 |
  |
|
Entre nous Mark Leonard is abandoning the Foreign Policy Centre think-tank he founded six years ago, and is off to join the ranks of the Centre for European Reform, the think-tank headed by Charles Grant which has lost Heather Grabbe to the cabinet of Olli Rehn and Steve Everts to the office of foreign policy chief Javier Solana. So where does that leave the FPC? A spokeswoman said: "It was not a shock that Mark was leaving, we were all aware that it was coming and we are confident that we have a secure future at the FPC." The FPC board has begun discussing how it will recruit a new director and will announce details in due course. Voice of America, 2 December 2004 French Socialists back EU constitution Centre for European Reform researcher Aurore Wanlin says the party referendum also has major consequences for France's Socialists. "Another question at stake is the future of the Socialist Party," said Aurore Wanlin. "In 2007, there will be a presidential election. So, basically, the internal referendum [this week] will decide the program of the Socialist Party to run for these elections and who will be the leader." EU business.com, 2 December 2004 Ukraine crisis raises thorny question of EU frontiers The European Union's engagement in Ukraine's evolving crisis raises the thorny question of where the expanding bloc's frontiers will settle, according to analysts who say Brussels must now offer Kiev a prospect of membership. "The EU's refusal to even talk about the possibility of membership looks untenable," said Kataryna Wolczuk, [who recently had a paper on the situation in Ukraine published by] the London-based Centre for European Reform. "Solana is, in a way, empty-handed" in the mediation efforts, she told AFP. "He has Europe's prestige, but he could be much more effective" if he was able to offer the prospect of membership. The Scotsman, 2 December 2004 French Socialist poll poses threat to EU constitution If the Socialists vote "No", Mr Chirac could have a tougher time winning the referendum - an outcome that could jeopardise the constitution itself since all of the 25 EU countries must adopt it. Many are leaving the decision to national parliaments, but at least nine countries - including France and Britain - are putting the constitution to nationwide referendums. "Everyone is very worried," said Aurore Wanlin, a research fellow at London's Centre for European Reform. Associated Press, 1 December 2004 Fierce debate for French Socialists on EU constitution boils down to a question: Yes or No? If Socialists vote "No," Chirac could have a tougher time winning the referendum _ an outcome that could jeopardize the constitution itself since every one of the 25 EU countries must adopt it. "Everyone is very worried," said Aurore Wanlin, a research fellow at London's Center for European Reform. "If a 'No' vote wins ... it calls into question the chances of winning a general referendum in France next year." "If France votes 'No,' it could trigger a huge crisis that could kill off the constitution for good," Wanlin said. United Press International, 1 December 2004 French Socialists hold key EU vote But if the "no" carries the day, some observers say, French Socialists may not only find themselves isolated in Europe, where many of Socialist leaders support the constitution, but they may well face an internal crisis at home. "A lot of big figures have defended the 'yes,' so a split up the Socialist Party is always possible," said Aurore Wanlin, research fellow at the Centre for European Reform, a London-based think-tank. "The internal referendum today will decide the program the Socialist Party will run on in the 2007 presidential elections," Wanlin said, "and who will be the leader." The Sunday Times, 28 November 2004 Business Focus: Walking with dinosaurs Famous for his off-the-cuff remarks and a combative style of management, Charlie McCreevy, the European Union's new commissioner with responsibility for the internal market, has kept a low profile. There is one proposal waiting in his in-tray that is causing huge division across Europe, a plan to liberalise services across sectors including retail, travel agencies, advertising, employment agencies, healthcare services, doctors, lawyers and tax advisers. "It's a very difficult and controversial piece of legislation, arguably the biggest liberalisation bill since the beginning of the single market," said Alasdair Murray from the Centre for European Reform, a London-based think tank. Le Monde, 26 November 2004 Les travaillistes britanniques critiquent sans ménagement le "populisme" de M. Fabius Directeur du Centre pour une réforme européenne (CER), un think tank(centre de réflexion) proche des travaillistes, Charles Grant souligne "l'extraordinaire revirement" que représenterait l'éventuel refus de la Constitution par un parti résolument pro-européen "depuis que Delors avait persuadé Mitterrand, il y a vingt ans, de renoncer à ce qu'il avait appelé la "politique albanaise" prônée par Chevènement". Primo, cette prise de position aggraverait la menace du "non" dans un pays qui "a toujours été à l'avant-garde de la construction de l'Europe"; secundo, elle "couperait le PS des autres grands partis socialistes européens - allemand, espagnol, britannique - et le rejetterait dans le camp des eurosceptiques, aux côtés des tories ou du Front national", poursuit M. Grant. Pour cet expert, militant de l'Europe, qui a lui-même appartenu brièvement au PS au début des années 1980, et qui parle "en socialiste", ce serait "un changement historique".[...] full quoteEurActiv.com, 26 November 2004 When negotiations begin: the next phase in EU-Turkey relations This essay by Heather Grabbe, published by the Centre for European Reform, is about the challenges that lie ahead for the EU and Turkey once accession negotiations begin. It considers which aspects of the accession process and the EU's rule-book will be unpalatable to various Turkish interest groups. The essay concludes with the lessons which Turkey can learn from the experience of the Central and East European countries which joined the EU in May 2004. The New York Times, 26 November 2004 Demographic time bomb threatens pensions in Europe The dream of early retirement on a fat pension is receding with other comfortable visions of the future, like the pursuit of shorter working weeks and expanded leisure time that preoccupied many, particularly in continental Europe, in the 1990's. "They got used to having that very cushy social system, and now they are slowly coming to grips with the fact that the cushy system doesn't hold any more," said Katinka Barysch, an economist at the Centre for European Reform, a private policy research organization in London. Or, as Mr. Shergold put it, "the majority of people will just have to stay at work that much longer." International Herald Tribune, 25 November 2004 Being 'clear,' EU keeps pressure on Turkey EU specialists said a hardening of the line in some countries so shortly before the decision was rooted in domestic opposition to Turkey's membership. "It's meant for home consumption," said Katinka Barysch, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform in London. "They have to take public opinion seriously, but it's a pity that they are on the defensive, rather than making the positive case for Turkey's entry." CNS News.com, 25 November 2004 European Union Agrees on Rapid Reaction Force Daniel Keohane, a research fellow at the Center for European Reform in London, said the main focus will be for Europeans to be able to intervene in a conflict situation rapidly. "It reinforces the NATO effort and also helps ensure that the Europeans keep reforming their militaries, which is exactly what the U.S. also wants for them to do," said Keohane. Keohane said that a complaint about European forces has been that they have not budged from their old configuration since the Cold War era. "Now they are waking up to realize they need completely different kinds of soldiers," he said. "They're making a much greater effort to try to move in that direction, whether it be scrapping conscription and pushing toward more professional troops with better equipment, the right types of equipment, and ensuring they can work with the U.S. as well," added Keohane. Keohane said there is absolutely no possibility that any of these EU units could be sent to support coalition troops in Iraq, because they can only be deployed after a unanimous decision by member states and military operations are subject to a veto. "It's more a heightened level of cooperation than anything else," said Keohane. European Voice, 18-24 November 2004 EU's peacekeeping ambitions set to move up a gear by 2007 ... But Daniel Keohane from the London based Centre for European Reform pointed out that the UK currently has access to significant military transport as it had C-17 aircraft on lease from the US. "As it is, Britain and France should be able to put together a battle group in the morning," he added. But he said that political hurdles could prevent one being sent into action. This had been illustrated with the crisis in Sudan's Darfur region. The possibility of deploying an EU-led mission there had been mooted in the past few months. No European troops have been sent to Sudan, though - officially because the African Union has not requested them. But Keohane said it would be wrong to place all the blame on the latter. "The African Union is new to the security game. The lesson for the future is that the Europeans should be able to move faster." Newsweek, 22-29 November 2004 Russian Rumblings The EU's giant neighbor is growing less and less interested in joining hands. Katinka Barysch, Russia expert at London's Centre for European Reform [says]: "relations between Europe and Russia have broken down."[...] If anything, Russia needs Europe more than the other way around. "If they want to have any hope in hell of diversifying their economy, they can't do it without us." Euractiv.com, 19 November 2004 Turkey's EU bid: a 'third way' looming? In mid-November, French President Jacques Chirac openly raised the possibility of a "third option" for Turkey. "There is a third hypothesis that in three to four years, things have progressed but there are still obstacles that we will not surmount. We will therefore need to find another solution, to create a sufficiently strong link for our ambitions for peace and co-operation but without integration into the EU," said Chirac. Asked about Chirac's statement, Katinka Barysch, chief economist at the London-based Centre for European Reform , said that it was "probably directed towards a domestic audience, reassuring the French that only a stable and democratic Turkey will ever become a full member of the EU". Polls in France show that a majority of the public is opposed to Turkey's EU accession. Chirac has promised to put the question to a referendum. "Fact is: the objective of EU negotiations is membership, nothing less," Barysch explained. "But the Commission's report already made it clear that if Turkey was to slide towards Islamism or unravel democratic reforms, negotiations would be suspended. It is in this situation that the EU may have to start thinking about how to tie Turkey to Europe without offering full EU membership. Reuters, 16 November 2004 Chirac blasts Iraq war before meeting Blair The prime minister's vision of Britain acting as a bridge between Europe and the United States contradicts Chirac's desire to build a stronger European Union to counter U.S. power. "The chemistry is so bad between these men that I don't expect much in the way of surprises in substance this week," said Steven Everts of the Centre for European Reform think tank. Turkishpress.com, 16 November 2004 Europe, regretting Powell exit, apprehensive over Rice "Sure Powell will be sorely missed because he's somebody whose world view is much more in tune with other leaders in Europe and around the world," said Steven Everts, a US-Europe expert at the Centre for European Reform in London. "But on the big-ticket items such as Iraq his influence was limited. Rice is a very tough cookie. Her benefit is that she has the ear of the president. Powell never knew whether he could deliver," he told AFP. [...] But for the transatlantic expert Everts, predictions of doom and gloom now that Powell is going may be overblown. "Condi Rice is quite a realist, less ideologically motivated than some in the administration. She'll be more open to the idea that for purely realpolitik reasons, America needs allies," he said. Euractiv.com, 16 November 2004 CEPS Turkey in Europe Monitor Steven Everts from the Centre for European Reform, in the extract from the article titled ' An asset but not a model: Turkey, the EU and the wider Middle East ', looks at two sets of questions: the consequences of Turkey's accession for EU policies in the wider Middle East and the 'Turkey as a bridge' or 'model' arguments. With respect to the first issue, he concludes that Turkey has a lot to contribute to EU policies on the Middle East in terms of credibility, political access, know-how and economic leverage. Everts stresses that the prospect of Turkey's accession should be used to deepen EU engagement in the Middle East and cites Israel – Palestine, Iran and Syria as areas that provide good opportunities for early joint EU – Turkish action. He highlights that rejection by the EU would not only hinder the reform process inside the country but that it would also jeopardise the 'Europeanisation' of Turkish foreign policy that involves the adoption of EU's distinct foreign policy style of promoting security through multilateral mechanisms and institutional integration. Regarding the 'model' or 'bridge' argument, Everts' view is that Turkey cannot be a 'model' for democratising the wider Middle East as it is a unique case in three key respects: its long – standing ties with the West, its secular state structure, and the transformation of its political elite through the prospect of EU membership. According to Everts, the fact that Turkey has ambivalent relations with most of its neighbours in the region also aggravate the need to tone down the 'Turkey as a bridge' argument and avoid the 'Turkey as a model' rhetoric altogether. The Guardian, 16 November 2004 Defence talks add to French rift with Germany The French government has 31% of Thales but only 15% of Eads which could make it difficult to drive through a merger. "The French have been trying to create a European champion in defence, which for them often means a French champion," according to Daniel Keohane, a research fellow at the Centre for European Reform in London. "They clearly haven't given up, but whether the Germans will be eager for this is another question," he added. Café Babel, 15 November 2004 "Troisième voie" ou cheval de Troie du libéralisme ? Le centre de recherche britannique Centre for European Reform (CER) étudie depuis 2001 les mesures prises en relation avec la Stratégie de Lisbonne. Dans le domaine de la politique de l'entreprise, le CER attire l'attention sur la variété des mesures envisagées. On trouve d'une part, comme on pouvait s'y attendre, une politique de baisse des impôts. BBC, 15 November 2004 Greece admits fudging euro entry "It has been proven that Greece's budget deficit never fell below 3% since 1999," finance minister George Alogoskoufis admitted on Monday. Katinka Barysch, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform, said the announcement would not be a surprise for Brussels insiders. "Quite a few member states did something similar because of the political imperative to join the euro as soon as possible. Greece has just gone a bit further," she said. France and Germany have previously defied the 3% limit. With the European Central Bank (ECB) currently telling East European member states that want to join the euro that they must strictly adhere to the 3% rule, the EU risks being accused of double standards, Ms Barysch said."These countries will say the ECB wants them to be holier than the Pope," she added. Reuters, 15 November 2004 World's Biggest Aerospace Company in Offing? Unofficial proposals to create the world's largest aerospace company again lifted shares in Thales, Europe's largest defense electronics supplier, and prompted talk of a radical new defense shake-up weeks after the surprise merger of Snecma and Sagem. [...] But commentators warned the plan, whose outline was confirmed by French government and industrial sources on Monday, risks upsetting Berlin by tilting the cross-border ownership structure of the EADS aerospace group in favor of the French. "If I were on the German side I would be a bit suspicious about this deal," said Daniel Keohane, research fellow at the Center for European Reform in London. "The French have been trying for a while to create a European champion in defense, which for them often means a French champion. They clearly haven't given up, but whether the