Deutsche Welle, 15 December 2003
The EU question: integrate or separate? - Warsaw-Berlin relationship heading for rocks
Such strong-arm tactics, effectively a sanction policy on fellow member-states, could cause severe divisions. "Certainly the relationship between Warsaw and Berlin, has deteriorated over the past year," Daniel Keohane at the Centre for European Reform told Deutsche Welle, "and this won't help." Germany stood up for Poland at the Nice summit, Keohane said, and its behavior towards Germany now may cause lasting damage. "Madrid has a different relationship with Berlin. They have dealt with each other," Keohane said. "That division may recover sooner but things look bleak for Poland."

Financial Times, 15 December 2003
Support for two-speed Europe gathers momentum
But diplomats say attempts by the founding fathers to create a two-speed Europe out of Saturday's debacle will not be as easy as they think. For one thing, the weak US support for multilateral institutions is mirrored in Europe in waning support for integration. "National interests prevail over European ones increasingly," says Steven Everts, Europe expert at London's Centre for European Reform.

The Observer, 14 December 2003
Europe's grand folly - This weekend's summit was supposed to endorse a bright new EU constitution: instead, Poland and Germany walked out and now everything is on ice
"For many Eurosceptics, this is just like Maastricht all over again - a chance to have a go at many of the things they weren't able to block," says Heather Grabbe, deputy director of the pro-European Centre for European Reform. "But the biggest mistake has been raising expectations by saying we were going to have a great big constitutional debate and everyone could feed into it - and then it still ends up as haggling at 3am between prime ministers. And the dominant issues here are just not the ones that bother people that much."

The Seattle Times, 14 December 2003
Talks on new EU constitution collapse
"I'm not sure how this core Europe group is going to work, but it does worry people," said Daniel Keohane, a researcher with the Centre for European Reform, a research organisation based in London. "I think the French and Germans always like this Plan B option, to operate outside the EU."

Reuters, 14 December 2003
EU lurching towards enlargement in crisis
"The first few years of enlargement are going to be a very rocky ride," said Heather Grabbe, deputy director of the Centre for European Reform. "This was a time when the Union needed to be strong, but it will actually be divided and weak, concentrating on battles over money, jobs and power," she said.

EU Business, 14 December 2003
Brussles summit flop gets Blair off the referendum hook
"People who are calling for a referendum do so for political and ideological reasons," said Steven Everts of the Centre for European Reform, a London-based think-tank, as the EU leaders packed their bags Saturday and headed home. Overall, however, "I think Blair's done pretty well" at the summit, Everts told AFP. "This was a summit where Britain was not under pressure ... and Blair was positioning himself as a broker" between opposing sides.

Washington Post, 13 December 2003
Disputes hinder EU draft constitution - Power balance divides large and small nations
Some analysts suggested the countries could drop their backing for language on religion if they were assured of more voting weight. Said Daniel Keohane of the Centre for European Reform, a London-based organisation: "It will be interesting to see if Spain and Poland give up God for votes."

Radio Free Europe, 12 December 2003
Eastern Europe: US plan to redeploy bases stirs mixed feelings
Analyst Daniel Keohane, of the London-based Centre for European Reform, says Feith and Grossman's diplomatic tour signals that realignment plans have kicked into top gear. "Obviously, it's an indication that they're taking it very seriously and they are going to make some serious decisions quite soon," he told RFE/RL. "This is part of an ongoing process the Bush administration has been talking about - changing the US base structure in Europe - for well over a year now. And I think in this case, they're just trying to find out more details of what prospective host countries offer - whether they're just looking at this issue strategically or from a cost point of view as well." Daniel Keohane told RFE/RL: "I don't think, say, in Bulgaria, in Romania or in Poland, they can expect the same kind of economic impact that those Cold War bases had on those German towns - because, of course, these will be smaller bases, with very little personnel. It'll be a case of what they call 'frog pads' where American troops and transport and so on can pass through. But they won't be core bases, in the way [the huge US base at] Ramstein was. If we look, for example, at the role [those German bases] played during the Iraq war, they were absolutely crucial, so I wouldn't expect the bases in other countries to be as large. They will have an important strategic role, but they'll be very different types of bases form the static, large-scale bases that the US has in Germany."

International Herald Tribune, 12 December 2003
A common defence for the EU
Planning no longer wedded to NATO
Heather Grabbe, the director of research at the Centre for European Reform in London, said the new voting system would mean "there will be a lot more friction in the whole way of doing business." "Who's side are you on? becomes more of a bigger question on any given issue," she said.

BBC News, 12 December 2003
EU's new boys upset old hands
Heather Grabbe of the Centre for European Reform in London said: "The chances of reaching agreement in Brussels are 50-50. Voting rights is the biggest problem. It has produced divisions. It pits the larger against the smaller states, Germany and France against Poland and Spain." According to critics like Heather Grabbe, the deals to settle the new constitution will make it too complex. "The idea was to make the EU more simple, not more complicated. Yet the changes are no easier for the public to understand. It could be a great failure. The atmosphere is acrimonious. The Italian presidency has not done well. France and Germany threw their weight around over the stability pact and the small members feel bulldozed. There are fundamental divisions and there needs to be a package which buys everyone off — but that makes it even more complex."

The Christian Science Monitor, 12 December 2003
A house divided: EU struggles to lay new foundation
A refounded European Union on the other hand, guided by the constitution that creates an EU foreign minister and permanent president, would be a "credible force on the international scene, with an ability to speak with one voice in Washington, Beijing, and Moscow," says Heather Grabbe of the Centre for European Reform in London. "It's all about what kind of a union the EU wants to be."

The Daily Yomiuri, 10 December 2003
Poland giving EU jitters as entry data approaches
"As we know from the BSE crisis, EU consumers can be very difficult about food standards," says Katinka Barysch, an economist at the Centre for European Reform, in referring to mad cow disease. "There needs to be an improvement in the sanitary administration of Poland's dairies, abattoirs and butcheries."

EU Business, 10 December 2003
Tough talk aside, Britain has little to lose at EU summit
"The United Kingdom has a very long list of issues - most of which are not under massive attack," said Heather Grabbe of the Centre for European Reform, a London think-tank that specialises in EU affairs. "The 'red lines' are not under huge threat," said Grabbe ahead of the two-day summit that kicks off Friday in Brussels. "The UK has already got most of what it wants."

The New York Times, 10 December 2003
Pentagon rules on Iraq contracts draw criticism abroad
Countries like France and Germany, if they protest too loudly, may also expose themselves to criticism that their real interest in Iraq is commercial. And they may be loath to reopen the lingering divide with the United States over the war in Iraq in the first place. "It may be unacceptable, but it's not surprising," Steven Everts, a defence expert at the Centre for European Refrom in London, said of the American decision. The Wolfowitz memo, he added, was hardly "a bolt out of the blue." Mr Everts did find surprising what he said was Washington's effort to portray its stance as "a great step for internationalization of the Iraq situation."

Financial Times, 10 December 2003
Muscle in Brussels: as Europe meets to agree a constitution, disputes over the distribution of power loom large
These are not necessarily arcane issues: questions of who exercises the most power in Europe can still touch a raw nerve in public opinion. "I met a war veteran in the street in Warsaw who said Poland should have twice as many votes as Germany after what happened during the [second world] war," says Heather Grabbe, of the Centre for European Reform, a think-tank. "It has become quite visceral."

Bloomberg, 10 December 2003
EU, Canada criticize exclusion from Iraq contracts
In a letter accompanying the list, Wolfowitz said that "limiting competition for prime contracts will encourage the expansion of international co-operation in Iraq and future efforts." Steven Everts a security analyst at the Centre for European Reform in London, said this is likely to backfire. "What planet does Wolfowitz live on?" said Everts. "You can say that this is US tax money and they can spend it as they like, but don't try to pretend that this is a ploy to get more support. It's just going to be seen as spiteful."

Reuters, 9 December 2003
Blair faces crucial EU summit
Without London's support, Warsaw and Madrid may have been cowed into backing down, said Charles Grant of the Centre for European Reform. "Some, particularly in the Foreign Office, are very keen to thwart Franco-German dominance," he said.... " The British government does appear to be pulling in different directions," Grant said.

Financial Times, 9 December 2003
Nations at loggerheads over neutrality
The criteria for defence are more realistic than the targets set out at the 1999 Helsinki summit. Then, in order to put substance into the EU's security and defence policy, leaders agreed to set up a 60,000-strong rapid reaction force that could be deployed within 60 days and remain in a mission for up to a year. "In practice, 60,000 soldiers meant at least 180,000 because of regular rotation," says Daniel Keohane, security expert at London's Centre for European Reform.

Financial Times, 8 December 2003
Germany moves from soft touch to playing hardball
"The stagnation was a huge blow to German self-confidence," says Katinka Barysch, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform in London. "The only thing Germans could be proud of was their economic success. Now they were the sick man of Europe."[...]
For Ms Barysch, "Germany was the link that kept everything together. It was both the glue and grease of Europe, always ready to throw money at problems. It was the bridge between EU and US. It will be none of these from now on."

International Herald Tribune, 8 December 2003
In run-up to EU charter talks, pessimism and resentment
"The way in which France and Germany have tried to bulldozer is very damaging," said Heather Grabbe, director of research at the Center for European Reform in London.

The Herald, 8 December 2003
You want to be in our gang?
In the final convergence report before May 2004, Brussels pointed to health and safety issues that could impede the unhindered movement of Polish produce in Western markets, a major reason for Poland joining the EU in the first place. "As we know from the BSE crisis, EU consumers can be very difficult about food standards‚" says Katinka Barysch, an economist at the Centre for European Reform. "There needs to be an improvement in the sanitary administration of Poland's dairies, abattoirs, and butcheries."

EU Observer, 5 December 2003
EU ponders security link with Middle East
"In Europe and elsewhere people have, in the past, proposed and implemented regional security dialogues as a way of building confidence, reducing underlying political tensions, creating transparency on military manoeuvres, doctrines and what have you" explained the Centre for European Reform's Steven Everts, who also backs including Iran in the initiative. "With Saddam Hussein gone and everyone groping around for a constructive policy on Iran, now is a good time to take this forward", he said. "The point of this idea is to signal to the Iranians that we take their security interests seriously, but that for them going nuclear is not the answer - therefore it is incumbent upon us to provide a broader set of policies". "Some of the Iranian views on why they need nuclear weapons are paranoia and ideology, but some are built, in my view, on a justified feeling of being vulnerable". The move may also mark the start of a more robust EU foreign policy. "EU relationships with third countries tend to be very economics focused, it needs a good security political spin in my view for this to work", said Mr Everts.

CNS News, 5 December 2003
US, Europe claim victory in steel tariff repeal
Steven Everts of the London-based Centre for European Reform said that the end of the tariffs "was a sensible decision for everyone involved." "Bush clearly had to move, as the EU was on the verge of retaliating," Everts said. "On the other hand, the steel tariffs were effective." Everts predicted that a similar outcome could result from a dispute over foreign sales corporations, which allow American companies to claim tax breaks if they set up subsidiaries abroad. The WTO also ruled against the US in that cast last month, and Europe has planned retaliation worth hundreds of millions of dollars starting next March. "There's certainly a similar pattern," Everts said. "At some point in time, the US will have to amend its legislation to resolve the issue."

Financial Times, 5 December 2003
Words of war: Europe's first security doctrine backs away from American style pre-emptive military intervention
"It shows," says Steven Everts, security expert at the Centre for European Reform, a London think-tank, "that Britain, France and Germany have yet to overcome their fundamental differences over how Europe should respond to crises. Until they do so, Europe will not be as affective as it should."... " I am more optimistic than a few months ago largely because of what Tony Blair is doing," says Steven Everts of the Centre for European Reform. "Blair is slowly coming back to Europe. His problem with Europe sums up the problems with the security doctrine. Is Europe willing to make hard choices, particularly over improving military capabilities and the use of force?"

BBC News, 5 December 2003
Europe praises Bush steel repeal
Examining the tariffs decision, Charles Grant of the think-tank the Centre for European Reform, said: "I think it was the combination of internal domestic pressures plus the threat of sanctions, plus the fact that Mr Bush is keen to win allies around the world."

The Guardian, 5 December 2003
In Europe, simple addition could divide the union
Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, believes that France and Germany have behaved "so badly for so long" that their reasonable argument on what is probably the best available voting system for Europe will not get the hearing it deserves. In choosing to Back the Polish and Spanish positions, a choice Charles Grant describes as "ludicrous", the British have withheld support from the Germans and the French just as they were mending fences with them on defence and such issues as policy towards Iran.

The Independent, 2 December 2003
At last, Mr Blair has done a deal to gladden the hearts of pro-Europeans
What's more, the end to a largely theological dispute between the UK and France should, according to Charles Grant, who heads the Centre for European Reform, now allows the EU to focus on just that - extending Europe's defence capabilities. If Europe irritates Washington by being Venus to the US's Mars, it now has the opportunity to become a little more Martian. Britain, Grant adds, is now at the heart of EU defence, "which means that by definition it won't undermine Nato, which is the other reason the US should be relaxed."

Financial Times, 29 November 2003
Threat of UK-US rift over European defence
Tony Blair, the prime minister, is risking a rift with Washington by making a crucial concession to Jacques Chirac, the French president, on European Union defence co-operation. "It shows that Blair has understood that he needed to restore his credibility in Europe as someone who is not Bush's poodle, despite the reticence of the US administration and parts of the British government," said Charles Grant of the Centre for European Reform, a London-based think-tank.

