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Bad news never travels alone. Following the stalling of talks on the future of Kosovo, a political crisis has now gripped Bosnia. The country's central government has not met for more than five weeks and one of its main constituent parties threatens to leave it altogether. This would incapacitate the government and could touch off Bosnia's disintegration. The consequences would be dire, not only for the Balkans but also for Europe. Since the end of the 1992-1995 war, the European Union has provided billions of euros of aid, thousands of peacekeepers and the "office of the high representative" to restore unity to Bosnia and to set it on the path to EU membership. If the country fragments now, nobody will take EU foreign policy seriously. The trouble began in October when Milorad Dodik, president of the Serb Republic, and Haris Silajdzic, the Bosniak member of Bosnia's collective presidency, blocked attempts to unify the country's police forces. To prevent such obstructionism in the future, high representative Miroslav Lajcak decided to allow the government to take decisions even when some ministers are absent. Mr Dodik saw this as jeopardising his ability to hinder Bosnia's central authorities and threatened to go into opposition if Mr Lajcak's measures came into effect on December 1, as scheduled. No Bosnian Serb leader is likely to want to replace Mr Dodik. Mr Lajcak may therefore have to choose between restoring direct international rule over Bosnia and seeing the country disintegrate. To make things worse, a declaration of independence by Kosovo - possibly coming in December - will further inflame secessionist sentiment among Bosnian Serbs. Serbia and Russia are not helping. Vojislav Kostunica, Serbia's prime minister, declared in October that Belgrade would "decisively defend" the Serb Republic. Mr Kostunica is using Bosnia as a bargaining chip to get a better deal for Serbia on Kosovo. To Moscow, Bosnia is a welcome means to obstruct the EU and to call attention to Russia's power. Every time Russian diplomats meet Serb Republic leaders, the latter become more uncompromising. Bosnia matters enormously to Europe. It is where the Europeans, frustrated by their inability to halt the 1992-1995 civil war, began to pursue common foreign and defence policy in earnest. If Europe cannot hold together a relatively small country in the middle of Europe, how does it propose to play a global role? EU institutions and member states urgently need to use their considerable powers in Bosnia to forestall a collapse. The EU has not always managed Bosnia well. It kept Mr Lajcak's predecessor, Christian Schwarz-Schilling, in place long after it became obvious that he lacked the skills to navigate Bosnia's murky political waters. It did better by - belatedly - replacing Mr Schwarz-Schilling with Mr Lajcak, a senior Slovak diplomat who oversaw Montenegro's successful referendum on independence. But while precious time was lost, separatist forces gathered strength. The EU is now discovering the full power of their resolve. The EU must be firm in insisting that it will defend the unity of Bosnia. Bosnia's Serbs signed the Dayton accords and have flourished in the new Bosnia, whose institutions give them a privileged position. If the country holds together it can expect to join the EU one day. First, the EU needs to reinforce its message of Bosnian unity. Europe and others have rightly expressed support for Mr Lajcak in a recent UN Security Council resolution. The EU should also push to extend Mr Lajcak's mandate. His powers to overrule Bosnia's national authorities are set to expire in June 2008 and it is becoming clear that the separatists have decided to wait for Mr Lajcak to go. The EU cannot extend his powers alone - this requires a wider agreement involving Russia, the US and the UN - but the EU needs to lean on its partners and make clear that it has the patience to prevail. Second, Mr Lajcak - now vilified by the Bosnian Serb and Serb media - must receive more explicit support from the EU. Bosnia's warring factions see that the EU is busy with Kosovo, Iran and other crises and hope that it is too distracted to give Mr Lajcak the support he needs. (The communiqué from the recent EU external relations council does not fully discuss Bosnia until page 33). The EU should tell Mr Lajcak to use his powers to run the country if necessary. Third, the EU needs to be ready to strengthen its military presence in Bosnia if needed. The force has dropped to 2,500 troops from the 60,000 Nato initially deployed in 1995. Mercifully, the EU governments are united over the future of Bosnia (which they are not on Kosovo). If they demonstrate resolve, they can convince a majority of Serbs that the EU has more to offer them than Russia. The eventual prize is EU membership and, potentially, the stability and prosperity that are now enjoyed by new EU citizens from Tallinn to Budapest. The writer is
director of foreign policy and defence at the Centre for European Reform.
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