Germans will be eager for this is another question," he said. "From a purely industrial point of view the logic of this deal is not obvious to me and the Germans would not necessarily be happy about it." The Washington Times, 15 November 2004 Embassy Row Diplomatic traffic Foreign visitors in Washington this week include: Carl Bildt, a former prime minister of Sweden, Marta Dassu, director of the Aspen Institute in Italy, Marc Perrin de Brichambaut, director of strategic affairs at the French Ministry of Defense, and Charles Grant, director of London's Center for European Reform. They participate in a discussion on trans-Atlantic relations sponsored by the Daimler-Chrysler Forum. Time, 14 November 2004 Power Struggle - Can America and Europe learn to work together during the Bush Administration's second term? A first key marker on that route would be kick-starting Europe's economic growth, says Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform in London. He argues that narrowing Europe's persistent growth gap with the U.S. would provide the pride and the resources to increase Europe's influence. "You have to revive the sense of economic dynamism," he says. "Ultimately, both soft and hard power depend on it." Financial Times, 13 November 2004 UK reaps reward of accepting new EU labour Katinka Barysch, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform, a London-based think-tank, said the figures needed to be treated with caution. It was difficult to distinguish between those who were working in Britain before enlargement and those who had arrived after the labour market was opened to people from accession states, she said. She added that anecdotal evidence suggested many migrants came only for a short period, but noted that overall they were a benefit to the UK economy. "There is no welfare tourism," she said. International Herald Tribune, 12 November 2004 A grim report on future grabs Europe's attention The Kok study also urged governments to actively seek ways of getting more people into the work force. Here, according to Alasdair Murray of the Centre for European Reform in London, the Kok report offers two approaches - a soft approach, like encouraging more women to work, or a hard approach, forcing people to work by lifting the retirement age or cutting pensions and unemployment benefits. "Most European countries need a bit of both," Murray said. "But it has got to get an awful lot better if Europe is going to maintain adequate growth." EU Observer, 12 November 2004 Putin's Ukraine visit raises eyebrows I think it [Mr Putin's visit] shows how far Russia is willing to go to achieve a favourable outcome", said Dr Kataryna Wolczuk, author of a recently published Centre for European Reform paper on the elections. "Russia wants to ensure it has no hostile Presidents in its 'near abroad'", said Ms Wolczuck. Washington Post, 11 November 2004 World Leaders Praise Courage, Conviction The Bush administration saw Arafat as an obstacle to Middle East peace and a sponsor of terrorism. But many governments in Europe and throughout the world saw him as the legitimate leader of the Palestinian people and recall him as a winner of the Nobel Peace Prize for signing the 1993 Oslo peace accords with Israel. They are sending foreign ministers to his funeral in Cairo, while the United States is sending an assistant secretary of state. "This will reinforce the widely held view in America that the French in particular and Europeans in general are soft on terrorism, greatly opposed to Israel and perhaps anti-Semitic," said Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, a think-tank in London. "Everyone in Europe knows the Palestinian Authority was corrupt and Arafat was difficult, but we don't forget the very constructive role he played in the Middle East peace process for many years." World Peace Herald, 11 November 2004 Analysis: Europe mourns Arafat's death Although EU leaders publicly backed the former Fatah chief, in private many of them saw him as an obstacle to peace. Says Steven Everts, a researcher at the Centre for European Reform think-tank in London: "The Palestinians have been paralyzed by Arafat's stranglehold over political life." On both sides of the Atlantic there are now hopes that a new generation of Palestinian leaders, or at least ones less toxic to Tel Aviv and Washington, will be able to breathe new life into the peace process. Monday Morning - Beirut, Lebanon, 9 November 2004 European Union: The rocky road to constitutional ratification Some say a string of 'no' votes could even cause the unravelling of the whole half-century-old EU project. "Pro-Europeans must seize the opportunities that the referenda offer. Otherwise this new era of direct democracy could even lead to an unravelling of the EU", said Daniel Keohane of the Centre for European Reform in London. ..."If France voted 'no', the other EU governments would probably have little choice but to reject the constitution outright", said Keohane, adding: "If a number of countries, including perhaps a large one, did not ratify the constitution that would... probably kill it off for good". One thing is sure: eurosceptics will be taking every opportunity to cause an upset for the constitution now that it faces its crucial phase. The Guardian, 8 November 2004 Forum filling- 'Multistakeholder' proposals for tougher EU reporting regulations have been kicked into touch Alasdair Murray, director of the business and social policy unit at the Centre for European Reform and author of a 2003 CER report on CSR, says: "It's pretty well been put into touch. If someone in the new commission gets excited about it there'll probably be a new paper and working group but it's not a phrase that's passed Barroso's lips as far as I can tell." Prospect, November 2004 British think-tank awards Prospect's fourth think-tank of the year award was another glittering affair, this time at the end of Brighton's Palace pier. report of the year went to David Willett's influential piece on pensions and demography for the Centre for European Reform. ... The judges also noted the growth in Whitehall departments and the government's tendency to poach form independent think-tanks to fill them. (And it is not just the government. The Centre for European Reform has just lost two of its stars - Heather Grabbe [to the European Commission] and Steven Everts [to the Council of the European Union]. The Observer, 7 November 2004 A disaster in the making for Europe Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, is now so concerned about the future of our relations with the rest of Europe that he has called upon the re-elected Bush to "use your influence with the Conservative Party and the Eurosceptic press to make clear that you want Britain to be actively involved in the heart of Europe". The Observer, 7 November 2004 German patient in relapse - Fifteen years after the Berlin Wall came down, the economy is still far from healthy Katinka Barysch, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform, says that makes it 'one of the most aid-dependent regions in the world'. 'Quite a lot of money has been poured into east Germany but in terms of job-generation it hasn't helped at all,' says Rupert Thompson of GFC Economics. Unemployment in Germany as a whole is now well over 4 million. ... Meanwhile, there is a growing determination in Germany to get to grips with what Barysch calls the 'hangover' from reunification. 'You now, for the first time, have a public discussion saying, maybe the east Germans need to contribute a bit more,' she says. The Ifo Institute put it more dramatically earlier this year: 'The German wound must be attended to, the German injury must be healed, in order that Germany should be successful in a global context.' ... Barysch says these deals are a sign that the culture of besitzstandsdenken - the expectation of a secure, well-paid job, long holidays, short hours and a strong social safety net - is breaking down in the face of fears for the country's future. The Charlotte Observer, 7 November 2004 Europeans differ starkly from US on faith, policy "The Buttiglioni furor, and the very negative reaction he got, is clear evidence of the move toward secular politics in Europe," said Daniel Keohane, senior analyst at the Center for European Reform, a London-based think tank. "It's not that most Europeans have a problem with religion per se. It's more whether they suspect religion affects a politician's choice on policy," Keohane said. The New York Times, 4 November 2004 Leaders Jostle to Shape Agenda for a New Term In Europe, analysts focused on whether there was any hope of bridging increasingly stark differences over the role of the United Nations, NATO and institutions like the International Criminal Court. There were signs of lingering bitterness and reflections of the divisions among Europeans about Mr. Bush. Charles Grant, the director of the Center for European Reform, a nonpartisan policy institute, said in an open letter to Mr. Bush that "your best potential allies are the Europeans" and that it was time for him to make up with them. The Financial Times, 4 November 2004 European Comment: Berlin's Houdini in knots A paper by Alasdair Murray at the London-based Centre for European Reform suggests ways the European Commission can become more than a "policeman", and actively root out barriers to competition. That is not easy. Past attempts to investigate sectors, for instance, have been time-consuming - an inquiry into airport landing fees took six years. Mr Murray suggests focusing on key areas such as retail banking, with a view to highlighting anti-competitive regulations and acting against states that break internal market rules. To be more transparent, Mr Murray says the commissioner should write an open letter setting out his or her decision in a merger or antitrust case, to be published after the Commission takes a final decision. Other proposals include a stronger consumer voice, tighter rules on "restructuring aid" to companies, and steps to encourage private lawsuits. The Financial Times, 4 November 2004 Bush re-election both a comfort and a curse for Blair At the same time, Mr Bush's re-election means the poison remains between Mr Blair and many of his own backbench MPs. "The reason why many of Blair's MPs and European allies hate the prime minister is that they see him as Bush's poodle," says Charles Grant, head of the Centre for European Reform think-tank. "Blair's critics would have started to like him a lot more if John Kerry had won."... Mr Grant believes there is reason for optimism on this front. "Although ostensibly we are in for a very rocky patch, the problems of the world are so great that George Bush will have to work with the Europeans. If so, then Blair is well-placed to be the intermediary." Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 4 November 2004 US: What Does Bush's Win Mean For Foreign Policy? Steven Everts of the Center for European Reform in London said the reason is that the U.S. campaign was in many ways an American referendum on Bush's approach to foreign policy. He said Bush now feels vindicated and Europeans disappointed. "I think we are looking at an international landscape that will be dominated by a 'Bush administration 2' that will feel largely vindicated. And the Bush administration I think will not approach it with, 'OK, we have got to reach out now to the Europeans who opposed or had great reservations about many aspects of U.S. foreign policy over the past four years.' Rather, they will say that Bush has a very strong mandate now to proceed roughly on the path that he has followed in the last four years," Everts said. Everts said France and Germany - Bush's sharpest EU critics - are likely to respond by continuing to call for Washington to work with other nations and the UN in shaping a new Iraq. But he said the two EU states are likely to feel more reluctant than ever to contribute their own troops for any broader multinational security force. [...] Analyst Everts said a key test for the second Bush administration will be whether it decides to fully join Europe in seeking a grand bargain with Tehran despite wide current trans-Atlantic differences over the terms to be offered. "On Iran, it is true that both Europeans and Americans are roughly agreed on the objective, which is a non-nuclear Iran. And it is also true that there has been a sort of hardening of the European position. But the vast majority of Europeans believe that we have got to try first whether we can find some kind of grand bargain with Iran whereby they would effectively give up their nuclear option in return for very significant political and economic incentives - including American recognition of Iran and full integration [of Iran] into the global economy," Everts said. The Bush administration has given no sign over the past four years that it would change a long-standing U.S. policy of maintaining U.S. sanctions against Tehran and seeking to isolate the Islamic Republic internationally. Twincities.com, 4 November 2004 World reacts to Bush's 2nd term Charles Grant, the director of the Center for European reform, a nonpartisan think tank, said in an open letter to Bush that "your best potential allies are the Europeans" and that it was time to make up with them. He called on Bush to give up any notion of playing "new" Europe off "old" Europe to weaken Europe's power, and contended that "Europe will usually be on your side, helping you to sort out the world's problems, because most of its fundamental interests and values are similar to your own."CNSNews.com, 4 November 2004 European Media, Others Fret Over Bush Re-Election Analysts see a range of issues that Europe and the U.S. will have to tackle seriously in the next four years. Steven Everts, director of the Transatlantic Program at the Centre for European Reform in London, said the top two were Iran's nuclear arms program and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Everts said Europeans and the U.S. agreed that Iran must prove its nuclear program was not military in nature, but "Europeans feel that the Americans are a one-instrument orchestra. It's all sticks and no carrots." European governments would like to offer Iran incentives to give up their nuclear program, but the Americans argued that "if it does not comply it must pay the price through economical and political sanctions, moving on swiftly to military options," said Everts. As for the Middle East, Europeans were waiting for Bush to do what he said he would do, "when he said to [British Prime Minister] Tony Blair that he would devote as much time to peacemaking in Israel-Palestine as Blair had done in Northern Ireland," Everts said. [...] But if Bush is looking to Europe for additional military help in Iraq, "there's no way in hell" that will happen, said Everts. "Why would Europe contribute to a failed policy that they opposed from the beginning? Instead, Bush should ask for the things he could get - help with the civilian reconstruction, building up the police forces, helping to write the constitution," he said. International Herald Tribune, 4 November 2004 A global 'What now?' Charles Grant, director of the Center for European Reform, a nonpartisan research group, said in an open letter to Bush that "your best potential allies are the Europeans" and it was time to make up with them. He called on Bush to give up any notion of playing "New Europe" off of "Old Europe" to weaken Europe's power, and contended that "Europe will usually be on your side, helping you to sort out the world's problems, because most of its fundamental interests and values are similar to your own." Washington Post, 4 November 2004 With a Handful of Exceptions, Most See Results as Dispiriting "It will confirm those who feel there's a difference in basic values between the U.S. and Europe," said Charles Grant, director of the Center for European Reform here. "Although we have many common interests and values, when you get to things like religion, gun control and the death penalty, we just live on a different planet." The Times, 1 November 2004 Competition will fan Europe's dull flame The Centre for European Reform, the influential London-based think-tank said this year that even Lisbon's most enthusiastic proponents "can only describe the (European Union's) performance . . . as mediocre". Time Magazine, 1 November 2004 Barroso's Blues - Who will prevail, Barroso or the European Parliament? The dispute holds dangers for both sides. If Barroso gives in, "the Parliament will have set an important precedent," denting the President's authority, says Alasdair Murray of the London-based Centre for European Reform. But tossing out the entire Commission could backfire, too. Murray believes Parliament would have to prove that the group was so bad it should be thrown out before it's done anything. "I'm not sure they can do that," he says. "Both sides could end up playing a game of brinkmanship that doesn't serve the EU's interests." Nola.com, 1 November 2004 EU constitution referendums seek overhaul All it takes is one rejection to sink the constitution. Never before in the history of the EU has there been broader public scrutiny than what the EU constitution will undergo. "This is a seismic shift in EU politics," according to Steven Everts and Daniel Keohane, senior research fellows at London's Centre for European Reform. "The era of European integration by stealth is over. In the past, many countries have held referendums on whether to join the EU, but only a very few have held them on treaty revisions once they are in," they wrote in a recent paper.