The Times, 26 November 2003
Would it matter if Europe's constitution were abandoned?
What happens if it fails to come into effect?
Nothing. Maybe in the worst sense - nothing at all will get decided. But, in any case, the EU was going to have to live by the complexities of the Nice rules for several years until the constitution passed. Charles Grant of the Centre for European Reform, says that "living with Nice would not be a disaster". But he would regret losing the constitution's changes on the presidency, foreign policy and voting.

The Washington Post, 26 November 2003
Euro-Zone finance chiefs deal a blow to integration
France and Germany have openly discussed the possibility of establishing an outright "Franco-German union," if the EU's other members fail to respect their special needs. For the smaller countries, the decision Tuesday "reinforces the impression that some countries are more equal than others," said Katinka Barysch, chief economist with the Centre for European Reform, a London think-tank.

EU Business, 23 November 2003
Chirac, Aznar talks to focus Blair back on Europe
"Blair may well agree to more EU planners of some time, and so agree to the seeds of a more beefed-up EU planning capability - though maybe not called a headquarters," said Daniel Keohane of the Centre for European Reform in London. In return, Keohane told AFP, Blair will want "a clear statement" that if anyone did attack an EU member state, then NATO - not the European Union - would be the organisation to fight back.

Financial Times, 22 November 2003
Defence puts more strain on transatlantic bridge
The defence issue is by no means the only test of the US-EU relationship. According to Charles Grant, the director of the Centre for European Reform, there are others. He says a further deterioration in the Israeli-Palestinian situation could end up with France and Germany arguing that there is no scope left for a US-led peace initiative and that the EU must now take the lead.

Bloomberg, 21 November 2003
Poland Must Mend Cabinet Split Over Euro Adoption, IMF Says
"The timing of euro adoption will become an increasingly active concern after EU accession,'' said Schadler. Because Hausner's plan still hasn't gained support even within the ruling party, economists said it will not be credible for Poland to come now with any promised date of the euro convergence. "Setting the date seems for some economists the best disciplinary mechanism to force fiscal consolidation,'' said Katinka Barysch, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform in London. "The top priority now must be credibility and if Poland wants to set the date, it has to be realistic."

The Boston Globe, 20 November 2003
High ideals, few specifics
Charles Grant, director of the Center for European Reform, a London-based think tank, said Bush did little to change perceptions. "It was the same message we've heard. He has not given Europeans much reason to believe that he is leaving behind the cowboy, gun-slinging approach," Grant said. "The speech still had that moralistic and preachy tone."

The Washington Post, 20 November 2003
Speech Fails to Bridge Policy Divide
"This is a big source of tension between Britain and the United States," said Charles Grant, director of the Center for European Reform. "The British view is that Arafat, for all his faults, is a man who has power. And if you want peace in Palestine, you need to negotiate with the people in power, even if they do have blood on their hands."

The Guardian, 19 November 2003
Beyond the great divide
If Americans are from Mars and Europeans are from Venus, that spells big trouble here on Earth
Charles Grant, the shrewd director of the Centre for European Reform thinktank, wishes the US could see that legitimacy is not some European nicety. It would be in America's own interest. Witness, says Grant, the reluctance of Europeans to dip in their pockets for the US-led reconstruction of Iraq: "If you wage war on your own, the rest of the world won't be there to help you clear up."

Washington Post, 16 November 2003
Europeans Vindicated But Fearful About Iraq
"There's still quite a pronounced feeling among many Europeans that the Americans got themselves into this mess so why should we extend our blood and treasure to get them out," said Charles Grant, director of the Center for European Reform in London. "It's not that they want the Americans to fail. But I just don't see any European politician winning votes by saying let's give the Americans four or five billion dollars and 10,000 troops."

Reuters, 14 November 2003
Bush visit tests special relationship
With the transatlantic bridge still shaky, Blair must strike a balance between regaling Bush and proving wrong those who dub him America's "poodle," by advocating the EU's case on issues from Iraq's reconstruction to world trade, commentators say.
"If Blair wants to play the bridge role well, Blair has got to show he can bring both sides on board, and there hasn't been much sign of that lately," said Heather Grabbe, an analyst at the Centre for European Reform, a London-based think-tank.

APC, 13 November 2003
I paesi Ue riflettano di più su come influenzare gli Usa
Uscire dall'inferno di fuoco dell'Iraq ormai è molto difficile politicamente per i paesi europei che hanno seguito gli Stati Uniti nella guerra, ma quello che sta succedendo in Iraq può servire da lezione per questi paesi e per tutti gli europei su come influenzare di più la politica estera degli Usa, soprattutto negli scenari post-bellici. E' questa l'opinione di Daniel Keohane, esperto per la politica di sicurezza e difesa del Center for European Reform, "think-tank" londinese che crede nell'importanza dell'Europa come soggetto politico. "Non credo che sia interesse dei paesi europei che sono in Iraq, politicamente, andarsene prima degli Stati Uniti", afferma Keohane, "gli Usa recriminerebbero e rinfaccerebbero loro il fatto che nei Balcani hanno soccorso il Vecchio continente, e sono ancora in ballo". "Ma il problema principale per questi paesi, e per gli europei più in generale, è che hanno poca, molta poca influenza su come gli Stati Uniti conducono le loro guerre e i dopoguerra. Dovranno lavorarci in qualche modo, perché non è probabile che, alla lunga, le opinioni pubbliche accettino il fatto che si segua Washington in qualunque situazione per quanto pericolosa". Un problema che secondo Keohane riguarda anche la stessa Gran Bretagna, "pur con tutta la sua potenza militare". E lo studioso non rinuncia a una piccola provocazione: "Sarebbe interessante sapere se Berlusconi o Aznar abbiano chiesto dettagli a Bush sulla strategia di uscita nel dopoguerra e su un calendario per il passaggio della sovranità". In ogni caso però, l'esperto del Center for European Reform ritiene improbabile che l'amministrazione Bush voglia cambiare totalmente strategia, passando a un approccio più multilaterale in Iraq, come auspicato sempre più dagli europei dopo l'escalationd el terrore in Iraq: "Dubito che ora l'amministrazione Bush voglia davvero passare al multilateralismo: sarebbe un'ammissione della loro sconfitta - dice Keohane - anche se le cose potrebbero cambiare a seconda di quanto i democratici decidono di cavalcare questo tema per le elezioni". "Credo - conclude - che gli uomini di Bush siano piuttosto convinti di quello che fanno nonostante tutto: ora magari si daranno un calendario per il passaggio della sovranità agli iracheni, ma non è la stessa cosa che parlare di multilateralismo".

United Press International, 12 November 2003
EU plans border guard 'lite'
[...] backers of a more coordinated EU approach to border issues gave a cautious welcome to the commission's latest proposal.
"It is a step forward," said Heather Grabbe of the Center for European Reform think-tank. "But we are very far away from having a common border guard with mixed Italian, Estonian and Austrian police wearing peaked caps emblazoned with the EU logo."

Financial Times, 9 November 2003
EU braced for clash on Israel with Berlusconi
Steven Everts, foreign policy expert at London's Centre for European Reform, said: "Berlusconi has highlighted the flaws in the rotating presidency in attempts to project a coherent, consistent EU foreign policy. Berlusconi vividly demonstrates why we have to get rid of it."

Washington Times, 9 November 2003
Blair a casualty of U.K. support for Iraq war
Although their political orientations are different, Messrs. Bush and Blair share a number of attributes as political leaders. Both have an approach to politics that is pragmatic and instinctive, rather than ideological, and place great emphasis on personal relations with other leaders.
In addition, there are important similarities in their world views. According to Charles Grant, director of the Center for European Reform in London, both have a Manichean outlook on the world — seeing it in terms of good and evil — and challenge the long-standing principle of noninterference in the domestic affairs of sovereign countries.

The Prague Post, 7 November 2003
Report favorable on EU readiness
The EC has not prepared any sanctions for failure to erase "red points" by May 1, "but we will punish ourselves" by failing to comply, Roucek said, citing a possible loss of EU funds. Katinka Barysch, chief economist at the Center for European Reform in London, said direct financial penalties are unlikely, but the EC could impose trade barriers. "What the European Commission tries to do is continue carrying a stick [after accession], because it is quite clear that in many areas the new member states are not ready for the European market," Barysch said. "The EU has to have some mechanism to put continuous pressure [on new members]."

The Prague Post, 6 November 2003
Parties set sights on EU Parliament
On an individual level, analysts say, money, perks and the chance to play on a bigger political stage are all factors that will tempt some lawmakers to run for an EU Parliament seat. "It will be a much bigger political context to operate in," said Heather Grabbe, an EU-enlargement expert at the London-based Center for European Reform. "It is quite an exciting opportunity." [...]
Whether the campaign will resonate with voters and get them to the polls will not be clear until June, but the results should bode well for the party that gains the most votes. Grabbe, from the Center for European Reform, said EP elections often serve as proxy elections for the current government, meaning that if the CSSD does poorly, that performance could reflect on its chances in the 2006 government elections. "It can kick the teeth out of the current government," she said.

Radio Free Europe, 6 November 2003
Romania: Bucharest Gets Mixed Grades In Progress Toward EU Entry
Other analysts also point to the fact that the EU had to adopt a carrot-and-stick-type strategy in Romania's case. Enlargement expert Heather Grabbe of the London-based Center for European Reform said it is important for the EU to maintain its pressure on Romania, but that it is also crucial that the Romanian government be awarded for the progress already made. "What they've been trying to do by the carefully worded statement is to reassure the government that yes, they will get market-economy status if they continue the current reforms, and that these reforms are on the right track. But at the same time, they also were warning Romania and the investment community that things are still not good enough. Also, the EU has its own credibility to think about. If the EU said Romania is a market economy and there's still considerable problems, then that EU seal of approval will mean less," Grabbe said. [...] Grabbe of the Center for European Reform said the key question now is what impact the lukewarm report will have on Romania's domestic politics in light of next year's general elections. "For the EU, it doesn't actually make too much difference, in the sense that Romania will almost certainly get the market-economy status next year if it continues to implement the policies which are now in place," she said. "The question is whether or not this puts more pressure on the Nastase government and requires either some kind of a reshuffle of the government or, at least, some kind of reinforced mandate for it." [...] Heather Grabbe said Bulgaria too has a lot of work to do before it is ready to join. "It's not the case that Romania not being able to meet market-economy status will hold Bulgaria back, because Bulgaria is also not considered by the EU as ready to join yet," she said. "Bulgaria also has problems with administration, particularly with the state of the judiciary, and Bulgaria still has problems with corruption, too. And the EU has made it clear that it's worried about those [problems]. So I think Bulgaria shouldn't be too panicked about this development." Grabbe concluded that Bucharest and Sofia are "inevitably linked," since the EU is unlikely to take in just one country at a time. They may even become part of a second-wave troika, if Croatia meets its goal of becoming an official EU candidate next year.

Deutsche Welle, 5 November 2003
Langfristige Folgen im Fall Chodorkowski befürchtet
Die Vorgänge in Russland treiben Politikern wie Managern im Westen Sorgenfalten auf die Stirn. Möglicherweise, so spekuliert Katinka Barysch vom Londoner Centre for Economic Research, war es Ziel der Verhaftungsaktion, eine Liaison zwischen Yukos und westlichen Öl-Multis zu torpedieren. Und in der Tat: Mit der Verhaftung des Multi-Milliardärs liegt das größte westliche Investitionsvorhaben auf Eis: Marktführer Exxon wollte sich bei Yukos Oil einkaufen, deren Vorstandschef Chodorkowski war.

EUobserver, 5 November 2003
RUSSIA to be quizzed over nuclear aid to Iran
"The EU needs to stop having to react to a negative agenda", Steven Everts of the Centre for European Reform told the EUobserver, "Iran does have some legitimate security concerns".

Süddeutsche Zeitung, 5 November 2003
Die polnische Angst
"Treffend hat die britische EU-Expertin Heather Grabbe die westlichen Ängste beschrieben. Polen könnte zum Albtraum Europas werden, wenn es die griechische Unbestechlichkeit, die italienische Effizienz, Spaniens großzügigen Umgang mit EU-Strukturfonds, die französische Agrarpolitik und die britische Europa-Begeisterung kopiere."

EUobserver, 4 November 2003
EU warns Russia over Yukos affair
"The EU seems to have firmed up its position ... but what is required now is that the member states stand behind this", said Steven Everts of the London-based Centre for European Reform. "The EU does have a habit of tough talking at an EU level with the member states backing away. At a bilateral level Blair, Schröder and Chirac all think that they can handle Putin and of course they can't, Putin is quite a shrewd figure."

The New York Time, 3 November 2003
Budget Compromise Appears Probable for European Union
"If there is more pressure now on Germany to tighten its budget on top of what it was already planning to do, I could imagine that the Germans could get upset,'' said Katinka Barysch, an economics specialist at the Center for European Reform in London. "That might be one of the reasons why you hear so little from countries such as Spain and Greece,'' she said.

Süddeutsche Zeitung, 27 October 2003
Spekulationen über die Hintergründe
Möglicherweise, so spekuliert man beim Londoner Centre for Economic Reform (CER), sei es sogar das Ziel der Verhaftung gewesen, eine Liaison zwischen Yukos und westlichen Öl-Multis zu torpedieren. Eine solche Verbindung rieche für viele Russen nach Ausverkauf der Heimat und sei äußert unpopulär. Nicht auszuschließen ist nach Ansicht der Investmentbank Merrill Lynch, dass sich „eine Änderung ergibt, wer künftig die Kontrolle über Yukos hat“; CER-Chefvolkswirtin Katinka Barysch formuliert es deutlicher: Es könnte sogar zu einer Wieder-Verstaatlichung des größten russischen Öl-Konzerns kommen, der Mitte der neunziger Jahre zum Schleuderpreis privatisiert worden war.