[...] whatever the outcome of the constitution debate, referendums will be the way of the future in the European Union. La Nation, 31 October 2004 Europa, pendiente como nunca Otros señalan que a estas alturas la política exterior norteamericana corre por sus propios carriles y en muchos aspectos quién esté en el poder no hace una diferencia. "Hay que tomar en cuenta que después de la Guerra Fría, y sobre todo a partir del 11 de septiembre, la relación entre Estados Unidos y Europa se vio afectada por cambios estructurales que se mantendrán sin importar quién sea presidente", señaló desde Bruselas Steven Everts, del think tank Centro para la Reforma Europea. ¿Será entonces -como alegan algunos- que la diferencia entre Bush y Kerry en términos de política exterior estará basada sobre todo en la retórica? "Puede haber algo de cierto -reconoció Everts-. Pero no hay que minimizarlo: estamos hablando de diplomacia, por lo que aún el tema del lenguaje es importantísimo." The Age, 30 October 2004 EU democracy wins out but cabinet left in limbo Alasdair Murray, of the London-based Centre for European Reform, said such a move would be "devastating". "That would play extremely badly (in Italy). He will win the backing of the other member states who will say that Parliament can't tell member states who they nominate to the commission," he said. But if Mr Berlusconi does not budge, the Parliament may continue to stare down the commission unless Mr Barroso can find a non-controversial spot for Mr Buttiglione. Mr Murray, an astute EU watcher, said the fallout could lead to political infighting and squabbling among MEPs over posts EU business, 30 October 2004 EU faces rocky road to ratify constitution "Pro-Europeans must seize the opportunities that the referenda offer. Otherwise this new era of direct democracy could even lead to an unravelling of the EU," said Daniel Keohane of the Centre for European Reform in London. [...] "If France voted 'no' the other EU governments would probably have little choice but to reject the constitution outright," said Keohane, adding: "If a number of countries, including perhaps a large one, did not ratify the constitution that would ... probably kill it off for good." The Australian, 30 October 2004 Euro constitution signed, not sealed Some will simply put it to a vote in their parliaments, but up to 19 countries will hold a referendum. Belgium, Denmark, France, Ireland, Luxembourg, The Netherlands, Portugal, Spain and Britain are certain to do so. It will be the biggest popular consultation in the continent that gave the world democracy, probably involving more than half the EU's citizens and more than half of its countries. Previously, few European governments have dared put new EU treaties to their people. "This is a seismic shift in EU politics. The EU is on the cusp of a direct democracy revolution," wrote Daniel Keohane of the left-leaning, pro-EU Centre for European Reform. Smh.com.au, 30 October 2004 Revolt by parliament leads EU into uncharted territory Alasdair Murray, of the London think tank the Centre for European Reform, says it was important for the parliament to be taken seriously over its opposition to Buttiglione. But MEPs should not start believing they have the final say over who can be a commissioner. "Where you get into dangerous territory is how long [this is] going to take to resolve," he said. "Is this merely a two-week hiccup that will be forgotten by the beginning of next year, or are we in a longer crisis as Barroso struggles to put together a new team, and member states start squabbling about what posts they want?"International Herald Tribune, 29 October 2004 Crisis casts shadow on future of EU's treaty The treaty would consolidate all previous European treaties into a single document and, for the first time, would incorporate into EU law a charter of fundamental rights. "This will be the first statement of EU values," said Heather Grabbe of the Center for European Reform in London. The treaty is also important because it gives the EU a formal legal personality for the first time, enabling it to sign international agreements. It also boosts the powers of the Parliament, giving it greater scope over EU laws, budgets and appointments. But the treaty has been attacked by critics who say it makes the EU no easier to understand for the European public than the glut of past treaties. It also does little to repatriate powers to national capitals, which they say was an objective when the constitution process was launched two years ago. "The EU is all about EU countries' domestic law being aligned with one another," Grabbe said. "Therefore it is very important to have a document that expresses all of that and puts it in one place." The Times, 29 October 2004 Rome closed for a day as dignitaries flood in Few European governments had previously dared put new EU treaties to their people. "This is a seismic shift in EU politics. The EU is on the cusp of a direct democracy revolution,"wrote Daniel Keohane of the left-leaning pro-EU Centre for European Reform think-tank. The New York Times, 28 October 2004 Remark on Homosexuality Delays Seating of European Panel While the move left the commission, temporarily adrift, it suggested to skeptics that there was some life in the European Parliament, often maligned as costly and moribund. ''This has strengthened the hand of Parliament, showing that they can exercise their power,'' said Alasdair Murray, a senior research fellow with the Centre for European Reform in London. Financial Times, 28 October 2004 Positive talks but no breakthrough on Iran's nuclear aims Steven Everts, senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform, said the chances of Iran being referred to the Security Council were high."The fundamental gap remains," he said. "The Europeans want a complete suspension of enrichment . . . Iran says that anything less than their right to enrich, as guaranteed by the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, is unacceptable." Associated Press, 28 October 2004 Mission Impossible? EU launching campaign to make Europeans love the union and its new constitution The new constitution, to take effect in 2007, will create an EU president and foreign minister, and speed up decision-making by ending national vetoes in new policy areas, such as judicial and police cooperation, education and economic policy. But it is the very idea that Brussels technocrats are making important decisions without consulting ordinary people that has alienated many Europeans. "The anti-Europeans' most persuasive claim is that the EU is an elite project over which 'the people' have virtually no influence," said Steven Everts, senior research Fellow at the London-based Centre for European Reform. International Herald Tribune, 28 October 2004 EU capitals view crisis with range of concern Political analysts warned that the crisis might intensify if Barroso found himself forced to replace, not only Buttiglione, but a number of other candidates. "It could turn into a real political crisis if Barroso has to reshuffle the entire team," said Alasdair Murray, senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform in London. The danger, he said, was that member states would once again start lobbying for more powerful portfolios and that commissioners assigned new portfolios would have to change their teams of advisers. "In that case, this would become yet another part of the European malaise we've been experiencing," Murray said. The Scotsman, 28 October 2004 Mission Impossible? EU Launching Campaign to Be Loved "The anti-Europeans' most persuasive claim is that the EU is an elite project over which 'the people' have virtually no influence," said Steven Everts, senior research Fellow at the London-based Centre for European Reform. The New York Times, 27 October 2004 Remark on Homosexuality Delays Seating of European Panel While the move left the commission, temporarily adrift, it suggested to skeptics that there was some life in the European Parliament, often maligned as costly and moribund. "This has strengthened the hand of Parliament, showing that they can exercise their power," said Alasdair Murray, a senior research fellow with the Centre for European Reform in London. The Guardian, 27 October 2004 Not team players - Europe's leaders wanted their economy to overtake the US, but it still lags behind because of a lack of political will When it comes to political will, the will to obstruct can triumph over the will to press on. The difference between political will at the national and supra-national level, is illustrated by the conclusion of Alasdair Murray from the centre for European reform. He said: "Some EU countries have already met, even exceeded, the goals they set themselves at Lisbon. Denmark, Sweden and Finland are world-class economies that out-perform the US on many indicators of innovation, entrepreneurship and employment." The Christian Science Monitor, 27 October 2004 Anti-gay remarks spark EU row Parliament members say Wednesday's vote could go either way. A veto would throw the EU into crisis. "He is caught in crossfire between the Parliament, which sees an opportunity to get more power, and government leaders who do not want to cede the principle that they name commissioners," says Steven Everts, an analyst at the Centre for European Reform, a think-tank in London. If his opponents in parliament blink, and Barroso wins the showdown, he will take office having asserted his authority in the face of both powerful national governments and parliament. "It is too early to write him off as a weakling," says Everts. The Times, 26 October 2004 Battered Prodi waves goodbye EU analysts insist that his failings go further. Charles Grant, the europhile director of the Centre for European Reform think-tank, said: "He has been the most unsuccessful president in the history of the EU. He's failed to co-ordinate the work of his commissioners as a team. As a former prime minister, he was too grand to get into the nitty-gritty of dossiers, and sailed over the surface." ... "The EU is perceived to be in a pretty ghastly state. The Commission has lost its sense of purpose," Mr Grant said. International Herald Tribune, 26 October 2004 EU ministers set deadline on immigration policy "There is nothing revolutionary or historic about this deadline," said Aurore Wanlin, research fellow and migration specialist at the Centre for European Reform in London. "But at this stage there is very little else they could have done." One major wild card for policy coordination in justice and home affairs is the ratification of Europe's new constitution, she said. At least nine of the 25 EU member states have promised their voters a referendum on the document; a single rejection would block adoption. While the constitution has been criticized by some for watering down provisions for more integration, on justice and home affairs it outlines significant changes: From scrapping national vetoes in most justice and home affairs contexts to expanding the role of the European Parliament in passing legislation in those fields and bringing Europol into the EU's legal framework, the constitution would represent a "big jump forward," according to Wanlin. "Until the constitution is ratified, a lot is up in the air," she said. South China Morning Post, 24 October 2004 Whistle blower says EU stalling on corruption controls But the EU has countered that most of her complaints have already been fixed by reforms due to come in next year. EU officials, in a series of leaks, have suggested Ms Andreasen is flaky. "The commission always argued, and I think they were probably right, that she was brought in to tackle the very problems she was complaining about," said Alasdair Murray, senior researcher at the Centre for European Reform, a London-based think-tank on European affairs. "But they handled the situation rather badly and have allowed her to be seen as a kind of martyr," he said. The Wall Street Journal, 22 October 2004 EU Commission fate remains uncertain "The way it has been handles gives rise to criticism that she [Ms.Kroes] is not going to be able to do this job properly," said Alasdair Murray, a senior research fellow with the Centre for European Reform in London.European Voice, 21 October 2004 Israel spat puts hopes of closer links at risk Friction has also emerged over the Commission's insistence that there be a clause opposing weapons of mass destruction in the plan, similar to the one included in the EU's association agreement with Syria this week. Inserting that clause has been hampered by Israel's rejection of the Non-Proliferation Treaty and the secrecy surrounding its nuclear activities. The source added that intense dialogue between the two sides has seen the outstanding questions whittled down to three “touchy issues” from more than ten a fortnight ago. “It is true that this is not an easy task,” said the source. “But the momentum is there and we want to keep it.” Steven Everts from the Centre for European Reform said: "The EU should stick to its guns on Israel. There are legitimate questions about whether there is enough substance to the European Neighbourhood Policy. But if I was to target a pressure point, I would say put the emphasis on the peace process." The New York Times, 21 October 2004 Europe's new members not ready for the Euro The bigger issue, some experts said, is that the race to adopt the euro has become less urgent for most countries. They are struggling with thorny problems, like chronic unemployment, inflation and bankrupt pension systems, which a new currency will not solve. "It wouldn't be in the interest of these countries to be in the euro zone right now," said Katinka Barysch, the chief economist at the Center for European Reform in London. "It's not their main priority." The Wall Street Journal, 21 October 2004 Kroes didn't reveal to EU lobby work for Lockheed Analysts said Ms Kroes's undisclosed Lockheed work shows why the EU needs to spell out in even more detail what cold constitute potential conflicts of interest. "This seems to be an oversight" in the EU's rules, said Alasdair Murray, a senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform in London. "That kind of link is even more important than her directorships because it is less transparent." The Guardian, 21 October 2004 Joschka Fischer's new world order, sunny side up "There cannot be world order without the US. It is the only country that can project global power," he told a meeting hosted by the London School of Economics and the Centre for European Reform. "But neither the US nor Europe alone can defend against the totalitarian threat of terrorism. The west must find a way to create a strategic consensus." The Wall Street Journal, 19 October 2004 For East, path to euro poses risks - EU newcomers may lack will to overhaul economies as needed to join currency "EU accession acted as a political glue," said Katinka Barysch, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform, apolitical think-tank in London. "With the overarching objective gone and the outcome not as good as expected, that glue is gone." The Weekly Standard, 18 October 2004 Axis of weakness - Europe appeases the mullahs ...Steven Everts of the London-based Centre for European Reform in the Financial Times: "It's very, very difficult to dissuade a country from going down the path of nuclear weapons if it's convinced that its strategic approach requires them." This EU - speak roughly translates as: "You varmints better high tail it outta here, unless of course you prefer not to because you'd rather stick around and mess with the townsfolk, in which case all of us are gonna be pretty darn mad." International Herald Tribune, 18 October 2004 Questions arise on democracy at the EU Part of the reason for Parliament's robust reaction may be that it sincerely found Buttiglione's views intolerable, especially coming from a commissioner whose responsibilities could include immigration, discrimination and women's rights. "Buttiglione really said some things that it is fair to say are shocking," said Aurore Wanlin, a research fellow at the Centre for European Reform in London. "In a way he is getting what he deserves." Newsweek, 18 October 2004 Hard Work, Hard Times - Europe's fears over outsourcing look to be overblown That competitive drive, says Katinka Barysch at the Centre for European Reform in London, is crucial for Europe's survival in the global economy: "If we didn't have enlargement, we'd have to invent it." BBC, 16 October 2004 EU official says Turkey should continue implementing reforms An international conference organized in cooperation with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Centre for Strategic Studies, British Council Office in Turkey and London-based Centre for European Reform (CER) on "Turkey-European Union (EU) relations: Future opportunities and problems" started in Istanbul. Lagendijk replied questions of reporters after the conference. He said: "17 December is an important date for Turkey. What kind of surprises are waiting for Turkey?" Lagendijk said, "I do not think there will be any surprises. Big debates continue among political parties in Europe, including France, about this issue. I think France is the most indecisive country. I do not expect any surprise from other countries. Austria and Greek Cypriots will not be pleased but they will not veto. However, we all should focus on France. We should affect French politicians and its public opinion. I think, this is the only indefinite situation." European Voice, 14-20 October 2004 Heather grabbed to enlarge cabinet Think-tanks were once considered the new rock-and-roll so perhaps it is not surprising that Olli Rehn, who lists rock music among his special interests, should attempt to add luster to his cabinet, by recruiting Heather Grabbe of Charles Grant's outfit, the Centre for European Reform. Grabbe, currently CER's deputy director, will be the only non-Commission insider in the cabinet of the new commissioner for enlargement. Since the division of responsibilities is yet to be decided, Grabbe does not yet know what dossiers she will be covering. "I have spent the best part of the last decade working on enlargement-related issues so it will be great personal experience to be able to do work on future enlargements from the inside," said Grabbe, who never passes up the opportunity to issue a sound bite. Let's see if she can stomach the tedium of a cabinet for longer than did that other think-tanker, Kirsty Hughes, who threw in the towel early as deputy chef de cabinet to Anna Diamontopoulou. The Moscow Times, 14 October 2004 EU sues Berlin over Volkswagen law The VW law is a surviving symbol of Germany's postwar industrial success and of a type of social corporatism that fights to withstand global competitive pressures. "VW fits well into the German social model. It is a company trying to strike a balance between the global world and the peculiar German way of social capitalism," said Katinka Barysch, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform. The New Zealand Herald, 14 October 2004 Doubt in a place where Bush has already lost Steven Everts, of the Centre for European Reform in London, says the rift between Europe and the US over Iraq has not healed. "Europe wants a fresh start, and that includes Europeans who are pro-American ... who feel that there's just too much bad blood around," Everts told the Herald. "Europe and America need a chance to start again, and that's easier to do under a new administration." The Independent, 13 October 2004 A looming problem that transcends the borders of Europe In a report for the Centre for European Reform (CER), David Willetts, the Conservatives' work and pensions spokesman, points out that while investment in funded pensions is low in France, the complete picture looks different. He argues: "In the year 2000, an average French household saved 10.8 per cent of its income, according to the 2002 OECD Economic Outlook. In the UK, by contrast, the figure was 4.2 per cent. Household savings totaled 9.8 per cent in Germany and 12.3 per cent in Italy." While these savings are not counted as pension contributions, they are still there for later life. As Mr Willetts puts it: "French pensioners draw very little income from funded pension savings but do have an unusually large amount of income from other assets." International Herald Tribune, 13 October 2004 EU set to challenge German law that has protected VW jobs "This step is long overdue," said Katinka Barysch, chief economist of the Centre for European Reform in London. "Bolkestein has wanted to do this for a long time, and now he has nothing to lose." ..."The Volkswagen law probably does not have a leg to stand on," said Alasdair Murray, an internal market expert with the Centre for European Reform. CNN International, 13 October 2004 EU drags Germany to court over VW The VW law is a surviving symbol of Germany's post-war industrial success and of a type of social corporatism that fights to withstand global competitive pressures."VW sits well into the German social model. It is a company trying to strike a balance between the global world and the peculiar German way of social capitalism,'' said Katinka Barysch, chief economist at the Center for European Reform.The Observer, 10 October 2004 Germany's silicon valley But Katinka Barysch, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform, says there is an economic rationale for the support being offered in Dusseldorf. 'Germany doesn't particularly have a well-developed venture capital sector, and the banks tend to be conservative,' she says. 'I think there's a case to be made, in a country where funding is scarce, not to pick winners but to set up a platform for people who have an entrepreneurial idea to try to make that work.' Financial Times, 9 October 2004 UK party looks to youth vote to add impetus This is a change from the past when the Tories oversaw some of the most pro-European initiatives, including negotiating the UK's entry to the Union in 1973 and signing up to the introduction of the single market. But as Charles Grant from the Centre for European Reform, a London-based think-tank, notes: "The party has become almost entirely eurosceptical. The big argument on the EU is now between sceptics who want to stay in the EU and those who want Britain to quit."The Guardian, 8 October 2004 Battle groups aim for speed in a crisis But the battle group concept, agreed at the EU summit in June in Brussels, has been jointly pushed by Britain and France and is also backed by Germany. "Everybody is signed up for this. That's not the problem in the EU. The problem is getting them all to deliver," said Steven Everts, a defence analyst at the Centre for European Reform. The Washington Post, 7 October 2004 Turkey a step closer to joining EU Still, analysts said Wednesday's move meant that even many of those people with reservations were prepared to proceed, albeit cautiously. "This is a big step forward," said Steven Everts, senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform, a London-based think-tank. Reuters, 6 October 2004 NEWSMAKER-Liberal McCreevy gears up for EU free market post Parliamentarians are likely to question him on the need to free-up sensitive sectors such as the health sector and unskilled part-time workers. "The most immediate challenge is the services directive, which is extremely difficult to push through," said Alasdair Murray, who heads the business and social policy unit at the Centre for European Reform, a London-based think-thank. "It's a classic EU case where all member states say that in principle they are in favour but in practice the issue is likely to cause quite a large debate." The Guardian, 4 October 2004 Turks divided on meaning of EU membership While many European leaders give an official blessing to Turkish accession - unable, perhaps, to come up with a convincing excuse to keep it out - they have often worked behind the scenes to block Turkey's bid. "In the 1960s, the EU accepted the idea of Turkish membership in a fit of absent-mindedness,'' says Heather Grabbe, deputy director of the Centre for European Reform, a London-based think tank. Now, she says, it is being forced to absorb Turkey "grudgingly and with great misgiving.'' ..."Turkey's accession is unpopular ... because it forces Europeans to confront fundamental uncertainties about who they are, which values they share and how open their societies can and should be,'' said Grabbe. European Voice, 30 September 2004 Think-tanks divided over Turkey's bid to join the EU "It is clear that the EU's steady pressure has empowered the modernizers in Turkish politics. But the moderizers will only be able to keep the upper hand if the EU offers Turkey visible and measurable progress towards accession," wrote Heather Grabbe of the London based Centre for European Reform (CER) in an extensive paper on Turkey's EU bid this summer. Grabbe argued that without such encouragement, "the fragile consensus favouring reform in Turkey could quickly crumble." The CER analyst believes that EU membership for Ankara would benefit both Turkey and the Union's existing member-states. She says the prospect of joining the Union has already pushed the Turkish government to introduce major reforms on issues such as human rights, minority rights and civilian control of the army. This process would continue once the country had joined the Union, she insists. As far as other EU countries are concerned, Grabbe argues that Turkey's young and growing population would give a much-needed boost to western Europe's ageing workforce. She says Turkey could act as a bridge between the EU and the Islamic world, adding that the Union would be better able to deal with the problems of drug-trafficking and people-smuggling - Turkey is a major transit route for narcotics and illegal immigrants - if Ankara were inside the EU tent. Financial Times, 29 September 2004 Think-tanks get big by thinking smaller Finally, we are seeing the rise of more specialist think-tanks - such as the Centre for European Reform (last year's Prospect award winner) and the New Local Government Network (this year's winner). European Voice, 28 September 2004 EU facing battle over costs of peacekeeping in Bosnia Daniel Keohane from the London think-tank, the Centre for European Reform, said that the Union needed to evaluate how a more reliable system for financing military operations could be devised. "The 'costs lie where they fall' idea is quite risky when there is a need for guaranteed money to be there," he said. "In the same way as when we had floods in central Europe a few summers ago and we now have a Solidarity Fund [to cope with such emergencies], I think we need something similar for these kind of missions." MSNBC News, 28 September 2004 Embattled Blair pushes for third term - At party conference, British PM faces 'toughest week yet since the last one' Also speaking from conference, Steven Everts, a senior research fellow for the Centre for European Reform, said that although the Labour party is not faring as well in the polls as it previously has, the party is doing as well as can be expected as it looks toward a third term. "After seven years in power you will have annoyed a lot of people — I would have expected Labour to be far behind — but instead the opposition is still even further behind,"Everts said. ... "It is very important, especially for an international audience to recognize, that the biggest applause was heard after (Blair) said a political solution for Israel and Palestine had to be resolved,"said Everts. "It's very noticeable that from Blair, the party, and the country, that Israel-Palestine is probably the single biggest thing we can do to undermine the recruiting base of Islamic fundamentalists; Iraq isn't really central in the war on terror," Everts said. ... But Everts predicted a third term for the prime minister. "A lot of people believe in Blair — he was utterly convincing in saying there's still a big job to do, and that's why I think he'll win another term."Insight on the news, 28 September 2004 Europe's Failing Schools "European universities are in urgent need of reform," claims Richard Lambert, a member of the Bank of England's monetary policy committee, in a paper published earlier this year for the Centre for European Reform that reflects the way that the weakness of EU universities is starting to worry EU business. "The universities have a crucial role to play in helping the EU to achieve its goal of becoming the 'most competitive knowledge-based economy in the world'," Lambert went on. "But Europe's higher education institutions are underfunded, poorly organized, over-centralized and subjected to severe political constraints. And, as European governments are already discovering, making the necessary reforms will prove both economically and politically costly." Bloomberg, 27 September 2004 Europe Starts to Count Cost of Homeland Security: Matthew Lynn The EU is very good at creating new institutions,'' said Daniel Keohane, a defense analyst at the London-based Centre for European Reform, in a telephone interview. "But it is not so good at creating policies and implementing them.'' True enough. Still, Buttiglione's proposal highlights how little Europe has changed in response to the threat of terrorism. ...the EU has spent little on defense. Collectively, the region spends 180 billion euros ($221 billion) on defense, compared with the U.S.'s 330 billion euros, according to the Centre for European Reform. Reuters, 26 September 2004 BP exec Butler calls for single EU energy market In an article for the October/November edition for the Centre for European Reform, BP's Nick Butler also says the EU will need to engage much more closely with Russia, which is likely to become the region's main supplier of energy. "National barriers to trade in natural gas, for instance, remain a relic of a fragmented economy and should not be allowed to raise costs and prevent supplies reaching consumers," wrote Butler, who is group vice-president for strategy. "EU governments need to create a genuine single market for energy across the Union," he added. Butler also wrote that while it was not the role of European governments to "designate European champions", EU competition policy should be founded on an understanding that consumers' interests would be best served by companies with a global reach. The Financial Times, 22 September 2004 Iran arms drive wedge between EU and US "It's very, very difficult to dissuade a country from going down the path of nuclear weapons if it's convinced that its strategic approach requires them, but that's not a reason to give up," says Steven Everts, a foreign policy expert at the Centre for European Reform, a London-based think-tank. "Indeed one reason why the EU approach has seemed to have failed is the lack of positive US support." Wall Street Journal, 21 September 2004 EU nominee to sever Business ties "This goes further than anyone has ever done before as far as trying to clear themselves of potential conflicts of interest," said Alasdair Murray of the Centre for European Reform in London. "It seems quite draconian." But he doubted the pledge was legally enforecable beyond one year. International Herald Tribune, 21 September 2004 EU's Kroes confronts conflicts of interest "The commission is making a big effort to be more transparent, but by making it more transparent it opens itself up to questions about conflicts of interest," said Alasdair Murray of the Centre for European Reform in London. United Press International, 20 September 2004 France and Spain debut new terror teams Daniel Keohane, a security expert at the London-based Centre for European Reform, called French-Spanish announcement "very interesting," noting it marked a stark break from a history of largely procedural cooperation in fighting terrorism among EU countries. "At the moment, the terrorists have the advantage," Keohane said. "Because they can move so easily and the police cannot. This is a good way to get around that problem, and make it easier to connect the dots in gathering evidence, in gathering intelligence, when these groups move across borders." ... But there as well, efforts to crack down on terrorism have been frustrated by lack of trans-border cooperation.... A case in point, said Keohane of the Centre for European Reform, was that of a planned attack against the U.S. Embassy in Paris a few years ago. "The Dutch police had information that would have been very useful to the French, but they didn't realize it until a long time after the fact," Keohane said. "The police weren't talking to each other, so they couldn't help each other." What police cooperation does exist in Europe is often ad-hoc, and largely dependent on personal relations between individual officers, rather than any systematic policy, he said. ..."I could see this being a Europe-wide initiative in time," said Keohane, of the European centre. "But for now, I think other countries will wait and see just exactly what the French and Spanish have in mind -- see how it works in practice, and take it from there." Time, 19 September 2004 What Next For