San Francisco Chronicle, 26 October 2003
Spanish leader gains visibility despite divisions
He pays small price for pro-war stance
Last week's Madrid conference on Iraq's donor also brought mixed returns. [...] "Aznar's certainly gotten a lot of visibility internationally, and this conference was part of that," said Steven Everts, an analyst at the London- based Center for European Reform. "For a long time, nobody took Spain very seriously. Aznar's changed that." [...] "There is a feeling among some countries opposed to the war of 'Why should we be accommodating on the issue of voting rights, when you've broken camp on Iraq?' " Everts said.

International Herald Tribune, 17 October 2003
Letter: A European finance minister
Dan O'Brien is right that the European Union punches below its weight, certainly in foreign policy but also in economic matters ("Europe needs a finance minister," Views, Oct. 15). But this is not an argument for having a European finance minister.
Across the world, finance ministers' main concern is the management of the national budget. But the European Union's budget is tiny. So what would O'Brien's EU finance minister do? Manage the euro? Exchange-rate coordination has gone out of fashion, and for monetary policy there is the European Central Bank. Implement EU competition and trade policy, or disburse overseas aid, as O'Brien suggests? For that, the Union has dedicated trade, competition and aid commissioners.
O'Brien ends by saying that an EU finance minister would enable Europe to save the multilateral trading system. This is a fine goal, but Europe is unlikely to achieve it by repoliticizing its trade policy.
O'Brien's piece is like a good after-dinner speech: entertaining and thought-provoking but, upon reflection, unconvincing.
Katinka Barysch and Steven Everts, London

Financial Times, 15 October 2003
EU leaders at odds with ministers over defence
"Blair went on the front foot in Berlin because he knew closer co-operation between Berlin and Paris over defence was going to continue regardless," said Steven Everts, security expert at London's Centre for European Reform.

International Herald Tribune, 17 October 2003
Summit talk of close European military ties upsets U.S.
There were signs Thursday that smaller, traditionally pro-American countries could follow Britain's lead in lifting their objections to pan-European military planning and a larger EU military staff. "To some extent the smaller Atlanticists like the Dutch and Danish were making their positions very contingent on the British position," said Steven Everts, a defense expert and analyst at the Center for European Reform in London. Now that the British appear to have agreed to closer military cooperation for the European Union, the smaller countries will "have to move," Everts said.

The Guardian, 16 October 2003
Schröder and Chirac flaunt love affair at summit
"There's an amazing amount of emotion between the French and Germans," said Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform in London. "They went through this ordeal together. There are stories of them hugging each other."

Reuters, 9 October 2003
Spain playing high-stakes poker on EU constitution
Germany, the EU's major net contributor, has made veiled threats that its funding for the next EU budget for 2007-13 will depend on progress on the constitution, prompting speculation Spain could lose out financially if holds out against Berlin.
Daniel Keohane, research fellow at the Centre for European Reform in London, suggests the opposite may be true: Spain and Poland may be playing hardball on the constitution to secure a better deal in EU budget negotiations starting next year. He said there was a better chance Spain and Poland would give in on their constitutional demands "if their interests are more likely to be protected in the budgetary discussions".

Radio Free Europe, 9 October 2003
EU: Military Presence Evolving, Despite Difficulties
Dan Keohane, a military expert with the Centre for European Reform in London, explains the significance of the "hard core."
"Basically it is similar to the euro [single currency project] and the Schengen [integrated border control project], in that countries which want to cooperate more closely can go ahead and do so. And by that I mean they can harmonize certain military standards, they can pool certain military capabilities, like a common air transport command," Keohane said. What still remains is setting clear criteria for joining the "hard-core" group. British Prime Minister Tony Blair supports broad criteria which will quickly open the group to wide participation, presumably as a way of diluting any anti-American tendency among pro-Tervuren countries. Keohane says some of the things that are still open for debate are whether membership criteria should be "things like the amount of money spent on defense as a percentage of GDP, or the amount of the defense budget spent on equipment, or should it be [a] willingness to carry out higher-intensity war-fighting tasks as opposed to peacekeeping?" Keohane points out that these issues have to be resolved very soon, as the criteria are supposed to be incorporated in a protocol included in the EU's new constitutional treaty now being negotiated in Rome.

MSNBC, 9 October 2003
Doing badly, opposition worse
"The Conservatives have been spectacularly unsuccessful at capitalizing on Blair's woes," said Steven Everts, senior research fellow for the Center for European Reform (CER).

Reuters, 8 October 2003
Chirac left bruised but not bowed in US spat
In his speech to the UN General Assembly last month, Chirac avoided any mention of his earlier calls for a "multipolar world" in which the US would be just one of several "poles" of power and influence in the world. "He's realized it goes down very badly, both among the Brits and other European partners," said Charles Grant of London's Center for European Reform, noting it smacks of anti-Americanism despite Chirac's vehement assurances to the contrary. [...] No one believes the EU can rival the US as a military power any time soon. But Grant said if Washington took the EU seriously as a military force, Chirac's dream of an equal partnership across the Atlantic might come closer to reality. "Then Europe would be sufficiently influential so that the US would have to take its views into account when making decisions," he said.

U.S.A. today, 6 October 2003
NATO plans for more peacekeepers in Afghanistan
Separately, the United States has about 10,000 troops in Afghanistan searching for Osama bin Laden and attempting to crush Taliban militants.
"This will make it easier to stabilize what is a very fragile situation in Afghanistan," said Steven Everts, director of the trans-Atlantic program for the Centre for European Reform in London. "Things are not going well. ... The (Hamid) Karzai government is in a weak position, warlord-ism is on the increase, and if you want to stem that trend you need a more robust NATO effort." [...]
Expanding in Afghanistan "is tough (militarily), but politically it's easier than Iraq is. But everyone knows that's the one we have to grapple with next," Everts said.

MSNBC, 3 October 2003
'Testing time' for Britain's Blair
Although domestic issues and the state of the U.K. economy usually interest voters more than foreign policy, "with the questions over Iraq's weapons, the difficulties the coalition is experiencing, and the Hutton inquiry, there is a broader disenchantment with the government," said Steven Everts, Senior research fellow at the Center for European Reform.[...]
"Blair and [Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon] Brown talked about policies that are hard to stomach, but proved that they follow their ideals,"she said. Everts, the Senior research fellow at the Center for European Reform, predicted that Blair's ratings would improve following the conference.
"He's done enough to regain some of the people he lost but it's not the beginning of a new love affair between Blair and British people," he said.

EUROPEAN VOICE, 2 October 2003
EU pensions in peril
Europe must get to grips with the problems posed by its greying population or face a falling growth rate and ever-increasing pension liabilities, according to the Centre for European Reform (CER) think-tank.
In a new report, Old Europe? Demographic Change and Pension Reform, author David Willetts argues that, while France and Germany must reform their state pensions systems, Britain needs to tackle a low savings rate and the crisis in company pension funds. The EU workforce is destined to fall by 20% by 2050, with a consequent drop in gross domestic product. Meanwhile, thanks to increased life expectancy and a fall in the birth-rate since the 1970s, state-pension schemes, which enable today's employees to finance the pensions of yesterday's workers, are based on the assumption that the latter hugely outnumber the retired. This may no longer be sustainable.
The Economist estimates that the current worker-pensioner ratio in Europe has fallen to around three workers to each pensioner, and looks set to fall to a mere three workers for every two pensioners within 30 years.

Financial Times Deutschland 25 September 2003
Berlusconi wird Belastung für EU-Reform
Heather Grabbe, stellvertretende Direktorin des Londoner Centre for European Reform sagte zur "Causa Berlusconi", die EU-Staats- und Regierungschefs seien nunmal in der peinlichen Lage, dass sie "einen der Ihren" nicht öffentlich attackieren könnten und wollten. Außerdem weise der EU-Vertrag die Schwäche auf, dass nicht richtig "durchbuchstabiert" werde, was die europäischen Kriterien für die Transparenz der Medien seien.

International Herald Tribune, 24 September 2003
'Eurostat affair' nears a finale in Parliament
"I suspect that if this had happened in a national statistics agency there would have been very little discussion of it," said Heather Grabbe, the director of research at the Center for European Reform in London. "Some people would have been prosecuted and it would have been dealt with fairly quickly." The Eurostat affair, Grabbe said, "got rather out of proportion." Prodi is expected on Thursday to shed light on what until now has been a controversy with very few concrete details. News accounts have repeated allegations from French prosecutors that the statistical agency was subject to a "vast enterprise of looting." The European Commission is also investigating charges that the agency wrote inflated or fictitious contracts. [...] Grabbe of the Center for European Reform said the current investigation, rather than making the EU more efficient, could have the unintended consequence of making the legendary bureaucracy more sluggish. "Paranoia about corruption and the misuse of funds has actually meant that the EU has gone overboard in making its procedures for dispersing money more and more complicated," Grabbe said.

The Guardian, 24 September 2003
Making it easier to be a mother
The Tories have - shockingly - produced a feminist manifesto
A remarkable document has emerged from the Conservative frontbench. Search it from cover to cover and few would guess its provenance. Its deceptively dull title hides a radical departure: Old Europe? Demographic change and pension reform, by David Willetts, the shadow secretary for work and pensions, transforms Conservative family policy. [...] Willetts analyses Europe's shrinking workforce, destined to fall 20% by 2050, lowering GDP growth. How is an ageing population to be paid for by too few workers? He offers practical and non-ideological solutions: first, expand the workforce by getting as many people of all ages into work as possible; second, increase immigration; and third, and most important, have more babies.

Washington Post, 24 September 2003
Euro Facing a Major Test
Zone Nations Show Willingness to Break Ranks
"What the euro was supposed to do is introduce a single currency to supplement the single European market by lowering barriers to trade," said Katinka Barysch, an economist at the London-based Center for European Reform, who considers herself one of the optimists. "Is the euro doing what it was supposed to do? I would say yes."

San Francisco Chronicle, 23 September 2003
U.N. feels the heat from Bush's hard line
Chirac emphasized that France would almost certainly not veto the U.S. resolution.
"We are gliding toward some form of deal at the United Nations," said Steven Everts, an analyst at the Center for European Reform in London. "The differences have narrowed. Everyone agrees on a swift transfer of authority (to Iraqi authorities), and we pay diplomats to fudge the meaning of 'swift.' "Bush and Blair need a deal just as much as Chirac, Schroeder and Putin. The alternative to doing a deal, i.e. the status quo, is too unattractive."

Aljazeerah, Reuters, Arab News, 20 September 2003
Blair May Have Squandered Historic Opportunity
Heather Grabbe, an analyst at the Centre for European Reform, said Iraq and the euro have overshadowed Blair's other important achievements in Europe, such as launching Europe's own defense capability with France. As one former European prime minister recently said to Grabbe, “Tony Blair used to be thought of as a potentially great European leader, now he is seen as an interesting British prime minister.”

Associated Press, 19 September 2003
Blair seeks to mend European relations
"Neither Britain, France or Germany can fulfill their objectives in Europe without the three of them working together more constructively than they have done," said Charles Grant, director of the London-based Center for European Reform.[...]
The three leaders have some common objectives. Grant said they are concerned "the small countries will be too influential" when the EU expands into a 25-member bloc in May. The heads of state believe "Europe needs the leadership of the big three, particularly on questions of foreign and defense policy," he added. Grant said they also are likely to discuss the EU stability and growth pact, that limits deficits to 3 percent of gross national product. Both France and Germany are currently above the limit.

CS monitor, 17 September 2003
Swedish 'no' vote on euro reverberates in Britain
"The countries inside the euro zone are impatient with the outs," says Katinka Barysch, chief economist at the Center for European Reform, a pro-European think tank here. "The euro-zone countries will have to decide what they can do to make the euro work, and they can't have the other countries meddling in that." Euro enthusiasts also argue that foreign investors, principally from the United States and Asia, want Britain to adopt the euro to give them a toehold in the formidable euro-zone market. Failure to join could send investors elsewhere. "The share of foreign direct investment going to the UK and Sweden and Denmark has fallen substantially, " says Ms. Barysch. "If Britain thinks it can afford that then fine; but I don't think it can."

International Herald Tribune, 16 September 2003
'No' vote on euro: Fault lines appear
[...] Prime Minister Tony's Blair's government, locked in a crisis of credibility over the war in Iraq, had already postponed a promised effort to start a pro-euro "road show" this summer. "Britain will feel much more comfortable in a well-defined club of outsiders," Barysch said.
Blair's spokesman reiterated Monday that British membership depended on arriving at a "clear and unambiguous" assessment that it would be in Britain's economic interest to join. But the prospect of efforts toward a referendum before the next national election, expected by 2006 at the latest, seemed even more remote in light of Blair's political woes. Even before the Swedish vote it had been "quite unlikely that the Blair government would call a referendum" before the next election, Barysch said.

The New York Times, 16 September 2003
Without Glue of Euro, Bond May Dissolve
"The dog that never barked in the European Union is this notion of reinforced cooperation, where some countries go ahead in different areas — internal security, defense and now the euro," said Katinka Barysch, chief economist at the Center for European Reform, in London. "We are heading to a new debate about a European Union with much larger internal differences."