NATO? Now there are roughly twice as many European troops deployed outside the EU and NATO countries as there were 10 years ago, according to Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform in London. Most of them are doing peacekeeping work under the NATO banner. Newsweek, 18 September 2004 Britain's Big Tent- The real 'new Europe' is an arc of countries that share a very English approach to the region The new dichotomy is between "Eurorealism" and traditional postwar "sentimentalism," as Alasdair Murray of the Centre for European Reform in London puts it. This is the real "new Europe," not the one that U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld stumbled upon when he sought to draw a line between European countries that supported America's war in Iraq and those that did not. CNN.com, 17 September 2004 France out of love with Europe "Things in the EU aren't going the way France wants and will continue going that way," said Katinka Barysch, chief economist at the London-based Centre for European Reform think-tank. "France realizes that in the enlarged European Union it will no longer be able to call the shots ... It's part of the growing euro-skepticism you see all across Europe." ...But Barysch said the total of taxes paid by firms in eastern Europe is not very different from those paid in France. She said Sarkozy took no account of other taxes in the new member states or of tax concessions that French and German firms benefit from. International Herald Tribune, 17 September 2004 Car parts offer peek under hood of Europe "The commissioners are independent - and they are not,” said Alasdair Murray at the Centre for European Reform in London. "There is an element of distance. They are in Brussels as a retirement gift or to get them out of the way, or they are ambitious themselves. Sometimes, though, it helps to have someone at the table reporting on what might happen in their home country." ..."Some projects get stuck in council for years,"said Murray of the Centre for European Reform, adding that plans for a common European patent have been held up by Spain and Germany. "They run into vested interests." The Wall Street Journal, 17 September 2004 Business ties could hurt competition enforcer Alasdair Murray, senior researcher at the Centre for European Reform, said that in Europe "no one is expected to sell their shares." The Christian Science Monitor, 17 September 2004 Common currency? New flag? Nope. Try golf to unify Europe In other sports, creating Team Europe simply would not generate the same dynamic. "In ice hockey, for example, the Czechs prefer to beat the Germans, and the Finns want to overcome the Swedes, rather than play against the Americans," says Daniel Keohane of the Centre for European Reform, a think-tank here. "In volleyball, again, there is more rivalry among the Europeans than between Europe and America." Even if England is playing Argentina or Germany, countries they've been at war with, Welsh and Scots fans will still support the team playing [against] England," says Mr. Keohane. As for rugby, Keohane says that during a recent World Cup he noticed that some Europeans got behind the French when they were playing Australia. "But even then there was a girl from Luxembourg who couldn't stand the idea of the French winning." A bigger question is whether this glaring lack of European sporting unity hints at deep-seated problems with European integration? After all, the history of the EU has been punctuated by the sometimes intractable problem of reconciling national, even tribal, urges with pan-European initiatives. Keohane says that, on the contrary, the sporting scene is a microcosm of what is good about Europe. "It's because we're all different that makes us European," he says. "It's not about taking away identities but allowing them to coexist peacefully. That is what Europe is about." International Herald Tribune, 16 September 2004 EU urged to revise terror responses According to Daniel Keohane, a security specialist at the London-based Centre for European Reform, the document crystallizes the differences between Europe's security strategy and that of America. "The US rates, analyzes and solves problems very much in military terms," Keohane said. "Europe prides itself in using a whole range of means, including aid, economic incentives and civilian police forces." ...Defense experts welcomed what they called a range of innovative and ambitious ideas, but many questioned whether the proposals would be implemented. "The EU is great for setting out all sorts of plans and solutions but its record of implementation is poor," Keohane said. "The problem is that they don't put their money where their mouth is." A leaders' summit meeting was held after the Madrid train bombings on March 11 and a host of measures to streamline Europe's fight against terrorism was discussed. The only concrete result has been the appointment of an EU terrorism czar, Gijs de Vries of the Netherlands, Keohane said. Euractiv.com, 15 September 2004 Stability Pact debate moves further towards debt sustainability Katinka Barysch, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform, likened the rules of the pact to "rubber bands", pointing out that they had been interpreted and re-interpreted so often that "you would be hard pressed to find anyone who knows exactly what the rules of the pact are right now". Her view is that the slate should have been wiped clean and the rules rewritten from scratch. International Herald Tribune, 14 September 2004 'Old Europe' is 'good as new,' Zapatero says Just how much the now 18-month-old divisions over Iraq still matter in Europe was exemplified by the conspicuous absence of Britain during the talks Monday's talks. When Schröder and Chirac met President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who also opposed the war, in the Black Sea resort of Sochi two weeks ago, Prime Minister Tony Blair of Britain was not invited. "My main question is: Why aren't the Brits there?" said Katinka Barysch at the Centre for European Reform in London. "It's quite curious that France and Germany have all this summitry going on without Britain." European Voice, 9-15 September 2004 EU explores giant leap to become global Space power Daniel Keohane, of think-tank the Centre for European Reform, said: "Europe has a lot of useful Space technology but governments are only realizing it now, particularly since the Iraq war. Surveillance can be used to detect terrorist chatter or to find terrorist camps." ...Keohane said the EU should "spend less on things like conscript troops and outdated weapons systems" to be able to increase the Space budget. International Herald Tribune, 13 September 2004 Will Turkey join the EU club? But some EU observers questioned whether Turkey would really have so much say as a member of the EU. They note that voting weights are of limited importance, given that the most sensitive decisions in the Union still require unanimous approval. "We don't vote that much in the EU - the EU is a consensus-driven organization," said Steven Everts of the Centre for European Reform in London. Everts also pointed out that even if the demographic projections make Turkey the most populous country in the region, it would not be able to block any decisions alone; it would need the populations of at least two other big countries to meet the required 35-per cent mark. Agence France Presse, 7 September 2004 France's EU grief Heather Grabbe, deputy director of the London-based Centre for European Reform noted that, during an EU summit in Nice in 2000, Chirac lobbied for the incoming members to have less voting weight than the current 15 states. "French officials with their haughty attitude towards the new member states have created a great deal of mistrust," she said. "These things have not been forgotten." ...Grabbe said that, in any case, the idea of Europe's bigger countries making decisions from a high table "just smacks too much of the past," when central and eastern Europe was carved up according to the wishes of the powers at the time. The close Franco-German co-operation in many EU areas has so far been seen as a mechanism for the two countries to protect their interests, especially when it was used to break the rules underpinning the euro with impunity, she said. International Herald Tribune, 3 September 2004 Europe, easing budget rules, bows to the inevitable "The original pact is pretty much dead," said Katinka Barysch, chief economist of the Centre for European Reform in London. "We still have the skeleton but it will be a very different animal, a much looser system. It will be about peer pressure rather than sanction." The Prague Post, 2 September 2004 Anti-corruption proposal raises privacy concerns Bublan's proposal is stricter than existing laws in many European Union countries, said Katinka Barysch, chief economist for the Centre for European Reform, an independent think-tank in London. However, the conduct of politicians in other EU states is regulated by stricter norms of behavior, Barysch added. "If journalists in such countries find that the prime minister's wife has, for example, taken a loan from a company that has just received a government grant, the prime minister would be in trouble, even though it may not be illegal," Barysch said. "That kind of culture change is emerging very slowly in the Czech Republic." Business Week, 2 September 2004 If You're Not With Us... "It's not an economy that's on its knees," notes Steven Everts, a researcher at the Centre for European Reform in London. The Europeans might support targeted sanctions on the oil and gas industry and tourism. But Deputy Secretary of State Richard L. Armitage told BusinessWeek on Sept. 1 that the U.N. Security Council has little enthusiasm for sanctions. He wonders whether anything can stop Iran from becoming a nuclear power. "The dream of being a player on a large stage is in the breast of most Iranians," he says. The New York Times, 28-29 August 2004 Can galloping Britain catch gloomy Germany? Katinka Barysch, a German economist based in Britain, noted that surveys suggest that two-thirds of Germans worry about losing their jobs. "When you're worried," she added, "you don't spend. When you feel good, you do." ..."The British picture has its shadows," said Barysch. "The most un-equal economy in the European Union, with spreading poverty and social exclusion. Poor public transport that often leaves people unable to get to work on time. But this is a place now boasting full employment in the south-east ans a country flexible enough to allow people to get ahead, Euro-zone job protection needs reform". International Herald Tribune, 28 August 2004 Unlikely alliance built on opposition to Iraq war raises questions While Germany may seek support for its effort to become a permanent member of the Security Council, Russia has said it wants to push for reform of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe. It could also delay its plans to join the World Trade Organization. But according to experts like Katinka Barysch of the London-based Centre for European Reform, none of those issues warrant a three-way summit. "There is no real glue holding the three together – past opposition to a war that has long been over just isn't enough," she said. "France is trying to stick close to Germany's side because it knows it is losing influence in Brussels," Barysch said. Some say the talks in Sochi represent something that cannot last and that the real power-triangle in Europe is to be found elsewhere. The Prague Post, 19 August 2004 Government jobs plan under fire - Economists criticize Cabinet's push to bolster employment Katinka Barysch, chief economist for the Centre for European Reform, a London-based independent think-tank, agreed that education was a vital part of any drive to create jobs. She said the Czech Republic is relatively advanced compared to some of its neighbors in terms of its high-tech industries, and needs to make sure people get university education, retraining and on-the-job training. According to Barysch, another target for the government should be attracting investment to areas with high numbers of people out of work. This could be done by improving the infrastructure - such as roads and telephone networks - needed by firms. Financial Times Deutschland, 19 August 2004 Barroso feilt an Europas Regierung "Der Mangel an Zusammenhalt war eines der Probleme der Kommission von (Amtsvorgänger Romano) Prodi2, sagt Alasdair Murray vom Centre for European Reform in London. "Die einzelnen Kommissaore hatten zu viel Unabhängigkeit." Le courrier du Vietnam, 19 August 2004 Europe: Le futur président de la Commission veut changer l'image de Bruxelles "Barrosso affirme ainsi qu'il veut diriger une maison honnête. C'est une réorganisation interne qui a du sens parce qu'elle place tous les éléments sous une seule autorité et que Kallas pourra poursuivre le processus de réforme engagé par (le vice-président sortant Neil) Kinnock" estime Alasdair Murray, du Centre for European Reform. Le Monde, 18 August 2004 Pourquoi l'influence française s'est affaiblie à Bruxelles Au-delà de la personnalité de M. Barrot - que sa longue carrière en France n'a pas préparé, fait-on observer, à un poste européen - au-delà même de ses responsabilités de commussaire, la vérité, selon Steven Everts, chercheur au Centre for European Reform de Londres, est que la France, comme l'Allemagne, a "perdu du terrain" en Europe et qu'au lieu de réagir à cette situation "d'une manière très défensive, voire destructrice", en tentant de bloquer ou de contourner les institutions... Pour M.Everts, Jacques Chirac et Gerhard Schröder ne se soucient pas vraiment de l'Europe. La question est désormais de savoir si, face au "déclin" de leurs pays, ils sauront faire preuve d'espirit d'ouverture ou bien persévéreront dans leur posture passée. Defense News.com, 17 August 2004 US pullout puts pressure on Europe's defense plans While no crisis is imminent, Europe is quite aware that it would struggle to cope with another conflict like those that wracked the Balkans for much of the 1990s. "If there were any future Kosovos in and around Europe, the Europeans would have to look after themselves," said Daniel Keohane of the Center for European Reform. "Certainly the Europeans will have to think in more autonomous terms about looking after their own security." EU Business.com, 17 August 2004 US pullout puts pressure on Europe's defence plans "If there were any future Kosovos in and around Europe, the Europeans would have to look after themselves," said Daniel Keohane of the Centre for European Reform. "Certainly the Europeans will have to think in more autonomous terms about looking after their own security." EU Business.com, 14 August 2004 EU's new commission chief nails free-market colours to the mast "One of the criticisms of Prodi is that he didn't show much leadership on the Lisbon goals," said Alasdair Murray of the Centre for European Reform, a think-tank in London. "Barroso appears to be saying 'I want to sink or swim on this'," he said. Aljazeera, 14 August 2004 Special article: the West and Irans nukes program "The Iranians feel they're on a roll," says Steven Everts, senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform in London. This confidence, adds Everts, could prove misplaced. If Washington shows that kind of flexibility, "it increases the chances of Europe supporting a more robust course of measures later," says Everts. The Guardian, 13 August 2004 New EU security chief offers bold plan "Increasing cooperation among intelligence services is a very desirable objective, but it's also a very difficult one,'' said Steven Everts, a senior research fellow at the Center for European Reform in London. "Intelligence services like to share things - but on a bilateral or even trilateral basis or on an ad hoc basis.'' The idea of an EU border force has been around for years, but experts said some countries are unlikely to want to share the costs of an EU-wide force. "I think we are more likely to see as a first step minimum standards and common procedures for national border guards,'' Everts said. CBS news, 13 August 2004 EU Official Wants Anti-Terror Unit "Increasing cooperation among intelligence services is a very desirable objective. But it's also a very difficult one," said Steven Everts, a senior research fellow at the Center for European Reform in London. "Intelligence services like to share things — but on a bilateral or even trilateral basis or on an ad hoc basis." Experts noted that some countries might not be prepared to share the costs of a Europe-wide force, and they predicted that in coming years national forces would remain in charge. "I think we are more likely to see as a first step minimum standards and common procedures for national border guards," Everts said. The Scotsman, 13 August 2004 Mandelson appointed to lead EU trade "The new commission