Radio Free Europe, 15 September 2003
Western Press Review: Estonia Votes 'Yes' To EU, Postenlargement Political Shifts, And Impasse At The WTO
In a contribution to the "International Herald Tribune," Heather Grabbe of the Center for European Reform says the first few years after the EU's May 2004 enlargement "will be a turbulent period for European politics. The 10 newcomers will upset the balance of power between the existing 15 members. New coalitions of interests will emerge, while some of the long-standing partnerships could wither away."
New members "will have little time to learn the basics" before they have to start fighting for their own interests within the union. And their votes will be "wild cards in the game," whereas the 15 current members often know each other's position ahead of negotiations. Most significantly, she says, the EU's Franco-German engine will no longer dominate decision making in the EU. Paris and Berlin "will no longer be able to pre-cook deals bilaterally and then impose them on the rest of the EU." Priorities will shift as well in an expanded EU, and Brussels might find an emphasis on "policies concerning the EU's eastern neighbors and the protection of minorities [taking] over from old policies such as agriculture and energy." Grabbe says the EU's current 15 "are beginning to understand that enlargement is not just a question of greater numbers but of new political dynamics too. The politics of Europe are about to become more unpredictable -- and more exciting."

EU Business, 10 September 2003
Swedish euro vote stirs debate in sceptical Britain
"If the Swedish government fails to win this vote it's probably got some rather negative lessons for the pro-camp here," said Alasdair Murray, an economist at the Centre for European Reform, a London-based think-tank. But the vote is expected to have only a modest impact on public opinion in Britain, where media coverage of the event has so far been largely drowned out by a furore over the way the government presented the case for war on Iraq. "Whilst I suspect the anti-euro tabloids such as the Sun and the Mail will make play of any "no" vote, it's not going to lodge greatly in the consciousness of the average British voter," said Murray.

BBC news, 29 August 2003
EU to press Iran on nuclear plans
The European Union is expected to put pressure on Iran to accept nuclear inspections when its foreign policy chief, Javier Solana, visits Tehran on Friday.
Analyst Steven Everts, of the Centre for European Reform in London, told the BBC he expected Mr Solana's message to Tehran to be fairly tough. "The EU will emphasise that Iran has to make a move, particularly on this additional protocol, which means accepting challenged, tough inspections," he said. There's no question of negotiating the precise context of the protocol - the protocol is a text which already exists. The question is whether Iran is willing to sign and implement it."

Washington Post, 3 August 2003
Right-Hand Manning
For Tony Blair's Foreign-Policy Guru, a New Role in the New World
The British, who have a word for everything, have one for someone like Manning. "A mandarin is a civil servant who is known to be knowledgeable and urbane and who wields power from behind the scenes," said Charles Grant, director of the Center for European Reform, a London research organization. "David Manning is the quintessential mandarin." [...] Critics point to other mistakes Blair and Manning have made in recent months. [...] Sometimes Blair's infectious optimism overcomes his common sense, said the Center for European Reform's Charles Grant. And, he and others argue, British officials, including Manning, are too quick to toe the American line.

International Herald Tribune, 2 August 2003
The Economist fires blistering salvo at Berlusconi
"People have been trying to ignore him — he's been the embarrassing relative at the family gathering,"said Heather Grabbe, a research director for the Center for European Reform, an independent policy group in London."Now,'' Grabbe added, ''the rest of Europe cannot look in the other direction anymore." She was referring to the fact that a month ago, Italy stepped into the union's rotating, six-month presidency, putting Berlusconi at the center of the continent's stage.

Washington Post, 30 July 2003
Security Curtain Raised Along EU's New Eastern Front
Tightened Borders Draw Concerns About Impact on Neighboring Nations
Many analysts question whether the EU, as it expands its frontiers, is creating new divisions on the continent - between rich and poor, those reaping the benefits of EU membership on the inside and those left out - that could create new tensions and potential instability. "It's a huge issue," said Heather Grabbe, a researcher with the Center for European Reform, a research organization in London. "There's a lot of talk about 'Fortress Europe' and the feeling of being left out," she said. "That's one of the sad things about EU enlargement; it does have this exclusionary impact." That effect could have far-reaching consequences, Grabbe and other experts said. At present, "out" countries Ukraine, Moldova and Belarus have per capita gross domestic products that are a small fraction of the average of the EU's current members. Each of the 10 new countries coming into the EU next year also has a lower per capita gross domestic product than the current members, but the average is about double that of the "outs." Grabbe and others said the continuing exclusion of such countries as Ukraine, Moldavia and Belarus could help ensure that they remain far behind economically. The question of exclusion goes to the heart of the still-unresolved debate within the European Union over where expansion should end. What, exactly, defines Europe? Is it 25 countries? 27? Or 45?

Radio Free Europe, 23 July 2003
Iran: EU Expected To Stand Firm On Its Ultimatum To Tehran
Steven Everts, a senior analyst with the London-based Centre for European Reform, says providing full access to UN nuclear inspectors is the "absolute minimum" Iran needs to do to stave off EU retribution: "It's my firm expectation that if Mohammed ElBaradei reports back in September and says, 'I'm getting nowhere with Tehran. They're still not addressing these precise questions on the number of nuclear facilities, and they're not willing to accept these tougher inspections,' then I expect the EU to say that [under] these circumstances, the trade talks cannot continue."
Everts says other questions - such as missile technology, the country's alleged support of Palestinian militants, or its worsening human rights record - are comparatively less topical. Everts says the "crunch time" for the EU has yet to come, indicating divisions could re-emerge as matters escalate. But he notes the robust stance adopted by the EU represents an "encouraging" improvement over what has gone on before. Everts says that by letting Iran off the hook, the EU would undermine the very multilateral regime of conflict prevention and resolution it says it stands for: "If we don't stand up for these agreements, then what is the role of the EU internationally? We have to support the rules, but, at the same time, we have to be prepared to act tough when the rules are broken. And at the moment, Iran's breaking the rules."

Washington Post, 22 July 2003
A Generation on the Move in Europe
For Continent's Young, Borders Are No Longer an Obstacle
"This is a borderless Europe," said Daniel Keohane, a 27-year-old Irishman working as a researcher for the London-based Center for European Reform. "Me and my friends, we all worked in Germany over the summer." He added, "We take these things for granted."

International Herald Tribune, 21 July 2003
As economies slow, Europe finds reforms easier to take
Continental Europe's core economies - France and Germany, which stood idle in the past while smaller neighbors made significant structural changes - are in the vanguard this time. "Though there is a long way to go, there has been a sea change in attitude and approach in the last half-year," said Alasdair Murray, director of the economic and social policy unit of the London-based Center for European Reform.

Washington Post, 16 July 2003
Allies Didn't Share All Intelligence on Iraq
Mistrust Between Britain, U.S. Surfaces in Controversy Over Alleged Uranium Deal
Analysts say Blair is resigned to receiving a continued battering on the issue until weapons inspectors scouring Iraq come up with firm evidence that Hussein had or was developing weapons of mass destruction. "It wasn't evident to most people that we had to have this war, but Blair proved his case by arguing so passionately about weapons of mass destruction," said Charles Grant of the Center for European Reform, a nonprofit research group. "Now people feel they were persuaded on false pretenses. He's got to work really hard to rebuild that trust."

Financial Times, 14 July 2003
Congo the test for EU's peacekeeping skills
When Javier Solana arrives in the Congolese capital of Kinshasa and later travels north-east to Bunia where 1,400 French-led EU troops are involved in their first peacekeeping mission in Africa, the EU's foreign policy chief will see if Europe can make a difference.
"Solana was taking the European Security and Defence Policy to the ground to make the Europeans stop talking about theory and capabilities and instead carry out a mission," said Steven Everts, foreign policy analyst at London's Centre for European Reform.

EU business, 13 July 2003
EU ministers to study Italian presidency growth plan
Alasdair Murray, an economics expert at the London-based Centre for European Reform, said that announcing a vast infrastructure package was a "tried and trusted way" for governments to deal with weak economic growth. "It's not likely to yield any great benefits in the short term," he said adding that at most it might "make a difference at the margins".

Financial Times, 11 July 2003
Follow my leaders
At the moment, under EU rules, foreign policy decisions have to be unanimously agreed by all 15 countries' foreign ministers. Every six months, one of the 15 member states has a turn as president of the EU. And it is that country's foreign minister, not Solana, who chairs the General Affairs and External Affairs Council, the body in which governments discuss foreign affairs. "Once a country assumes the presidency, the foreign minister says to Solana, 'Oh, don't worry, we rely on you. You set the foreign policy. That is your mandate,'" says Steven Everts, foreign policy analyst at the London-based Centre for European Reform. "But I tell you from experience at monitoring these presidencies, once they get on to the podium and the foreign minister knows he or she has the cameras there, they take over. This is their six months of glory."

International Herald Tribune, 10 July 2003
Damage done, Italy turns on the charm
"The presidency is all about persuasion," said Heather Grabbe, the director of research at the Center for European Reform in London. "You have to be very diplomatic, very statesmanlike - an honest broker." She added, "You shoot yourself in the foot the minute you start to insult your neighbors, and you start to look undiplomatic."

EU Observer, 8 July 2003
EU-US relations at new low
Relations between the US and the EU are at their lowest point for at least a generation, according to a report published 8 July by the House of Lords in the UK. [...] Charles Grant, the Director of the Centre for European Reform, is quoted in the report as saying: "the British philosophy is if we get our act together as Europeans and become more effective... then we can help our partners across the Atlantic... and then they will respect us... because we are useful... The French philosophy is that Europe needs to get its act together so that it can stand up when necessary and indeed challenge the US."

Dow Jones Newswires, 30 June 2003
Berlusconi Is Poised to Lead EU - Italian Prime Minister Has Few Friends or Allies as He Steps Into President's Role
Mr. Berlusconi "doesn't have the political capital to mend fences," said Steven Everts, senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform in London.

The Guardian, June 28, 2003
He built a Milanese utopia but can Silvio Berlusconi be trusted with the future of the EU?
"People are suspicious because they don't exactly know where he [Mr Berlusconi] stands." said Daniel Keohane, a research fellow at the Centre for European Reform, a London-based thinktank.

Dagens Nyheter, 25 June 2003
EU promises US to invest more in defense
EU leaders welcomed High Representative Javier Solana's draft proposal for a new security strategy, and it will be one of the main issues at today's transatlantic summit. Analysts believe the US will approve the proposal. in particular, it shows how seriously the EU takes the threat of terrorism. The draft says the EU should have a more ambitious security policy and uses a tough language, says Daniel Keohane, at the Center for European Reform. It remains unclear under what conditions the EU can use military force.

Deutsche Presse-Agentur, 24 June 2003
Europe looks to Berlusconi's presidency with concern
"Berlusconi is neither the most respected nor the most liked leader in the European Union. There is a general sense of distrust towards
him, mainly because of the way the international media has portrayed him in dealing with his own judicial woes," Daniel Keohane, a research fellow at the Centre for European Reform, a London-based think-tank, told dpa. According to Keohane, one of the key aspects of holding the E.U.'s rotating presidency is a capacity to set the agenda. "In Berlusconi's case, however, people are suspicious because they don't exactly know where he stands. He often gives the impression of wanting to merely go with the flow," Keohane said. Keohane argues that effective diplomatic skills are essential, as the E.U. president "must be seen to be neutral". But experts in Rome say Berlusconi cannot be described as a master in the art of diplomacy.

Voice of America, 19 June 2003
EU Summit Begins in Greece Amid Tight Security
Experts like Steven Everts, at London's Center for European Reform, say hard bargaining lies ahead. "When it comes to deciding the exact powers of the European Council president, when it comes to the exact terms under which the Commission president will be elected, and whether he or she will be able to sack individual commissioners or not, the real power battle is ahead," he said. "And I think that, in the weeks and months ahead, we are going to see some blood in the street on those questions."
The EU leaders are also expected to try to patch up relations with the United States in the wake of the Iraq war. And some, as analyst Steven Everts points out, are hoping the EU can play a role in helping to implement the Middle East peace plan known as the road map. "One idea in that area that is bubbling around is the idea of a peacekeeping force to be sent to the West Bank and Gaza, the idea being that the road map says that Israel should withdraw from the occupied territories, but everybody's very concerned that a security vacuum might emerge," explained Mr. Everts.

International Herald Tribune, 18 June 2003
Romania dangles use of a sea base to woo U.S.
Heather Grabbe, director of research at the Center for European Reform in London, says Romania's recent diplomatic moves may have hurt its chances for entry into the Union. "I'm not exactly sure Romania has played it that well," Grabbe said. "U.S. pressure and favoritism toward them is actually counterproductive," Grabbe added.

The Mercury News, 18 June 2003
EU struggling to find one voice
Across Europe, people in the center and center-left increasingly are seeing EU integration as a way of moderating U.S. power, said Steven Everts, the transatlantic specialist for the Centre for European Reform in London. "This is significant. It is not the only factor in whether one joins the union, but how you deal with American power is an important one."

The Star, Africa, 17 June 2003
Fears that tighter EU controls on refugees could fuel xenophobia
"A lot of the governments across the EU, both centre-right and centre-left, feel they have to move rightwards to keep control of the debate. "If they don't, they lose ownership of the issue and open up a space for the far-right," said Adam Townsend of the London-based Centre for European Reform think-tank.

Daily Telegraph, 16 June 2003
EU calls on Iran to open nuclear sites
Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, said the French share CIA assessments that Iran is two or three years away from developing nuclear weapons. "The French have always been tough on weapons of mass destruction. The problem over Iraq was not about the use of force but about letting the US attack whenever it felt like it, without authorisation," he said. "The German position was quite different, since Berlin was against the use of force on principle."

Newsweek, 14 June 2003
What new Europe?
As Heather Grabbe, research director of the Centre for European Reform in London, points out in a recent paper, workers in Bratislava now assemble German cars and Hungarian researchers develop software for Finnish mobile-phone companies. Since fast- and slow-growing economies typically pursue opposite fiscal and monetary policies, the East seemed destined to clash with the West. [...] In a recent scorecard of progress toward Europe's goal of creating the most competitive economy in the world, the Centre for European Reform ranked new entrants like Poland as 'heroes' in many areas of reform, while France and Germany often fell in the 'villain'column. [...] "The accession countries have liberalized," says Grabbe. "But they still cling to social-democratic ideals."