will have a definite bias towards people who are in favour of reforming the European economy," said Alasdair Murray, an analyst at the Centre for European reform, a London think-tank with close ties to Downing Street. The Guardian, 13 August 2004 How Barroso secured the reformist team he wanted Alasdair Murray, of the Centre for European Reform, described the appointments as a major setback for Jacques Chirac and Gerhard Schröder, who had alienated their European counterparts with heavy-handed tactics. Mr Chirac pushed hard for Guy Verhofstadt, the Belgian prime minister, to be made commission president, while Mr Schröder tried to win a "super-commissioner" post encompassing the four economic portfolios. "I think France and Germany boxed Barroso in a way that he could never have given them what they wanted," Mr Murray said. "He would have been perceived as being weak from day one. The Germans, in particular, massively over-played their hand. Verheugen is a second-term commissioner from a major member state. He was always going to get a big post." He added: "They tried to double-guess Barroso and haven't got anything like what they wanted." Business Week, 12 August 2004 Why Iran is giving the West the willies "The Iranians feel they're on a roll," says Steven Everts, senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform in London. That confidence, adds Everts, could prove misplaced. He thinks the West will be forced to respond with stiff sanctions if Iran builds a bomb. Is there a way out, now that both the Europeans' diplomatic approach and the Americans' hard-nosed tack have failed? One option, analysts say, is for them to switch roles, with Europe playing the bad cop by advocating sanctions and the U.S. holding out the carrot of diplomatic relations in exchange for ending the nuke program. If Washington shows that kind of flexibility, "it increases the chances of Europe supporting a more robust course of measures later," says Everts. That's the hope. But success is hardly assured. Reuters, 12 August 2004 EU "wreckers" target election The Conservatives fear UKIP may steal some of their votes from those who would like to see party leader Michael Howard taking a tougher, anti-EU line. "But they are a threat to all the parties," added Heather Grabbe, of the Centre for European Reform, saying they may also take votes from eurosceptic members of Blair's Labour Party. UKIP must decide soon whether it will prioritise activism in Brussels or Britain, she added. "In terms of money they're not doing badly. But they've got pretty limited resources in terms of people. Are they going to deploy them in Brussels or in Wakefield and Hartlepool?" Newsweek, 9 August 2004 Europe After Monti - The race is on to replace the controversial competition czar, and its outcome is critical to the EU's future Monti's successor will help determine whether Europe ever becomes a truly single market of 450 million people dynamic enough to compete with the United States. Competition policy is "where the commission has real power to push forward the economic agenda," says Alasdair Murray, analyst at London's Centre for European Reform. "It's hugely crucial who gets the post." Barroso knows that in order to keep Britain and other less enthusiastic members engaged in the EU, it's crucial that the new commission not be seen as what Murray calls "a statist throwback doing the bidding of Paris and Berlin." In deflecting pressures so far, Barroso has already shown himself to be feisty and independent. The future competitiveness of the EU will depend on whether his new competition commissioner will be, too. The Times, 4 August 2004 Barroso has to pick the aces from his deck of 25 Although it has attracted some criticism in the European media for being lightweight in comparison to the last one, the new Commission actually contains some senior politicians."There is a perception they are inexperienced, but there are a lot of big names. Nearly all the people come with ministerial experience, which is what you need," Alasdair Murray, of the London-based Centre for European Reform, said. "Being a commissioner is like running a government department, but more technocratic," he added. Dr Barroso has said that he wants eight of the twenty-five commissioners to be women. He reached his target last night when the Netherlands nominated a female. Most analysts, however, are saying that it is time for the EU to retrench and win back the support of the European public. Mr Murray said: "You have got to do a little bit less to do more. Stop asking for new powers until you can use the ones you already have properly.”" International Herald Tribune, 4 August 2004 In Europe, latest alert sets off no alarms Daniel Keohane, a defense expert at the Centre for European Reform in London, said Europe could do with a bit more U.S.-style preparation: "When you're looking at contingency planning, Europeans are behind the U.S.," he said. "But they are also more reticent to jump to conclusions about threats." EU observer.com, 4 August 2004 Member states send heavy hitters to Brussels Steven Everts, senior researcher at London-based Centre for European Reform, believes this is a "very positive" step for the commission. He argues that one of the main problems with the current commission is its "weak links with capitals". Having people who are close to the administration at home, he says, will mean that the Commission is not so out of step with its member states. But leadership is the key. "The most important thing is to have stronger leadership at the heart of the commission", says Mr Everts. The current commission has an "unprecedented" number of big hitters - such as competition commissioner Mario Monti and external relations commissioner Chris Patten - but they were all "very poorly led". From the very beginning the new president, José Manuel Durão Barroso, will have to "learn to say no" - both to overbearing member states as well as to taking on too many new projects for the commission. "Trade and competition are by their nature pre-eminent", says Mr Everts. However, he believes that the most important issue is not to have the super commissioner with an economic portfolio which Germany had been pushing for. "What people objected to was that this would have created a line of accountability other than the president", said Mr Everts. EU business.com, 31 July 2004 EU chief faces holiday haggle over new Brussels team The former Portuguese prime minister, who will take office on November 1, must play off competing demands from the European Union's 25 member states in what promises to be an EU horse-trading session par excellence. "He's certainly going to have his work cut out," said Alasdair Murray of the Centre for European Reform in London. "There's going to be a lot of horsetrading," said Murray, adding that Barroso - who has vowed a "strong, independent" Commission which can face up to EU capitals - can't simply leave smaller and new states with the dregs. "They're going to have to be given something, especially the new member states," he said. "The commission's position in relation to (EU governments) and theparliament has been weakened over the last decade. There have been two indifferent to poor commission presidents," said Murray. Sydney Morning Herald, 30 July 2004 Brick wall is all many Poles find in London Alasdair Murray, from London's Centre for European Reform, said while it was unfortunate that many Poles were finding Britain tough, their experiences showed that expansion had not been the bogeyman many Britons feared. "There will be some people who feel that EU has let them down, that the whole point of joining was to help them find work in other countries, but again the figures of people who actually want to do it is relatively small," he said. The Financial Times, 30 July 2004 Europe trio seeks guarantee on Iran nuclear policy Diplomats played down expectations of any breakthrough after yesterday's discussions at the French Foreign Ministry. "The important question now is whether Iran is prepared to accept that it cannot have control over the fuel cycle, as the EU3, like the US, now demand," said Steven Everts, senior research fellow at the London-based Centre for European Reform. "The EU3 idea is that the west and Russia would guarantee supply of nuclear fuel in return for Iran renouncing control of the full fuel cycle. This would rule out the possibility that Iran could later announce its intention to withdraw from the NPT and have a bomb." ... "The US is looking at co-ercive options, beginning with sanctions," said Mr Everts. "But Washington understands there is no chance of European support for punitive actions later if it does not let the EU3 try diplomatic means first." The Prague Post, 29 July 2004 Spidla going to Brussels I spoke with Heather Grabbe, an EU enlargement expert at the London-based Center for European Reform, back when the government was first trying to find someone qualified to take the job. She was clear that for a small country such as the Czech Republic it was vital to nominate someone well known outside the country, perhaps, she said, a former prime minister. "The quality of the candidate matters a lot in determining what portfolio a country gets," Grabbe said. International Herald Tribune, 27 July 2004 In Europe, passionate cheering for Kerry Most European historians and political pundits agree that it has been a long time, at least a generation, since the world has felt so consumed with passion about an American election, and since so many have been so hopeful of regime change in Washington. This year, they say, there is one place where the choice between John Kerry and George W. Bush will indeed have a profound impact, and interestingly it is not the Middle East. It is Europe. Steven Everts, senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform, a London-based think tank, said, "This is a foreign policy election for the U.S. and a critical election for the world." "If Bush is defeated, Europe will say this was a difficult period, but an aberration,"Everts said. "Four more years of Bush, however, will have a long-term impact on European policy, and the development of a permanent rift between the U.S. and Europe.'' One crucial foreign policy difference between Kerry and Bush, he added, is that Kerry would disconnect the war in Iraq from the wider war on terror — a linkage the Bush administration has repeatedly asserted exists but that Europe has never bought. "If we can disconnect that, it would unlock potential for cooperation in the future between America and Europe,"Everts said. Financial Times, 25 July 2004 Domestic politics dictate Barroso's Brussels team Heather Grabbe, of the Centre for European Reform, says Mr Barroso could find the quality he needs from among the new member states. "There are some very good people from central and eastern Europe, because a Commission job is a very prestigious post for them," she said. Danuta Hübner of Poland is among those expected to get a good job. The Guardian, 23 July 2004 The devil you know- He may not be popular, but Peter Mandelson has the potential to be a much better EU commissioner than his critics think Charles Grant, the director of the Centre for European Reform, thinks that Mr Mandelson's background makes him ideal commissioner material. "In order to be an effective commissioner it helps to have an extensive range of contacts all over Europe, and he has those contacts already," he says. He also believes that his standing as a political heavyweight, combined with Britain's clout in the EU, will guarantee him a top job in the commission. Reuters, 23 July 2004 "Prince of Darkness" gets top EU post Sending a heavyweight to Brussels should help Blair's standing there - undermined by the country's euro outsider status and long entanglement in Iraq. "If you send a big figure you get a bigger and better job, which promotes Britain's interests. It is also seen as a token of how seriously you take the European Union," said Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform in London. ITV.com, 23 July 2004 Mandelson 'to become Europe commissioner' Peter Mandelson is expected to become Britain's new European Commissioner, it has been reported. Long a supporter of UK membership of the euro, Mr Mandelson's appointment will please Europe but may bring a domestic backlash due to his controversial career, analysts said. "Whatever you think of Peter Mandelson, he is a heavyweight politician and that will go down well in Europe," said Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform in London. EU Observer.com, 20 July 2004 Mixed report on euro after first five years Katinka Barysch, economics expert at the Centre for European Reform, believes that the euro has had an impressive first five years. "If you think back to when the euro was introduced, we had predictions of absolute disaster", she recalled. "But what happened? Absolutely nothing". "The introduction of the euro was about as smooth as the introduction of a currency could possibly be", she said, adding that the European Central Bank now has an excellent reputation. And she thinks that the slow growth in the euro zone is less to do with the euro and more to do with the effects of German reunification, which has slowed growth in Europe's largest economy. "Slow growth in the euro zone is not really a euro issue", said Ms Barysch. The Prague Post, 15 July 2004 Bribery rumours plague CSSD But Katinka Barysch, chief economist for the London-based Centre for European Reform, called Gross' offer to Benes "unusually crass." She said that when forming a coalition government, it is not normal to offer posts to the opposition. "You cannot form a government by buying people. Then you end up running the country in a very unstable position. I think he must be a bad politician," Barysch said. Bloomberg news, 14 July 2004 France's Chirac Pledges Referendum on EU Constitution In the UK, which has no national constitution, Blair faces opposition from a majority of voters and some members of his Labour Party. "The chances of one country rejecting the referendum are quite high,'' said Katinka Barysch, chief economist at the London- based Centre for European Reform, a research institute. Tapei Times, 14 July 2004 European Union needs action, not abstract policies Charles Grant, the head of the UK's Centre for European Reform, has speculated on what would happen "if Britain votes No." If it was just the UK, he argues, there would indeed be pressure for the country to vote again (as Denmark did in 1992 and Ireland in 2001), or to remove the country from the union to some sort of associate status. If several others, and not just "small countries," also vote No, there will be a tendency (according to Grant), especially in France and Germany, "to move ahead with a core Europe." But what, one must ask, would this "core Europe" do? In particular, how would the governments of any "core Europe" deal with the fact that, as the European elections in early June have shown, their own peoples are far from enthusiastic about the union? Bloomberg news, 13 July 2004 EU governemnts brokes bidget law, highest court says "It's on the commission's interest that there is political ownership of the stabiliy pact," said Katinka Barysch, chief economist at the London -based think-tank the Centre for European Reform. The Guardian, 13 July 2004 EU ministers 'should have punished France and Germany over deficits' While excessive deficit procedures may now be restarted against Germany and France the prospect of fines appears remote. "I can't see fines being imposed, as half of the eurozone is in breach of the stability and growth pact," said Katinka Barysch, chief economist with the Centre for European Reform. "But it does confirm the commission as the guardian of the EU treaties and that larger states cannot simply push the rules aside." NRC Handelsblad, 12 July 2004 Nederland, Irak en de Europese militaire leer De Britse krijgskundige Lawrence Freedman vergeleek onlangs in een belangwekkend essay in de bundel A European Way of War de Amerikaanse manier van ordehandhaving in naoorlogs Irak met de Engelse. De Britten doen het beter omdat ze grotere ervaring hebben met het gaande houden van moeizame vredesmissies. De ongeduldige Amerikanen zijn hier niet bedreven in en neigen naar het prompte resultaat van een grote oorlogscampagne. In Irak moeten de Europese coalitiepartners hun militaire strategie niet aanpassen aan die van Amerika. De kernvraag is nu, aldus Freedman, of de Amerikaanse troepen zich kunnen aanpassen aan de Europese manier van oorlogvoeren - lees vredeshandhaving. Het antwoord erop zal inderdaad bepalend zijn voor een geslaagde staatsopbouw in Irak. Newsweek, 12 July 2004 A Bridge Builder Alasdair Murray of the Centre for European Reform points out that the EU presidency—which rotates from country to country every six months and is not to be confused with the EC president's job—has been in the hands of a Washington ally for six months (Ireland) and will be assumed by more friends (the Netherlands, Luxembourg and Britain) in the years ahead. That could help further U.S. interests: the Dutch presidency is likely to be more supportive of Turkey's nomination to join the EU, for instance, a decision that will be reached in the coming months, than would the French. Having Duro Barroso in place as well could help persuade the skeptics to provide reconstruction euros to Iraq. Daily Times - A new voice for a new Pakistan, 10 July 2004 Comment: The Constitution of Europe by Ralf Dahrendorf Charles Grant, the head of Britain's Centre for European Reform, has speculated on what would happen “if Britain votes No”. If it was just Britain, he argues, there would indeed be pressure for the country to vote again (as Denmark did in 1992 and Ireland in 2001), or to remove the country from the Union to some sort of associate status. If several others, and not just “small countries,” also vote No, there will be a tendency (according to Grant), especially in France and Germany, “to move ahead with a core Europe.” The Independent, 5 July 2004 Geoff Hoon: Britain is shaping the defence debate in Europe: From a speech by the Secretary of State for Defence, given at the Centre for European Reform in London The transformation of European defence capabilities is progressing. During the Kosovo campaign the United States was relied on to conduct almost 85 per cent of air strike sorties. By contrast, the Nato Response Force will largely involve the commitment of European forces. Last year, European countries had an average of 70,000 forces deployed out of area. This demonstrates that by improving European capabilities, the European Security and Defence Policy benefits not only the European Union, but Nato and individual member states as well. Now, we should not pretend to ourselves that this transformation has been even nearly completed. We need to decide how much we can take on: what defence departments call the "Level of Ambition". Second, we need to secure the benefit from the EU's recent enlargement. European defence is a prime example of Britain shaping the debate in Europe. We are winning the argument on the Continent, leading the way, and succeeding, in building a coalition in favour of a flexible, inclusive and Nato-friendly EU. Now I want to take the argument forward to win the battle of ideas in the UK, to use European defence as a key example of why we need to be integrally involved in Europe and not sitting on the sidelines, out of the loop. All the arguments are on our side. In defence, as in so many areas, Britain's way is the European way. Washington Post, 3 July 2004 Europe unites over a passion for soccer The new constitution negotiated two weeks ago by leaders meeting in Brussels has triggered little public enthusiasm. Polls indicate that people throughout the continent feel alienated from the Eurocratic bureaucracy. Voter turnout in recent elections to the European Parliament dipped below 30 percent in some areas. "The European elections didn't bring people together," said Charles Grant, director of the London-based Centre for European Reform. "But football does." The Times, 2 July 2004 Barroso holds key to EU future Barroso's reputation as a reformer comes from his two years as Prime Minister of Portugal. When he took over in April 2002, the budget deficit was ballooning, breaching limits which euro countries are supposed to observe, although France and Germany decided to ignore them last year. He plunged the country into a deeply unpopular austerity programme, cutting public service jobs and reforming labour laws. Alasdair Murray of the Centre for European Reform in London argues that as Barroso "tried to do some of the hard work, I'd have thought he might want to get tough with France and Germany". ...Alasdair Murray believes that Germany is unlikely to prevail. "The worst thing that could happen — (the appointment of) Verheugen — won't", he says. "Even though he has a liberal bent, it would be perceived as giving Germany a veto over Commission economic policymaking". The Economist, 1 July 2004 A common flop: The Europeans' soft approach to Iran seems to have failed For the Europeans, the deal was the sweeter because it showed a new unity after the bitter divisions over Iraq, argues Steven Everts in a report for the Centre for European Reform, a think-tank. It bolstered the case for non-proliferation-by-inspection rather than force, and showed that multilateral diplomacy and "soft power"could work even on hard problems. And success would have shown that the European Union's common foreign policy (the full EU backed the big three) could make its weight felt beyond its own backyard. The Financial Times, 1 July 2004 Turkey poses next big conundrum for EU "This is about what happens to European integration by bringing in such a large country," says Steven Everts from the Centre for European Reform. "It is about the financial costs, the size of Turkey, its strategic location. The debate, however, may end up being populist." Washington Post, 1 July 2004 Blair Fails to Patch Up Transatlantic Feud "A rift between the US and France greatly damages Blair's position because it forces him to choose between them when he wants to be a bridge," said Daniel Keohane, a researcher at the Centre for European Reform. ...But analysts say Blair cannot afford to shrug off deteriorating relations with France. "Blair needs Paris on his side because Britain needs Europe to have more influence in Washington," said Keohane, who says Blair might appease Chirac by speaking out against Bush on a major policy issue Radio Free Europe, 30 June 2004 Iraq: Handover - Baghdad Can't Expect Much Outside Help Until Security Is Under Control Security analyst Daniel Keohane of the London-based Centre for European Reform says much depends on whether the interim government under Prime Minister Iyad Allawi can put its own stamp of authority on the country. "What is really crucial is that the interim government not only shows that it is in control, but shows that it is different from the Americans, and gains the confidence of the Iraqi people. I think that would make a big difference, because it is very different when you are dealing with what is effectively an occupier, and when you are dealing with what is supposed to be your own government," Keohane said. Bloomberg, 30 June 2004 Portugal's Barroso, New EU Leader, May Confront France, Germany "Is he going to be tough enough and rough enough to stand up to the big governments?'' asked Charles Grant, director of the London-based Centre for European Reform and biographer of Jacques Delors, commission president from 1985 to 1995. Durao Barroso "may be bullyable,'' he said. International Herald Tribune, 28 June 2004 EU leaders settle on executive president "They haven't really tried to find the best candidate for the job - they've just tried to find someone who nobody can object to," said Heather Grabbe, the director of research at the Centre for European Reform in London. "There must be a better way of awarding these international jobs," she said. The Financial Times, 26/27 June 2004 Britain in the EU: Despite repeated pledges to make the case for Europe, Blair has dithered. There are fears he may do so again Charles Grant, the director of the Centre for European Reform, says he understands why the prime minister wants to focus on his domestic concerns. "But if he thinks he can come back and win a short campaign after the election, he really needs to think again," he says. Mr Grant is particularly concerned that many in government and business do not understand the consequences of a No vote in the referendum. "If Britain votes No, there will be a two-speed Europe and we will be in the slow lane. That will be a development with revolutionary consequences." ...Charles Grant puts the blame on Mr Blair's pro-European cabinet collegues. "They don't speak out, they don't make the case and Blair has been very much on his own. Those who are pro-European are too scared to speak out for fear it won't advance their careers," he says. Deutsche Welle, 26 June 2004 Space and European Security According to Daniel Keohane of the Centre for European Reform in London, during its early stages, the agency will neither have a procurement budget nor the ability to manage procurement programs. Instead, it will seek to coordinate cooperation between existing agencies. They include OCCAR, a defense partnership between Britain, France, Germany and Italy, which is responsible for administering the A400 project (photo). The second big player is the Western European Armaments Organization, a 19-member group that conducts international defense research and development. The New Zealand Herald, 26 June 2004 Identity crisis splits Nato "Nato and the EU should not compete with each other. In the years to come they will sink or swim together," says Daniel Keohane of the London-based Centre for European Reform. "If the Europeans were to succeed in boosting their military capabilities, American respect for Nato would grow, and the EU would benefit. If they fail both Nato and the EU will suffer." The Guardian, 25 June 2004 Know your minds As only 10 women - and hardly any politicians - made it into Prospect magazine's top 100 list of public intellectuals, we are inviting your nominations for the best thinkers in Britain. Come to think of it, where's Helena Kennedy? Needless to say, only 10 women make it into the top 100, and among them only Melanie Phillips could be deemed to have any influence whatsoever in the political sphere. Instead, there's a clutch of thinktankers (David Green, Charles Grant, Geoff Mulgan), the social policy theorist Julian Le Grand, Bernard Crick, Robert Cooper and David Marquand. Labour listens ardently to all of them, but the vast majority of the public haven't a clue who they are. That's partly because they represent an older and more reticent generation of political thinkers. Heather Grabbe, the deputy director of the Centre for European Reform (Grant has the top job) will undoubtedly be on the list in five years' time. International Herald Tribune, 25 June 2004 What role for Europe in cleaning up Iraq? Steven Everts, a defense expert at the Centre for European Reform in London, says there is a better solution than more troops. The most important thing for Iraq today is that the nascent government should come out from under the shadow of the United States, he said. "What Iraq needs right now is a political showdown between the new Iraqi government and the Americans - and which the Iraqis have to win," Everts said. "They need to show their own population that they can tell the Americans to get lost." This, Everts said, would give the government the legitimacy that it needs to fight the insurgency and would help Iraq more than any NATO soldiers or EU assistance. Reuters, 24 June 2004 Blair faces hard sell to win EU referendum "Until the late 1980s the British press was not gunning against the EU, but since then euroscepticism has taken over," said Heather Grabbe of the Centre for European Reform, who says the concentration of media ownership has hurt the pro-Europe cause. Nezavisimaya Gazeta [Moscow], 23 June 2004 The EU has no single approach to the Russian question The Centre for European Reform is Britain's leading think-tank, studying the EU. Its director Charles Grant recently visited Russia and gave an interview to our newspaper about the obstacles Russia is experiencing during its integration into the European political and economic space. This also covered the new challenges facing the EU. "...Russians have to learn to deal with the Commission," said Grant. "This is hard. Indeed, Moscow prefers to make a direct contact with, say, Gerhard Schröder or Tony Blair, to sort out some problem. But in such a question as Russia's accession to the WTO, the EU's trade commissioner, Pascal Lamy, has more power. As to international policy, member-states have strong responsibilities, but the people in Brussels, such as Javier Solana - responsible for the EU's foreign policy - play some role, though they share responsibilities with the member-states. I would recommend that Russian should talk to everybody. They should talk to the Commission, the Council of Ministers (where Solana sits), and the member-states. The Americans do it this way." Financial Times, 23 June 2004 Mission impossible for Nato? "The question is if the Pentagon really takes Nato seriously. This is why Afghanistan is so important," says Daniel Keohane, defence expert at the London-based Centre for European Reform. His view is that if Nato's European allies cannot deliver in Afghanistan, the Pentagon may conclude it is not worth supporting Nato as a collective military organisation. "Afghanistan is supposed to be the saviour mission for Nato," Mr Keohane says. "The alliance keeps saying it is good at peacekeeping. Even that is now open to question. At Istanbul, Nato will have to prove it can do missions such as Afghanistan. Otherwise, it is difficult to be optimistic about Nato. The Pentagon may continue to opt for coalitions of the willing, which it started to do after September 11." International Herald Tribune, 23 June 2004 EU's inner club grows less exclusive "Unlike the old days, when the French-German relationship really was strong enough to push the EU along, it's no longer important enough to lead," said Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform in London. Agence France Presse, 23 June 2004 The war in Iraq continues to divide NATO Analysts are pessimistic that the Alliance will go far beyond its current brief of providing largely logistics, transport and communications assistance to Poland. "I wouldn't expect a major decision in Istanbul," said Daniel Keohane, of the Centre for European Reform in London, but he added: "I wouldn't rule out the Iraqis asking for help in the next six months." Transitions Online, 21 June 2004 The Causasus: The EU's New Neighbour According to Heather Grabbe of the Centre for European Reform, a UK-based think tank, the Saakashvili administration's rise to power in Tbilisi was seen as a "fantastic opportunity" to extend the New Neighborhood Initiative to the South Caucasus. Experts stress, however, that the EU move in no way indicates that Georgia has been put on a fast track toward membership. Georgia's reform effort still has a long way to go before the issue of EU accession can be seriously discussed. The Financial Times, 21 June 2004 Treaty was the easy part for Blair "This is not just Number 10 spinning," says Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform. "On every one of the major issues on the table, the treaty is as watertight as the British want it to be." However, some analysts say the argument that Mr Blair has given the green light to a two-speed Europe is exaggerated. "The constitution won't change Europe radically," argues Charles Grant. "But what would change Europe would be a British No vote. That would create a club for the avant-garde, a core Europe in which Britain is languishing in the second tier - and possibly heading for the exit." The Straits Times [Singapore], 21 June 2004 EU faces daunting task to sell constitution to wary voters Researcher Heather Grabbe of the London-based Centre for European Reform said: "The problem now is the personality clash between Tony Blair and Jacques Chirac, because both have to look as tough as they can before their own voters." The Observer, 20 June 2004 Europe: hard sell begins Such practical benefits - consumer perks, the threat to inward investment and jobs if Britain is forced out of the European mainstream for refusing to ratify the treaty - must form the basis of the pro-European campaign, says Charles Grant, director of the thinktank the Centre for European Reform. "Like Napoleon said, we are a nation of shopkeepers. If we become detached or leave the EU, we will get less foreign investment, we will be seen as a peripheral economy." USA Today, 20 June 2004 EU adopts constitution, faces substantial hurdles "The chances are very low" that it will pass all the referendums, says Aurore Wanlin, a research fellow at the Center for European Reform in London. If that happens, "that will be the end of the united Europe," she says, referring to the countries committed to the union — including Germany and France — and those that are less committed, including Britain, which refused to adopt the euro currency. Wanlin suggests that gap could widen. Deutsche Welle, 19 June 2004 Examining EU-Russian Relations Katinka Barysch is a critic of EU-Russian relations: She says they won't get much better until the political and economic direction of Russia becomes clearer. "As long as Russia is unsure about whether it is going to the direction of a democracy and a liberal market economy or not, it will be very difficult for the EU to have a much better relationship with the