The Economist, 14 June 2003
Back into the fold
Heather Grabbe, of the Centre for European Reform, a British think-tank, sees problems ahead if Poland goes into the Union with too little long-term strategy and too great an interest in short-term gains.
The nightmare scenario, says Ms Grabbe, would be a Poland which was "Spanish on the budget (fighting tooth and nail for every euro), French in defending the common agricultural policy, British in its pro-Americanism, Danish in its Euroscepticism, and Italian in its chaotic public administration."

The Australian, 13 June 2003
EU charter draft finalised
The negotiations were like "three-dimensional chess", said Steven Everts, of the Centre for European Reform. The contradictions between those anxious to protect national sovereignty, such as Britain, and those who believe the future of Europe lies in federalism, such as Germany, dominated the agenda. Fears of smaller countries that they would be overruled by bigger nations constituted a second tier of antagonism.

The Prague Post, 12 June 2003
Experts predict slow integration
"It is not going to change much," said Heather Grabbe, an EU-enlargement expert at the London-based Center for European Reform. "The economic integration has already happened." [...] Pensions, which will remain under state control, are not likely to be affected. Prices and wages will not increase dramatically. The amount of foreign investment is also expected to hold steady for the first couple of years after membership. National identity, said Grabbe, will not be compromised. Grabbe said more money will flow into the country, but fixed expenditures will put a greater squeeze on national spending, as the country shares the burden of financing new EU projects. For example, 250 billion Kc ($9.3 million), roughly one-third of the state budget, has been earmarked to clean up the environment over the next seven years to meet EU standards. "The combination could be difficult," Grabbe said. She said the impact would not be felt in May, but by 2005 and 2006, the country could face serious spending cuts, which will put a strain on government institutions. "People will notice that there is not money for public services or they can't spend money on education," Grabbe said. "The EU could be blamed for the fiscal problems," she added.

L'express, 12 June 2003
Albion recale l'euro
«Si les journaux se sont ainsi acharnés, c'est parce qu'ils savaient que Gordon Brown annoncerait un ''non'' à l'euro le 9 juin», avance Heather Grabbe, chercheuse au Centre for European Reform, un think-tank londonien.

Bloomberg, 10 June 2003
Polish Premier Seeks Confidence Vote After Referendum Success
"Miller is trying to take advantage of the referendum success,'' said Heather Grabbe, research director at the Centre for European Reform in London. "He's not trying really to check what support he has, but rather calculating strategy to buy some time and avoid early elections.''[...]
"Cabinet reshuffles are easier than early elections,'' said Grabbe. ``There is no evidence so far that Miller is able to make any deeper changes.''

International Herald Tribune, 10 June 2003
Britain may vote on euro next year
"They have got different starting points," said Charles Grant, head of the Center for European Reform, a pro-euro private policy group.
Brown "doesn't think that we should go in just for political reasons," he said. "Blair's starting point is the politics of Britain's position in Europe. The combination of lining up with the United States on Iraq and saying no to the euro really weakens his hand in other European projects, like the new European constitution." But that would change if "our partners think we are serious about joining. If we are seen as a 'pre-in,' particularly on the referendum, then our voice will carry more weight. But if we stay outside none is going to pay that much attention." Blair knows that if he does not hold a referendum on the euro, history will depict him as "Mister Not Yet," Grant said. With the speech on Monday, Grant said, Brown maintained his right to make the economic assessments that will determine whether a referendum is called next year. And Blair "gets out of it a clear statement from Brown that there are many economic benefits to joining the euro."

International Herald Tribune, 10 June 2003
News Analysis: Berlin sees new power fall in its lap
"It fell in their lap," said Heather Grabbe, the director of research at the Center for European Reform in London, referring to the greater voting clout. "Germany is still the sleeping giant of Europe." Three years ago, when EU leaders met in Nice in a first attempt to reform the voting system for the growing Union, France's president, Jacques Chirac," nearly caused the talks to collapse by insisting that Germany and France be given the same voting weight. [...] Grabbe says Giscard's support of the new voting system provided legitimacy for Germany. "The reason why Germany got away with it was because it was put forward by the former president of France," Grabbe said. "The fact that Germany wasn't lobbying behind the scenes allowed France to back down gracefully," Grabbe added. "Chirac didn't have egg on his face."

The Washington Post, 10 June 2003
Britain Delays Adopting the European Currency
Charles Grant, director of the Center for European Reform, a research organization in London that supports Britain's use of the euro, was optimistic about the long-term prospects. Brown "said just enough to think that the government is serious about getting us in there, and will take the necessary steps to get us in," Grant said.

The Financial Times, 9 June 2003
After the vote, the doubts
Heather Grabbe, deputy director of the Centre for European Reform, a London think-tank, says that, in the enlarged EU, flexible alliances are likely to emerge rather than long-term pacts. Danuta Hubner, the European integration minister, agrees. Poland, she argues, will not be a small state with two or three fixed interests in the EU but a big state with many interests.

The Australian, 9 June 2003
UK on euro defence
Alasdair Murray, an economics analyst with the London-based Centre for European Reform, called Brown's speech "a beautifully crafted but wonderfully ambiguous statement." "The pros will seize on the fact that he talked of the significant long-term benefits of euro entry," said Murray. "The antis will of course say but he hasn't committed to anything at all. There's no referendum date, there's no clear sign that any of these problems will be resolved in the near future."

Reuters, 9 June 2003
Britain buys time in Europe with euro verdict
Heather Grabbe, research director at the Centre for European Reform, said Britain would have been in a stronger position to win the economic arguments in Brussels if Brown had set a date for reconsidering euro entry. "These are warm words, but we are still not actually getting a timetable," she said.

CNN.com, 9 June 2003
Analysis: Irony in euro decision
The result, experts predict, is that Europe will lose trust in Blair. "Just a couple of years ago a lot of European nations thought Tony Blair was indeed the strongest European leader," Katinka Barysch of the Centre for European Reform told CNN. "He is now just seen as a national leader and his credibility in Europe is of course going to suffer."

CNN.Com, 9 June 2003
Brown to rule out euro for now
If Blair has not succeeded in persuading Brown, his authority will be badly dented. Blair fears the loss of influence in the European Union if Britain stays out of the euro. Britain, Denmark and Sweden are the only three countries in the 15-nation EU that have stuck with their own currencies since the euro's launch in 1999. "It would certainly be seen as a lack of commitment. What's important here is not necessarily the timing, as in saying they will have the referendum this year or next year. It is the commitment that the European countries would like to see because they are getting really tired of Britain blowing hot and cold on the euro and on the European Union in general," said Katinka Barysch.

The Star Ledger, 9 June 2003
Poles back entry into European Union
The strong mandate will boost Poland's confidence as it gets ready to join Germany, France, Italy, Britain and Spain in the EU's powerful "big six" club. "Poland will be seen as having a true European vocation. They won't be arguing like the Brits still are 30 years on," said Heather Grabbe at the Centre for European Reform in London.

Radio Free Europe, 9 June 2003
Poland: After EU Vote, Poles Wonder Where They Go From Here
Dan Keohane, an analyst with the Center for European Reform in London, says, "There will be so much momentum behind the pro-European sides in the remaining referendums, that it should help carry the day there." For Poland itself, the simple decision of "yes" or "no" has not changed the bleaker situation on the ground. Record unemployment, exhaustion with the transition process, stalled reforms, and deep distrust of the minority government of leftist Prime Minister Leszek Miller all remain. "The situation in Poland being as it is, I don't know how quickly it can be sorted out," Keohane says. "The EU is not going to sort out all of Poland's problems. Poland will have to sort most of them out itself."

Agence France Presse, 8 juin 2003
La presse conservatrice britannique, obstacle à l'adoption de l'euro
Pour Daniel Keohane, chercheur au Centre pour la réforme européenne, le gouvernement de Tony Blair a été "pris de court" par cette polémique sur la Constitution européenne. Le report de quelques années d'un référendum sur l'euro, vraisemblablement annoncé lundi, a déplacé le débat.
L'attaque est bien évidemment orchestrée par le parti conservateur, "conscient de pouvoir faire mal au parti travailliste sur la question générale de l'Europe, qui a toujours été le point faible du Labour auprès de l'opinion publique", analyse M. Keohane, en critiquant la piètre communication du gouvernement sur le sujet. "Il n'y a pas un haut niveau d'information au Royaume-Uni sur l'Union européenne. L'idée qu'il y a le Royaume-Uni d'un côté et l'Europe de l'autre est très présente, et la presse de droite exploite cela très bien", résume-t-il. "Ironie de la situation, Murdoch et Black, tous deux très eurosceptiques, ne sont pas d'origine britannique", remarque M. Keohane. Mais cette curiosité ne suscite pas de débat politique dans le pays, sans doute parce que "l'un vient d'Australie et l'autre du Canada" (deux pays du Commonwealth) et qu'ils font partie du monde anglophone.

The Arizona Republic, 8 June 2003
Britain is likely to stick with pound vs. euro
"The euro's strength is in danger of choking off economic growth in countries such as Germany that are largely export-led," said Alasdair Murray, director of the economic and social policy unit of the London-based Center for European Reform.

The Washington Times, 6 June 2003
Analysis: EU Africa force poses questions
"The French didn't ask, and didn't want, EU involvement when they went into the Ivory Coast," said Daniel Keohane, a security analyst for the London-based Center for European Reform.... "Germany is the quietest player, but the heaviest one," said the Center for European Reform's Keohane. "There is strong debate there now whether Germany should rebuild its transatlantic alliance and not upset the Americans any more, or take the French lead in focusing on Europe."... I'm not surprised the Americans think they will be able to cherry-pick the European countries they need for allies. It's divide and conquer," said Keohane. "But Europe is also a very dynamic continent and things do not stay the same. I don't think you can reach conclusions about the future of European defense based on what's happening now."

Deutsche Welle, 6 June 2003
A Little Bit of the US in the Future EU?
"The EU is progressing at a far slower pace compared to how the US moved towards a federal structure," said Daniel Keohane, at the Centre for European Reform in London. "The federalist elements of the EU will get more power in the years to come. This constitution certainly won't be the end of it."

The Financial Times, 6 June 2003
Congo mission to test EU defence policy
"This is not about being anti-Nato or being anti-US. It is about the Europeans finally showing they can act quickly and put their money where their mouth is," says Daniel Keohane, defence analyst at London's Centre for European Reform.

EU business, 5 June 2003
EU's period of ever-increasing integration appears to have passed
As Dan Keohane, an analyst with the Center for European Reform in London put it, the draft constitution, due to be formally presented to EU leaders in less than three weeks, is not a great leap forward. "It's very disappointing (for the integrationists), because it is not the kind of radical changes in terms of boosting the role of the European Commission in the EU's life as much as they would have liked. The member states remain very much in control," he said.

The International Herald Tribune, 5 June 2003
EU puzzler: 'Who does what?'
Heather Grabbe, director of research at the Center for European Reform, a London-based research group, says the coming days will be an exercise in dealmaking and horse-trading. Countries like Spain "squawk very loudly," Grabbe said. "But in the end they can usually be bought off." The final result will be a constitution that enables the Union to function over the next few years, Grabbe predicts, but not much longer. "Fundamentally this is a consolidation exercise," she said. "Where it lacks ambition is taking a radical axe to the parts of the EU that are too complex and too unwieldy."

Statesman.com, 5 June 2003
Britain Likely to Reject Euro As Currency
"The euro's strength is in danger of choking off economic growth in countries such as Germany that are largely export-led,'' said Alasdair Murray, director of the economic and social policy unit of the London-based Center for European Reform.

The New York Times, 4 June 2003
European Peacekeepers to Go to Congo on Non-NATO Mission
After the split among European countries over the invasion of Iraq, European officials have been eager to show signs of co-operation, analysts say. "The French are keen to maximize the European side of this force," said Steven Everts, a defense expert at the Center for European Reform in London.

Washington Post, 4 June 2003
Chirac's Show, Bush's Agenda
Statement by G-8 At French Summit Reflects U.S. Aims
Chirac's world vision, giving primacy to the United Nations and constraining U.S. power, has found a receptive audience in much of the developing world. Also, European leaders have constantly said that although they could not match U.S. military power, their higher levels of aid spent on development could give them commensurate clout in global affairs. "There's certainly an amount of competition going on there," said Daniel Keohane, a research fellow with the London-based Center for European Reform. "It's one of those myths Europeans feel -- that we do more than the Americans." However, he added, "the Bush administration has been keen to show that Europe isn't as holy as they make themselves out to be on this issue." Chirac "wants to be seen as the person the developing world can trust," Keohane said, noting the French leader's high-profile opposition to the U.S.-led war against Iraq. "But at the end of the day, he doesn't have the power to get everything he wants. I think the Bush team has played the Europeans masterfully over the last six months. The Bush team is just so good at dividing the Europeans that they always end up getting what they want."

CNN.com, 1 June 2003
Analysis: Iraq war shadow over G-8
Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, told CNN: "One hears people in the U.S. administration saying that the Americans should punish the French, ignore the Germans and make peace with the Russians. "Well, that may be what people may feel and indeed think. But if that is the strategy that America pursues, then it will be very hard to get an agreement in Evian over how to move forward on the world economy."

Newsweek, 1 June 2003
Covet Thy Neighbor
Get ready for the next big revolution in the East—an invasion of Western Realtors
[...] the worry is that rich Dutch, Germans and Austrians will flood in to buy (for them) cheap farms and holiday homes and force locals out. “It's part of a general concern about identity,” says Heather Grabbe of the Centre for European Reform in London. “People are asking, 'What kind of country are we?' and 'Can we really trust our neighbors?' ” It should be noted that, for the Mediterranean members of Europe's club, the “invasion” (modest as it turned out to be) was often an economic boon. Still, well-founded or not, the fears of today's newbies are real. The EU's insistence on the free movement of capital collides with ancient passions. “In Central and Eastern Europe,” Grabbe explains, “land is always a big issue, partly because it's been fought over for such a long time.”

Boston Globe, 31 May 2003
Europeans, Bush cite a chance to reconcile
Charles Grant, director of the Center for European Reform, an independent think tank based in London, said Bush would be wise to heal the rift, as that would serve two of the United States' most important long-term interests -- an open global economy and a coordinated global war on terrorism. ''America simply can't rule the world without support and without international institutions,'' Grant said.
Asked about a perception in Europe that Washington is fostering divisions between ''old Europe'' countries like France and Germany and ''new Europe'' nations like Poland, Grant advised against such strategies. ''I would tell America, think twice before you pursue a policy of divide-and-rule,'' he said. ''The hawks in Washington are clearly happy about this split in Europe. But this is a mistake.'' Countries like Poland and France have more in common on such issues as the environment and international justice than US diplomats realize, Grant said. ''When you break it down issue by issue, the new Europe looks an awful lot like Old Europe,'' he said.

Hartford Courant, 31 May 2003
Repairing Relations
"The belief in Europe now is that the Bush administration is very happy to divide and rule," said Daniel Keohane, a researcher with the London-based Center for European Reform. Within Europe, he said, "things certainly haven't healed as much as people would have expected by now.

Voice of America, 29 May 2003
European Convention Rushes to Draft EU Constitution Before Expansion
Mr. Giscard d'Estaing, strongly backed by Britain, France, and Spain, said such a figure would give the European Union greater focus and global clout. But, as analyst Heather Grabbe of the Center for European Reform in London points out, smaller countries say it would allow bigger nations to dominate the bloc. "The small countries do not like that because they are afraid that this individual would talk more to the large countries than the small ones, and also because many of the small countries like the rotating presidency, which gives them a moment of glory every few years," she said. "But, obviously, once you have got 25 member states, then that becomes a rather untenable system." [...] Ms. Grabbe said the smaller countries agree with the commission's position. "So they want to maintain the status of the commission. But, at the same time, they all want to have their own commissioner," she said. "And yet, having 25 commissioners, one from each member state, could in fact weaken the Commission if it is less able to take decisions."

Radio Free Europe, 29 May 2003
Beyond The Personality Circus, G-8 Summit Faces Serious Economic Issues
As London-based economic analyst Katynka Barysch sees it, focusing in Evian on economic issues can help ease the political tensions between the trans-Atlantic partners. "Obviously in the areas of foreign security policy there are lots of divisions in the aftermath of Iraq," she told RFE/RL. "But in the areas of economics and finance the Americans and the Europeans clearly have very strong mutual interests because they are each other's biggest trading partners. And even more importantly, there are huge amounts of foreign investment going across the Atlantic in both directions, so they have a very strong interest in patching up their relations." Barysch, who works for the Center for European Reform, said that there is a lot of pressure on the leaders to get the stalled Doha round of world trade talks going again. "Both sides are being lobbied by their business interests to overcome their divisions to get this Doha round going again and agree on the next big package of trade liberalization, which is one of the things which the world economy needs desperately at the moment in order to get going again," she said. Further, there is the question of the weakening dollar, which is being forced down by the huge U.S. current-account deficit. "Another thing they will look at at Evian is whether they might, at one point in time, want to intervene in the currency markets to stabilize that rather drastic movement between the dollar and the euro that we are seeing at the moment," Barysch said.

Reuters, 28 May 2003
Iran Could Be Next Transatlantic Policy Clash
"Iran could be the next big issue to split both the transatlantic alliance and the European Union," predicts Steven Everts, a specialist on U.S.-EU relations at London's Center for European Reform. "What will American allies such as Britain do if the U.S. starts to turn the screws - stick with their European partners or switch over to the U.S. side?" He said U.S. hawks were privately pressing for preemptive strikes to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities, as Israel did with Iraq's nuclear reactor in 1981.

Radio Free Europe, 28 May 2003
EU: Draft Constitution Unveiled, But Not Necessarily Hailed
The new document may have produced a certain degree of clarity. But London-based analyst Dan Keohane of the Center for European Reform says pro-integrationalists will see it more as a tidying-up exercise than a great leap forward. "Certainly it's very disappointing [for them], because it is not the kind of radical changes in terms of boosting the role of the European Commission in the EU's life as much as they would have liked. The member states remain very much in control, and in particular, the bigger member states gain a lot from the way the council is being reformed," Keohane says. Analyst Keohane says the main value of the new constitution lies not in any radical leap forward but in that it will help the greatly expanded EU to work efficiently on a day-to-day basis. "Absolutely, absolutely, that's probably the most important thing in the short term. Certainly [the] Nice [Treaty of 2000] in itself would not at all necessarily ensure that the union would be much more efficient after enlargement," Keohane says. And, as he puts it, "a more efficient EU is a more attractive EU." Those seeking greater European integration may be ahead of their time, Keohane says, and developments in that direction cannot be ruled out in future. But for now it is just not politically possible.

Scotland on Sunday, 25 May 2003
Blair's euro route map rules out early vote
Alasdair Murray, economics director at the Centre for European Reform, said: "Short of setting an exchange rate to enter the euro and setting a referendum date, there is not much of substance that any route map could lay out."

The Economist, 24 May 2003
European Defence - Ready, or not
"In practice this means that the EU would struggle to perform the tasks at the tougher end of the Petersburg scale. As Daniel Keohane of the Centre for European Reform, a London think-tank, puts it, Europe "is ready for peacekeeping but not for peacemaking or warfighting".

CNN.com, 23 May 2003
Analysis: Britain divided on euro
Katynka Barysch, of the Center for European Reform, said: "If the government made a commitment to the euro now it would do a lot to heal the rifts that were opened up by the Iraq crisis." [...] Ministers in the UK Cabinet are debating the issue, but most of them are expecting the decision to be "not yet," which will not go down well in Europe. "It would certainly be seen as a lack of commitment," Barysch said. "What's important here is not necessarily the timing, as in saying they will have the referendum this year or next year. "It is the commitment that the European countries would like to see because they are getting really tired of Britain blowing hot and cold on the euro and on the European Union in general."

The Guardian, 23 may 2003
We don't do war
Cool heads are required on both sides of the pond if some good is to come out of the wreckage of Iraq. "Americans need to understand that policies intended to divide Europe are not conducive to healthy and constructive transatlantic relations," warns the invariably sensible and europhile Centre for European Reform. "By the same token, Europeans will not be able to pursue an ever-closer union if they seek to build up Europe as a counterweight to the US."

Radio Free Europe, 22 May 2003
EU: Military Ambitions Still Muddled
Dan Keohane, a London-based security analyst at the Center for European Reform, says, "This idea of a separate operational planning headquarters is extremely controversial, particularly as it comes so soon after the EU finally reached formal agreement with NATO [on the use of planning facilities]." Keohane says it's clear that part of the motivation is political. The four countries, however, deny they want to distance themselves from the U.S.-dominated NATO and say they hope other EU countries will join their initiative. [...]
Keohane says there is, in any event, a case to be made in the long run in favor of the EU having its own independent military operational planning capabilities, so that it can deal with situations in which NATO no longer wants to be involved, such as the Balkans. He notes tentative moves within NATO to give the alliance a global role rather than a purely European sphere of activity.

The Guardian, 22 May 2003
A lame duck?
The Bush administration - and in particular the defence secretary, Donald Rumsfeld, and his deputy, Paul Wolfowitz - did not want any Nato role where it mattered most: military action, ie the bombing of Afghanistan. "Afghanistan was seen in Europe as anti-Nato", says Charles Grant, director of the thinktank, The Centre for European Reform. [...] Grant compares Nato to a "yellow plastic duck bobbing up and down on the pond". When it gets stormy the duck gets tossed around. But, he says, "the duck never actually sinks".

The Scotsman, 21 May 2003
Mandelson savages Brown over euro delay
Alasdair Murray, the economics director at the Centre for European Reform, said that while there have been moves in this direction, Mr Brown's system will not be adopted wholesale. "It is just not tenable for the eurozone to import the golden rules," he argued. "As we are finding out in Britain, they are deeply ambiguous for one country and applied across 20, the system would be totally abused."

Times Online, 20 May 2003
Britain must first mend links with US
Worries about the state of the alliance were discussed in recent visits to Washington by Sir David Manning, the Prime Minister's foreign policy adviser, and by Sir Michael Jay, the Foreign Office Permanent Secretary. In a speech yesterday in Brussels to the Centre for European Reform, Jack Straw argued against being forced to make a choice between the US or the EU.
The scale of the difficulties is underlined by a declaration on transatlantic relations from 20 American and European heads of foreign policy think-tanks and former officials (a who's who of the transatlantic policy world). They argue that, while emotions are still running high, now is the time to stop the provocations and work towards a common agenda: “We reject a policy of revenge, whether it is to punish those who disagree with the US and its allies or to refuse to participate constructively and wholeheartedly in the rebuilding of Iraq.”

Financial Times, 20 May 2003
Brown pledges 'more positive' role in Europe
Speaking to the Financial Times last week, Mr Brown rejected the idea that Britain's influence would be diminished outside the euro, citing his success in resisting a withholding tax on savings. However, Alasdair Murray of the Centre for European Reform, a London-based think-tank, argued that Britain has already lost out through lack of influence in important debates. "There was initially a good deal of sympathy for the British position on the stability pact," he said. "But Britain's reform ideas have ultimately not been taken very seriously because of the country's ambiguity over the euro. We may end up with a compromise on the pact that Britain can live with, but it is not going to be what Mr Brown would have wanted.

Reuters, 16 May 2003
Poland seeks NATO support for Iraq peace force
Heather Grabbe, deputy director of the Centre for European Reform, said Warsaw would be hard-pressed to keep so many troops in Iraq for an indefinite period and would have to rely on Washington to finance most of the operation. "The diplomatic problems are even greater, because Washington's offer was a slap in the face to France and Germany," she wrote in a commentary in Friday's International Herald Tribune. "For all the pride that many Poles feel in their country being treated as a trusted ally by the United States, they have to work with the rest of Europe too."

The New York Times, 15 May 2003
Aide Says Blair Has Not Yet Decided to Abandon Euro Vote
"So far Britain has received an awful lot of good will from the French and the Germans" about its longstanding indecision concerning the euro, said Katinka Barysch at the Center for European Reform, a pro-European private policy institute. But the war in Iraq opened deep fissures between Britain, by far Washington's most active ally in the conflict, and Continental European leaders, particularly in France and Germany, implacably opposed to the invasion. "The impression that Britain can't decide on which side of the Atlantic it belongs has been exacerbated by the Iraq crisis," Ms. Barysch said. "The people on the Continent are getting a bit impatient. They are saying: What are you going to do? Where do you belong?" Indeed, she said, "at the high political level, the relationship is still quite difficult."

EU Business, 14 May 2003
EU pension reform stirs passions
As London-based analyst Katynka Barysch of the Center for European Reform put it, the French government is taking the easiest and most direct course. She described extending working years as an "easy, quick, and cheap fix," recalling that when the German Chancellor Otto von Bismarck pioneered a pension system in the 19th century, the retirement age was 60. At that time, she noted, average life expectancy was also 60.
"So people were not getting much in terms of a pension. Now, the official retirement age in most countries is 62 to 63. People generally retire early, particularly in the French and German public sectors, but they live until they are 80, and clearly this is not sustainable," Barysch said.

Financial Times, 7 May 2003
America's divided view of European unity
Steven Everts of the pro-integration Centre for European Reform writes in a recent paper: "America should welcome a European Union security strategy, even if it will crystallise some differences with the US on how to respond to specific problems." This is like saying: "The US should welcome an EU security strategy even if it means it will flatly oppose what the US is trying to do." I doubt that, post-Iraq, many Americans see it that way.

Le Point, 7 Mai 2003
Tony Blair: La croisade de l'anti- Chirac
« Blair était persuadé depuis longtemps que Saddam Hussein représentait un réel danger et, jusqu'au bout, il a cru qu'il parviendrait à retourner le président français. Sa réaction est à la mesure de son dépit », explique Heather Grabbe, directrice adjointe du Centre for European Reform, un comité d'experts londonien.

Wall Street Journal, 30 April 2003
Four Nations Plan to Form A Stronger Military Alliance
"Still the meeting ruffled fewer feathers than some had feared. "Today was as much a damage limitation exercise as anything else", said Daniel Keohane, research fellow for security and defence policy at the Centre for European Reform, a think tank in London. "They know they can't afford to annoy the Americans anymore."

CNSNews.com, 29 April 2003
Anti-War European Countries Hold Defense Summit
Daniel Keohane, a research fellow at the London-based Centre for European Reform, said that while it's hard to see how the meeting could boost the alliance, "it won't necessarily undermine NATO at this point in time." If countries with relatively low rates of defense spending, such as Germany, are persuaded to boost military capabilities, NATO could benefit in the long run, Keohane said. "Germany is the big problem here. While France and the U.K. are spending about 2.5 percent of GDP on defense, Germany is spending 1.5 percent." Europe has been moving towards a pooling of military resources that could allow the E.U. to become more effective in its own backyard, but relations have become frayed over the war in Iraq. Still, a European rapid reaction force numbering 60,000 troops is expected to be operational by the end of the year. The E.U. took over peacekeeping duties from NATO in Macedonia this past month. "Macedonia has shown that the Europeans are able to do lower-level tasks such as peacekeeping," Keohane said, adding that "peace-making" campaigns such as the NATO operation in Kosovo would be out of reach perhaps until 2010, largely because Europe lacks the air power that drove the campaign. Any agreement on the future course of Europe-wide defense will depend on the continent's two largest military powers. "Ultimately, E.U. defense will not develop unless the British and French agree," Keohane said. "The proposals discussed today are interesting, but they're unlikely to get off the ground without the agreement of the British."

AFP, 30 April 2003
Hail of fire for EU quartet's military plans
But Daniel Keohane, a defence analyst at the Centre for European Reform in London, noted that the summit countries had repeatedly stressed their desire to strengthen the European arm of NATO.
"So while there is still some controversy, I think the French and the Germans have reined the Belgians in a bit," he said, after Belgium had called for a permanent military headquarters for the EU seen as rivalling NATO.
"One gets the sense that the French and the Germans went along because the Belgians had stuck with them over Iraq," Keohane added, calling the timing of the summit "appalling".
"Frankly if you don't have the British on board, as well as the Italians and the Spanish and the rest, you're not going to get very far."

The Guardian, 29 April 2003
Defence firms call on EU to close gap with America
Daniel Keohane, defence research fellow at the Centre for European Reform, said: "The European defence industry is facing a crisis, and both it and taxpayers need a more open market."

The Washington Times, 27 April 2003
Iraq is chance for U.S. to fix its relations
"Mr. Kagan suggested that Europeans should not seek to counter U.S. power, an effort that will only divide and weaken them, and Charles Grant, director of the London-based Center for European Reform, said the United States should not seek to divide Europe, because a weak Europe is not in American interests. Mr. Grant, who is a former defense editor of the Economist, said Europe should take weapons of mass destruction more seriously and be prepared, if necessary, to use force against states that have such capabilities. [...] All the analysts at the Brookings forum agreed that Europe must enhance its military capabilities, and develop a strategic doctrine and shared-threat assessment."

L'Express, 24 April 2003
Le pari gagné de Tony Blair
Aujourd'hui, la vraie divergence entre les Européens réside dans l'attitude à adopter envers une nouvelle Amérique, qui pratique la guerre préventive, veut porter la révolution démocratique dans le monde arabe et s'assied sur le droit international au nom de la morale. Ou de l'urgence. «Paris et Berlin ont vu dans le changement américain une menace et ont décidé de s'y opposer, estime Steven Everts, chercheur au Center for European Reform. Tony Blair, lui, fait le choix de coller à l'administration Bush en espérant l'influencer. Si les Français et les Allemands ne sont pas satisfaits de ces nouvelles règles, ils n'ont pas d'autre issue que de renoncer à leur souveraineté et de bâtir immédiatement une politique étrangère commune, en annonçant par exemple qu'ils prendront toujours la même position à l'ONU. Sinon, Blair a gagné en Europe.»

EU Business, 18 April 2003
After the rows, Europe's leaders put on show of unity
"Even if they (European leaders) didn't actually agree anything fundamental then at least they are kissing and making up," Grabbe said.
"It's very important to improve the political atmosphere because if it remains as it is, it's very difficult to do business and move forward."
But "behind the scenes there's still a great deal of acrimony over the role of the UN," said Grabbe.

The International Herald Tribune, 16 April 2003
EU's party for new 10 crashed by war in Iraq
"This was supposed to be a historic summit, showcasing Europe on the upswing," said Steven Everts, a Dutch researcher at the Center for European Reform, an independent group based in London. "That's what the stage managers planned."
"But that's not how it feels," Everts continued. "Europe is in a foul mood. Everybody's got grudges against everybody else."

The Financial Times, 16 April 2003
After Iraq: Europe gripped by self-doubt
Mr Blair may get some help in pushing forward economic reform, a UK priority, but perhaps not much. According to a report in February by the European Commission, labour markets in eastern Europe are every bit as rigid as those in Germany and France. "They have liberalised their economies to a large degree but they have a strong preference for the European model of social welfare," says Heather Grabbe, in an essay on the old/new split for the Centre for European Reform, a think-tank.

EU Business, 15 April 2003
Blair faces tough task in building bridges over Iraq
The Greek EU presidency wants to turn the glittering signing ceremony on Wednesday, at the foot of the Acropolis, into a symbol of European unity. "But inevitably the latest crisis on the international stage is pushing out the discussions on which the summit is supposed to be focused", Steven Everts, of the Centre for European Reform in London, told AFP. [...] "National interests point to a rapprochement within Europe and between Europe and the US, but ... it will be very difficult. Emotions are very high and there are bruised feelings on all sides."[...]
"I think Blair would very much like to position himself as the international dealer, as a bridge builder between the US and Europe, between the West and the Arab world," said Everts. [...] "More and more people in France and Germany think that a common foreign policy with Britain is impossible because Britain will always choose America over Europe," Everts concluded.

Radio Netherlands, 15 April 2003
Once voice for the Union - Interview with Steven Everts
Steven Everts, a researcher at the Centre for European Reform, says the need for a single, senior politician to speak on EU foreign policy matters is accepted by most member countries. "There are multiple people who claim to speak for Europe at the moment, and that's why, on the whole, Europe's performance on foreign policy questions is so underwhelming. I think the vast majority of countries now want to eliminate the role of the rotating presidency, which puts a different EU country in the driving seat every six months." Under the new plan, the positions of Mr Patten and Dr Solana would be merged into the single foreign policy post, but Dr Everts says it is not clear is where such a politician would be based; in the Council of Ministers, or the European Commission. "Where do you put this new foreign policy supremo? We're going to have to hammer out some kind of compromise on that in coming months. Even if you have a single spokesperson for Europe . . . that doesn't solve the underlying and more fundamental problem of who is going to give the instructions and what policies the foreign minister is going to articulate."

Canada.com, 15 April 2003
Conflict stokes Europe's anti-Americanism
"Originally I would have said the view in Europe was more anti-Bush than anti-American, but not any more," says Daniel Keohane of the Centre for European Reform in London. "Anti-Bushism has turned into anti-Americanism, and worryingly so. It is helping Europeans define themselves as 'at least we're not Americans.' "

The Christian Science Monitor, 14 April 2003
Rifts over Iraq: how deep?
Whether the split that emerged over Iraq becomes a more permanent fixture of international politics will greatly depend on whether the US, Britain, and the Franco-German-Russian coalition agree on an acceptable role for the UN in postwar Iraq, say analysts. "I don't think we're seeing yet the emergence of a very rigid pattern," says Steven Everts of the Center for European Reform in London. "But if they don't agree on bringing in the UN, then we could see a solidification of these two poles." [...]
"The debate about Iraq had much more to do with how to relate to the US, how to deal with American power," says Everts, the London-based analyst. "Nothing bothers the East [Europeans] more than if you start talking about a core Europe oriented against the US."

Scotland on Sunday, 13 April 2003
US gives Israel 3 years to quit occupied Arab land
Steven Everts, Middle East analyst at the Centre for European Reform in London, said Brussels is keen to start talks without a complete end to violence while Washington is still angling for a firmer commitment. “How far do you hold the Palestinian Authority responsible for the actions of Hamas? This is a potential sticking point, and it could prove to be a big problem,” he said. But the draft, he said, is likely to be published with its imperfections simply to break the deadlock.

Dagens Nyheter, 6 April 2003

- Jag tror att EU återhämtar sig och löser problemen. Det kommer en dag då Irak inte har högsta prioritet och i de flesta andra frågor fungerar EU bra, säger Daniel Keohane, expert på europeisk säkerhetspolitik vid Centre for European Reform i London.
- Den avgörande frågan är om Tony Blair och Jacques Chirac är beredda att närma sig varandra. I så fall måste Chirac sluta att kritisera USA så hårt och Blair måste visa större europeisk tillhörighet, anser Daniel Keohane.

Radio Free Europe, 4 April 2003
EU: Big Differences Seen Between Antiwar Movements Against Iraq, Vietnam
Daniel Keohane is an analyst for the London-based Centre for European Reform. He told RFE/RL that sentiments against a war in Iraq were strong among European Union nations even before the war began, when the issue of what to do about Baghdad's alleged weapons of mass destruction was still being discussed at the UN. The antiwar movement of the '60s, on the other hand, was weak in the beginning but steadily gained force.
"The Vietnam War was already on for a few years before the anti-war campaign reached its zenith and its height of influence," Keohane said. "That's one major difference. Whereas in the Iraq case, the antiwar movement was already extremely powerful and loud even before the war had started." Keohane said the war in Iraq has become a live event for Europeans. All major European TV channels and radio stations are covering the hostilities live, bringing the war home to European families. However, Keohane does not think such live coverage will harden antiwar sentiments very much. "But I think the attitudes to the war depend much more on how the war is conducted, not so much on the coverage itself. You know, if people have a sense that there are huge numbers of civilian casualties, that greatly affects their attitudes toward the war," he said. He said the European public could radically change its antiwar attitudes if they begin to see their TV screens filled with images of Iraqis welcoming U.S. and British troops as liberators, instead of invaders.

The International Herald Tribune, 2 April 2003
Turkish leader to offer plan for Cyprus
''If Turkey manages to alienate both the EU and the U.S., then it's got no friends at all in the world,'' said Heather Grabbe, an expert on European expansion at the Center for European Reform in London. ''Turkey doesn't have a lot of friends to play with.''
''It's a really critical moment, when Turks have decisions to make about how their future foreign policy is going to work.'' While Turkish Cypriots seem to be strongly in favor of the reunification of Cyprus, which has been divided since 1974, the Turkish Cypriot leader, Rauf Denktash, has been an obstacle.

Reuters, 2 April 2003
Analysis: Can Blair Still Walk on Atlantic Waters?
"There is a feeling in France that Chirac has over-reached himself," said Heather Grabbe, an analyst at the Center for European Reform. "The French fundamentally need Europe too."

The New York Times, 2 April 2003
Turk Says He'll Try Again to Reunite Cyprus
''If Turkey manages to alienate both the E.U. and the U.S., then it's got no friends at all in the world,'' said Heather Grabbe, an expert on European expansion at the Center for European Reform in London. ''Turkey doesn't have a lot of friends to play with,'' Ms. Grabbe said. ''It's a really critical moment, when Turks have decisions to make about how their future foreign policy is going to work.''

The Independent, 29 March 2003
Arnaud and the question of defence
Additionally, the popularity of the con-glomerate may be waning in France. Lagardere's larger rival, Vivendi Universal, almost collapsed after putting together a large number of different businesses. "Since the Vivendi crisis, the French business sentiment has turned against the grand conglomerate vision," says Alasdair Murray, director of business and social policy at the Centre for European Reform. "The key is Vivendi. There was a feeling that there was too much to handle, which has forced a number of businesses to focus on their own structure."

Washington Post, 26 March 2003
A buoyant Blair to push agenda
Some analysts wonder why Blair is pressing his agenda now, when emotions on both sides of the Atlantic are still raw from the rhetoric of the failed U.N. debate, which ended when the United States and Britain withdrew their proposed Security Council resolution without a vote. "It certainly doesn't seem like the best time to start trying to rebuild a bridge across the ocean," said Charles Grant, director of the Center for European Reform, a research organization in London. [...] But ultimately, Blair is asking Bush to go against some of the president's core constituents -- and perhaps his own inclinations -- on issues such as the Middle East peace process and the future of the United Nations. "He's really trying to get the U.S. back in a multilateral framework," Grant said.

Jane's Defence Weekly, 26 March 2003
Brussels looks for role in industry consolidation
The EU can play a role in integrating the European defence industry, according to Daniel Keohane, a Research Fellow on security and defence policy at the Centre for European Reform. Keohane argues that in order for the industry to become more competitive and open to normal business practices its exemptions from the EU's competition laws should be ended. Keohane believes that eventually the EU Council of Ministers will have to take up the initiative as that is the only place where national differences can be resolved. He believes that as part of the efforts the EU should set up a development agency with its own research and development fund.

The Prague Post, 26 March 2003
Leaders disagree on nation's role
The Czech government is being intentionally vague about Iraq, said Heather Grabbe, research director of the Center for European Reform, a London-based think tank. "The Czech Republic is like many countries. It doesn't want to choose between the U.S. and the German-French position. It needs to get along with everyone," she said. It is acceptable for the Czechs to be indecisive now, Grabbe added.
"Being in the middle is not so bad. The Czechs had a similar attitude during the Kosovo crisis. But when the Czechs join the EU, the country will have to take stronger, clearer positions," she said.

Deutsche Welle, 26 March 2003
Discussing Aid and Reconstruction in Post-Saddam Iraq
Some think that a Bush agreement on U.N. involvement could close over some of the rifts opened in the U.N. and Europe by the coalition forces' invasion of Iraq. One thing is for sure, says transatlantic analyst Steven Everts at the Centre for European Reform in London: "Without that, it's not going to happen. You will see a repetition and exacerbation of the disputes."
"The way the reconstruction is going to be handled will be totally dependent on what Blair can get out of Bush in terms of the U.N. mandate and role," Everts told DW-WORLD. "If Bush thinks the war is going great then he will resist Blair's pressure to put the U.N. in a political role in Iraq."

South China Morning Post, 21 March 2003
A world united in protest
"The Americans haven't made their case particularly well," says Daniel Keohane, Research Fellow at the Centre for European Reform in London. "The reasons the Bush administration gives for the war keep changing."
Mr Keohane says that British Prime Minister Tony Blair, who has faced rebellion from within his own party on Iraq, "really seems to believe Iraq is part of a strategic realignment. He's almost missionary about it."
Mr Blair is apparently expecting the public opinion polls to switch from majority anti-war sentiment to support. "When Britain goes to war, most people will support their boys," says Mr Keohane, citing the 1982 Falklands conflict with Argentina.

The Financial Times, 18 March 2003
EU summit to prod wounds from Iraq crisis
[...] Heather Grabbe of the Centre for European Reform says talk of Europe dividing into rigid power blocs after Iraq may be overblown, and that ad hoc alliances on issues such as farm reform and protection of state industries will cut across these divisions.
"The EU's new members will behave like the old members," says Ms Grabbe. "Their stances will depend on the issue in question rather than long-term alliances."

Reuters, 17 March 2003
EU leaders to grapple with reforms as war looms
"It is a genuine problem that the one time EU leaders have set aside to talk about reforms should coincide with a possible war," said Alasdair Murray from the Centre for European Reform. "It is going to be very difficult not to be overrun by Iraq," added Murray, who is monitoring EU progress year-by-year. [...] Murray said the EU needed a clear roadmap for reforms to focus on short-term targets rather than long-term aspirational aims. Although still far from its ultimate target, the EU has made progress in cutting down administrative red tape, promoting the use of the Internet, passing legislation to integrate financial services and in liberalising the energy market. EU countries' track records on reforms have varied substantially. While Denmark and Finland have met most of the agreed goals, countries such as Germany and Italy have lagged behind, according to Murray's assessment.

Washington Post, 16 March 2003
Chirac Suggests Iraq Be Given 30 More Days
In an interview before the Azores meeting, Charles Grant, director of the Center for European Reform, in London, questioned the summit's relevance. "Obviously, this meeting won't influence France, Russia or the undecided six" Security Council nations, he predicted. "In a sense," Grant added, "Bush has to convince Blair that the more they try to get a second resolution through a strange diplomatic route, the more they discredit themselves."

CNS News, 10 February 2003
NATO Holds Emergency Talks After Defense Proposal Vetoed
Daniel Keohane, a research fellow with the London-based Center for European Reform, said the action by European countries "drives another nail into NATO's coffin." "NATO already had a number of political problems, including the fact that the United States largely bypassed the alliance during the conflict in Afghanistan," Keohane said. "This time it's the Europeans who have driven in the nail." "Usually when a country asks for help, it gets it," he said. Turkey will now have to negotiate bilateral agreements with the United States, Britain and the Netherlands to meet its defense needs, a process that Keohane said is more awkward than the NATO route. "It's the political message that is most relevant in this situation, however," he said. "It's another point in a process where we see NATO becoming less relevant." The alliance, Keohane said, is dying a "slow, painful death."

The International Herald Tribune, 07 February 2003
U.S. and Europe negotiate costs of reconstruction before conflict starts
"They're doing a bit more than just humanitarian planning," said Steven Everts, a defense expert at the Center for European Reform in London. "There are real oil interests and other political interests that fully justify European contingency planning." Everts said that reconstruction contingency plans were being drawn up in national capitals as well as among officials at the High Representative for Common Foreign and Security Policy, the EU's foreign policy office. U.S. sources said Thursday that the Department of Defense was planning to announce soon a package of far-reaching plans for post-Saddam reconstruction. [...]Everts of the Center of European Reform said part of the reason that the U.S. wants to get allies involved in thinking about reconstruction was to "make sure that everyone sticks to the timetable that Washington has in mind." "It's one of the pressure points that the U.S. can use," he said. "They can say, 'We are, of course, working with our European allies on providing a coherent and effective post-Saddam planning.'"

The International Herald Tribune, 06 February 2003
East Europeans line up behind Bush
Analysts say Eastern Europeans have a special relationship with the United States partly because they are appreciative of the U.S. role in opposing the Soviet Union. "For many people in region who hated the communist regime, there is an admiration for the United States," said Heather Grabbe, the director of research at the Center for European Reform in London. "They like the language of values that the U.S. uses - language that the Western Europeans are much more reluctant to use. "They like hearing 'this far no further' and that certain things are 'intolerable,'" Grabbe added. "During the Cold War those kinds of certainties were the only thing you could actually rely on." Grabbe said most Eastern European countries do not think "you have to choose between allegiance to the United States or the European Union. You should be able to do both."

The Washington Post, 31 January 2003
8 Leaders In Europe Back Bush On Iraq
"The short-term effect will be to make everything worse, especially with the French, who are already in an extraordinary froth of anger about the United States," said Charles Grant, director of the Center for European Reform in London. "It's certainly an overt but implicit criticism of the French and Germans for taking an antiwar position," he added. "But there's also a very gentle, polite but important message for the Americans that we can't get European public opinion on our side unless we try to get a new U.N. resolution."

The New York Times, 31 January 2003
European Leaders Divide Between Hawks and Doves
"In those circumstances it was far easier for Blair to play that role," said Steven Everts, an expert in trans-Atlantic relations at the Center for European Reform, a private research institute. "There's nothing like the consensus that there was on Afghanistan and that makes Blair's position more shaky."

Gazeta Wyborcza, 30 January 2003
Opinia brytyjska: poparcie dla Ameryki
Komentuje Heather Grabbe, szefowa badan w brytyjskim Centrum na rzecz Reformy Europejskiej

CNS News, 28 th January 2003
European Split Widens after Blix Report
Daniel Keohane, a research fellow at the London-based Center for European Reform, said that the EU statement "took a lowest common denominator point of view. "The idea that there is a common line on Iraq is false. Division over this issue could even destroy the chance for any common EU security or foreign policy in the future," Keohane said. On one side, Keohane said, are the anti-war Germans, while Spain, Italy and especially Britain are leaning towards the U.S. view. In the coming diplomatic tug-of-war, a key role will be played by France, which has alternated between a willingness to use force against Saddam and the pacifist German line. "Two weeks ago, the French seemed closer to the U.S. view," Keohane said. "Now, they appear so close to the Germans that it has created this split." "Public opinion in Europe supports the German and French line," he said, "but the French government has a more flexible position." Although Keohane said the French "can't really support the war without stronger evidence" that Saddam is running afoul of the United Nations, he predicted that French President Jacques Chirac would eventually support a war, provided that military action is backed up by a second U.N. resolution. "As a permanent member of the Security Council, France has a clear interest in making sure the Security Council has the final word," he said.

Radio Free Europe, 28 January 2003
NATO: What Lies Ahead For An Alliance At A Crossroads?
But analyst Daniel Keohane of the London-based Center for European Reform said that NATO's new members might reconsider their pro-U.S. stance once they become actual members of the European Union, where France and Germany dominate. "While they are now considered to be very pro-Atlanticist, will they continue to be pro-Atlanticist as [U.S. Defense Secretary] Donald Rumsfeld suggests, or will they -- also through their membership of the European Union -- become more Europeanized in the "old European" sense, as Rumsfeld put this? I think that this will be one of the interesting political games in the years ahead," Keohane said.

Radio Free Europe, 27 January 2003
NATO: George Robertson's Legacy Leaves Alliance At A Crossroads
In an interview with RFE/RL, NATO expert Daniel Keohane of the London-based Center for European Reform (CER) outlined what he considers Robertson's three main achievements: "That would be NATO's [improved] relationship with the EU [based on a December 2002 cooperation pact], NATO's [better] relations with Russia [following a May 2002 cooperation agreement], and then, of course, the enlargement of NATO -- inviting in seven more states at the Prague summit in November 2002. I think that these are probably the three most significant changes in what NATO is doing and in the relationship it has with other security actors." Keohane also said that Robertson has been the driving force behind the idea of a 20,000-strong NATO rapid-reaction force capable of responding quickly to a variety of potential threats worldwide and set to become operational next year.

Deutsche Welle, 23 January 2003
Europe's Troubled Triangle
Must Britain fear a resurging Franco-German axis, leaving Britain in the cold? Heather Grabbe, from the Centre for European Reform, thinks not: "I am unconvinced that this (the Franco-German alliance) will lead to more, as the interests of the two countries are still diverging". Grabbe said the current drive behind Franco-German relations will have more impact on domestic affairs, with both leaders hoping to ramp up their popularity at home. In any case, it will be "much harder for the two countries to lead the EU when it expands to 25 countries."

Reuters, 15 January 2003
Call for two-headed EU leadership sparks unease
For all the misgivings, the compromise between Europe's two core powers with very different forms of government seemed likely to reflect the eventual convergence point for the EU.
"This is a compromise between federal-minded Germany, and France, which prefers intergovernmental cooperation, and for that very reason will rally wide support," said Daniel Keohane of the Centre for European Reform, a London-based think-tank.
"But the devil, as always, is in the details," he added.

Tygodnik "Wprost", 12 January 2003
Polska Unia Konserwatywna
Rece precz od naszych podatków
Brytyjczycy, dotychczas najwiekszy przeciwnik przenoszenia wladzy do Brukseli, moga na nas liczyc takze w sprawie ujednolicenia polityki podatkowej. - Jesli dojdzie do harmonizacji podatków w Europie, to pójda one w góre - mówi "Wprost" Heather Grabbe, dyrektor analiz w londynskim Centre for European Reform. Francuzi i Niemcy, którzy placa jedne z najwyzszych podatków w Europie, patrza krzywym okiem na bardziej liberalne kraje, poniewaz ucieka do nich coraz wiecej inwestorów. Ten duet od kilku lat naciska na ujednolicenie polityki podatkowej.
Zdaniem Grabbe, w interesie Polski lezy blokowanie francusko-niemieckiego dyktatu podatkowego. Kraje takie jak Luksemburg, Wielka Brytania, Holandia, a zwlaszcza Irlandia, utrzymujace wzglednie niskie podatki, bronia sie przed francusko-niemieckim pomyslem, bo widza w nim zamach na swoje gospodarki. - Moglibyscie zawrzec sojusz z tymi panstwami przeciwko ujednoliceniu polityki podatkowej. W Polsce - przynajmniej na tle europejskim - koszty pracy sa wzglednie niskie i powinniscie zachowac ten atut - mówi Heather Grabbe. Rozszerzenie unii bedzie - wedlug Grabbe - gwozdziem do trumny wspólnej polityki podatkowej, bo wiekszosc nowych czlonków sie na nia nie zgodzi.

Imigranci?
Bardzo drodzy goscie
Polska bedzie równiez przeciwna ujednoliceniu polityki wobec imigrantów. Juz z udzialem Polaków podjete zostana decyzje dotyczace proporcjonalnego rozdzielenia w Europie azylantów czekajacych na rozpatrzenie wniosków. Planowana wspólna polityka imigracyjna ma raczej zachecac do osiedlania sie w Europie, chocby dlatego, ze Stary Kontynent jest jedynym kontynentem, na którym liczba ludnosci spada (w najblizszych kilkunastu latach przewiduje sie zmniejszenie populacji z 680 mln do 600 mln osób).
Dzis do Polski przyjezdza znacznie mniej imigrantów niz do Europy Zachodniej, ale wejscie do unii podniesie nasza atrakcyjnosc. Latwiej tez bedzie sie przedostac z Polski do tradycyjnych rajów imigracyjnych - Niemiec, Szwecji czy Danii.
Dla polityków azylanci to tylko problem. Drenuja budzet panstwa, draznia nacjonalistów, napedzaja wyborców radykalom. Dzis wiekszosc azylantów jedzie do Niemiec, Wielkiej Brytanii, Beneluksu i krajów skandynawskich. Pod naciskiem tych panstw powstaje wspólna polityka imigracyjna, dzieki której azylanci maja byc bardziej proporcjonalnie "rozdzielani" miedzy kraje czlonkowskie. Dla Polski wiaze sie to z koniecznoscia poniesienia wiekszego niz dotychczas ciezaru. - Polski rzad bedzie musial zaproponowac jakas polityke wobec azylantów. Ta kwestia nie jest jeszcze w Polsce upolityczniona, ale niedlugo bedzie. Na pewno znajda sie politycy, którzy podchwyca ten temat - mówi Heather Grabbe.

International Herald Tribune, 10 January 2003
Question mark bedevils Greece
"They start under a sort of question mark, for a lot of people: Are they up to it?" said Steven Everts, a senior research fellow at the Center for European Reform, an independent group based in London."I don't think it's a massive question mark," Everts added, saying that Greece's current leaders have more respect in Europe than its past ones did and that all of Europe has noted Greece's recent strides. "But there's still a question mark."

United Press International, 10 January 2003
Eurobrief: Crunch year for military goals
Daniel Keohane, a defense analyst at the London-based pro-EU Center for European Reform, says 2003 will be a crucial year for the EU's nascent security and defense policy. "After years of talk, the EU will actually be doing something," he says. The policing operation in Bosnia is unlikely to stretch the EU and its partners. But Keohane says the EU's first military foray in Macedonia will be closely watched by both the Union's supporters and detractors. "The European Union will want to make sure it goes well because if anything does go wrong, it might raise a lot of uncertainty about the EU's potential as a military actor," he says.

Radio Free Europe, 7 January 2003
EU/Balkans: Is The Bloc Doing Enough To Help The Region?
Analysts say one major policy issue facing the EU is just how to carry out a future expansion into the western Balkans. Heather Grabbe of the Centre for European Reform in London put it this way: "The question is really how the union will react when some countries apply to join and others are left outside. Is it prepared to allow the countries to join individually rather than the region as a whole? For instance, Croatia is very likely to apply soon, possibly this month. Should Croatia have to wait for the other countries of the former Yugoslavia? That's the big question for the EU." She said this is a dilemma in that Brussels seeks to foster regional unity rather than causing rivalries based on who's "in" or who's "out." In other words, should the EU give priority to regional integration or to accepting applications for membership based on their individual merits?
Grabbe said she finds the EU's policy toward the region generally well-defined and that the "weak spot" in EU policy making rests not so much in the Balkans but toward countries like Ukraine, Belarus, and Moldova.