Russians," Barysch, who recently presented her book on EU-Russia relations. Only fifteen years ago, Russia and the European Union were bitter political enemies with radically different economic systems. But the critic Barysch looks at the problems of today: For example, Russians need a visa to enter the EU. And Russia just recently agreed to lift a ban on meat imports from EU countries. Barysch thinks an EU constitution would make it all much easier. "We'd have a foreign minister that would probably bring more cohesion to foreign policy, and we would get rid of the rotating presidency and get rid of this activism and inertia cycle and all the initiatives which get started every six months," said Barysch, who works as chief economist at the Center for European Reform in London and runs the organization's Russia program. She added that because individual EU countries like France and Germany don't always tow the EU line, Russia views Europe as divided. International Herald Tribune, 19 June 2004 EU leaders forge accord on charter "Chirac did him a real favour when he complained so loudly because it allows Blair to look tough at home," said Heather Grabbe, deputy director of the Center for European Reform in London. "Ironically it could be as diluted as you like and there would still be a risk that the British public will vote it down. "In Britain the symbolism matters so much more than the substance," Grabbe said. Washington Post, 19 June 2004 EU leaders frame first constitution The problem now is the personality clash between Tony Blair and Jacques Chirac, because both have to look as tough as they can before their own voters," said Heather Grabbe, deputy director of the London-based Center for European Reform. Blair and Chirac, she said, "seem to be going toe-to-toe." Sydney Morning Herald, 19 June 2004 The stage is set for some motley Euro-bickering "They're a rather motley crew," said Alasdair Murray, senior research fellow at the London-based Centre for European Reform. "The chances that they'll all vote together are slim. There isn't a lot that they all have in common, and seeing as they don't believe in European politics they're likely to run mainly on a national basis." Mr Murray says it is not uncommon for anti-Europe parties to focus on the lurks and perks of the parliament itself, which provide an easy and populist target. "Put simply, the work is really rather unglamorous when it comes down to it; if you want to have any real influence, you've got to be a hard worker on the committees, and none of these parties is going to be able to get on the important committees and influence things from within." The Moscow Times, 18 June 2004 EU party defends Russian speakers The Parliament deals mainly with issues that are important for all of Europe, and according to Katinka Barysh of the Centre for European Reform, deputies cannot lobby for issues of interest only to a single country or community. The Scotsman, 18 June 2004 Chirac attacks Blair as PM stands firm on EU constitution Alasdair Murray, an analyst at the Centre for European Reform, said the issue of the presidency could be shelved. "It's not beyond the wit of man to discuss this at a later date," he said. "The important task is to agree the constitution." The Prague Post, 17 June 2004 Post-accession blues explain low turnout But Heather Grabbe, an enlargement expert at the Centre for European Reform in London, thinks that not showing up at the polls is not the same as being eurosceptical. "Europeans do not really understand the institutions of the EU. It is the fault of the national governments, especially in the new member states, for not explaining why the parliament is important," she said. EurasiaNet, 17 June 2004 EU extends co-operation with Georgia, but expresses caution on accession issue According to Heather Grabbe of the Centre for European Reform, a UK-based think tank, the rise of the Saakashvili administration to power in Tbilisi was seen as a "fantastic opportunity" to extend the New Neighborhood Initiative to the South Caucasus. Experts stress, however, that the EU move in no way indicates that Georgia has been put on a fast track towards membership. Georgia's reform effort still has a long way to go before the issue of EU accession can be seriously discussed. CNN, 17 June 2004 The battle for Europe's top job But in the search for Romano Prodi's successor there's an additional factor. "Iraq, which has been a very divisive issue over the past two years, is going to play a key role," explains analyst Alasdair Murray, from think-tank the Centre for European Reform. "There are some candidates who are unacceptable to the British as a pro-war country. There are some candidates who are totally unacceptable to France." BBC News, 16 June 2004 EU constitution: The endgame? A lot rests on the noted negotiating skills of the Irish Prime Minister Bertie Ahern. Ireland currently holds the EU presidency and will guide the talks. "I think the chances of success are 50-50," said Heather Grabbe of the Centre for European Reform in London. "They have a lot to sort out. It is touch and go." ..."Tony Blair will be even more hawkish", said Heather Grabbe, "He is concerned at how the public will react to the constitution." Cordis News, 16 June 2004 EU foreign ministers give green light to European Defence Agency With a combined defence budget of 160 billion euro and 1.6 million troops, the EU boasts the world's second- largest military force. Yet EU countries themselves spend only 30 billion euro on procurement and ten billion euro on research at national level, according to the UK Centre for European Reform (CER). Pooling defence spending could save European governments five billion euro a year, said Daniel Keohane, security analyst at CER. Voice of America, 16 June 2004 EU leaders brace for crucial summit on Constitution Analyst Alasdair Murray, at London's Centre for European Reform, says this voting rights issue is still the major obstacle to an agreement. "There is still a lot of pressure from Poland and Spain to stick with the Nice Treaty, which gave Poland and Spain sort of extra weight than actually their populations would suggest they need. Poland, in particular, is in a terrible position now. Their ruling party did very poorly in the elections. There's a suggestion it might fall. So it's very difficult to see how it could give." Reuters, 16 June 2004 New EU rule may split Balkan candidates "Bulgaria can come in in 2007. The question is whether Romania comes in as well or whether it will wait for Croatia," said Heather Grabbe, deputy director of the Centre for European Reform. Aljazeerah, 15 June 2004 Election blow rocks EU at crunch time "This does now place a lot of pressure on a number of leaders," said Alasdair Murray of the Centre for European Reform, noting that Britain and Poland in particular faced huge tasks to sell the constitution to their people. "Certainly if they hadn't woke up, then they really need to now,"he added. Deutsche Welle, 15 June 2004 Brussels flummoxed by low eastern voter turnout "When it comes to Eastern Europe, the turnout rates were shockingly low," Katinka Barysch, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform in London, told DW-WORLD. "These countries should be especially enthusiastic about exercising democracy. Economically, they don't stand to gain much from EU membership, since the economic benefits would have come anyway. What they wanted with EU membership was a say, a place at the table in Brussels. Now they've been given that right and they stayed at home." Katinka attributed the low turnout to uncertainty in the new member states about what, exactly, the European Parliament does. As a policy-making institution, it has been around for years, but knowledge of parliament's workings is low throughout Europe - both new and old. And many countries just voted last year in referendums on EU membership and weren't aware the responsibilities of EU membership would come so quickly. "Fatigue is a trend," she said, "simply because expectations were so high. Now, Eastern Europeans are taking a more realistic view of what EU membership means." International Herald Tribune, 15 June 2004 After voters revolt, doubt on EU charter Perhaps the biggest loser of the European election is outside the Union. Turkey is awaiting a decision later this year by European leaders on whether the EU will begin membership negotiations. The sour anti-incumbency mood among voters was interpreted by analysts as a blow to their chances. ''In the face of this kind of apathy, can you really move ahead with grand projects?'' said Heather Grabbe, the director of research at the Centre for European Reform in London. ''Turkey is the next grand project,'' she said. ''But which European leader is going to stick his neck out these days for the sake of the Turks?'' Reuters, 15 June 2004 Blair ready for EU charter deal Blair will be opposed in any referendum campaign, not just by UKIP but the main opposition Conservatives who reject the constitution and outpolled Labour in the European elections. "The British government has hardened its overall stance since Tony Blair promised a referendum on the treaty," said Aurore Wanlin of the Centre for European Reform. Christian Science Monitor, 15 June 2004 EU voters cast protest ballot Every ruling party in Europe, save the recently elected Spanish Socialists and Greek Conservatives, suffered setbacks, some of them dramatic. "Voters suffering from mid-term blues wanted to give their governments a bloody nose without having to face the consequences," says Steven Everts, an analyst with the Centre for European Reform, a think tank in London. At the same time, he adds, the 55 percent abstention rate revealed "a growing indifference and apathy - and in some countries outright hostility - to greater European integration. Supporters of the project have some explaining and reconnecting to do." BBC News, 15 June 2004 Shell-shocked Brussels seeks apathy antidote For Alasdair Murray of the Centre for European Reform, it is also about politicians working harder to sell the European idea. "National leaders pay only lip service to Europe and tend to do very little," he says. "There is a huge problem of disconnect. Hard work is needed and the onus is on MEPs to sell themselves." But in doing so, MEPs need the support of their own parties, who often grab the limelight away from them at the time of elections, he says. Mr Murray also cites the reform of travel expenses as one way of changing the image of MEPs as freeloaders. In this, they also need the help of the media, European politicians argued last night. But on the question of whether the media is to blame for the lack of understanding of what the EU does, Mr Murray says: "A bad workman blames his tools. The media is still very broadly pro-European, except in the UK where the media has its own agenda. Otherwise it is not a problem." The Star [South Africa], 15 June 2004 Vote snub a body blow to the EU Specifically the results of the European Parliament elections, including a surge in anti-EU forces, will ring alarm bells for countries planning to hold referenda on a first-ever constitution that EU leaders hope to finally agree on later this week. "This does now place a lot of pressure on a number of leaders," said Alasdair Murray of the Centre for European Reform, noting that Britain and Poland in particular faced huge tasks to sell the constitution to their people. The Herald, 15 June 2004 Can protest votes make a difference? The mundane nature of parliamentary life also tends to work against those who would be kings. Alasdair Murray, senior researcher with the Centre for European Reform, said: "The daily work of the European Parliament is very unglamorous; it is technical, it is to do with amending legislation and directives. "The track record of UKIP and similar parties is rather poor. It's not what they feel they are there for, they don't like doing it and their attendance records are not good." Bloomberg, 14 June 2004 EU foreign ministers agree to set up new arms purchasing agency With a combined defense budget of 160 billion euros ($193 billion) and 1.6 million troops, the EU boasts the world's second- largest military force. Yet EU countries themselves spend only 30 billion euros on procurement and 10 billion euros on research at the national level, according to the Centre for European Reform in London. Pooling defense spending could save European governments 5 billion euros a year, said Daniel Keohane, security analyst at the Centre for European Reform. The agency, to be set up in the coming months, will have a staff of 25 and an initial budget of 2 million euros. Dow Jones, 14 June 2004 Support for independence from EU grows in UK While other European countries, notably France and Germany, saw protest votes against sitting governments, the Independence Party's strong showing provided an extra twist in the UK. "The UK results show a long-standing strain of Euro-skepticism has coalesced into outright 'withdrawalism' in the U.K. It's now a significant strand of public opinion," says Alasdair Murray, of pro-European think-tank the Center for European Reform. Though Blair has said he personally supports the European constitution, few now think he'll find the constitutional argument winnable. "It will be very hard for the government to win people round on the constitution," says Murray. "In a sense the UKIP's performance is helpful, in that it clearly polarizes the debate, but only if those for the constitution start to make more positive noises. But senior politicians like finance minister Gordon Brown have recently made rather negative comments," Murray says. EurActiv.com, 14 June 2004 Eurosceptic vote down in Denmark, but up in Sweden and UK Voters in the UK cast an anti-establishment vote, not unlike in other Member States, said Katinka Barysch from the Centre for European Reform to EurActiv. Although there is a high level of euroscepticism in the UK the strong performance by the UK Independence Party, which gained 12 seats, is mainly due to the British public's mistrust of both Labour and the Conservatives. However Barysch adds: "The outcome of the elections are not likely to change the current British negotiating position in the IGC, but it will make it very hard for Tony Blair to win a referendum on the EU Constitution." (which may take place anywhere in the second half of 2000 in the second half of 2005 or early 2006). EU business.com, 14 June 2004 Poll blow rocks EU at crunch time Specifically the results of the European Parliament elections, including a surge in anti-EU forces, will ring alarm bells for countries planning to hold referenda on a first-ever constitution which EU leaders hope to finally agree later this week. "This does now place a lot of pressure on a number of leaders," said Alasdair Murray of the Centre for European Reform, noting that Britain and Poland in particular faced huge tasks to sell the constitution to their people. "Certainly if they hadn't woke up, then they really need to now," he added. Newsweek, 12 June 2004 What Could They Be Thinking? France riles neighbor Germany with its efforts to promote 'national champion' companies The talk of economic nationalism may also dampen foreign investment. The growing perception is that "you can't do normal business in France without government interference," says Alasdair Murray of London's Centre for European Reform. Meanwhile Paris and Berlin are pressing to exempt various kinds of state aid from the restrictions of the EU stability pact limiting federal-budget deficits to 3 percent of members' GDP. If they succeed, warns Murray, "that would be dangerous." EurasiaNet, 11 June 2004 Turkey's EU membership drive enters critical phase Steven Everts of the Centre for European Reform, a London-based think tank, told EurasiaNet; "There has been a ground shift in political elite opinion over benefits and costs of Turkish membership in the EU. Political momentum favors taking a decision in December to open negotiations with Turkey." Ultimately, Everts added, the decision on whether to begin accession talks will be a political one, based on several criteria, including Turkey's efforts to fulfil the Copenhagen criteria. Even if a decision is made to move forward on a political level, there is "a great deal of effort to be made to erode hostility towards the Turkish membership amongst the European public opinion," Everts cautioned. Agence France Presse, 11 June 2004 NATO battles to avoid Franco-US split on Iraq NATO officials, inevitably, are keen to play down differences, and above all the risk of a repeat of the crisis which nearly ripped the alliance apart in the run-up to the Iraq war. "I think it is important to recognize the difference in tone" (from last year)," said Daniel Keohane of the Centre for European Reform, adding that both Washington and Paris were keen to avoid a repetition of the crisis. "Both (French President Jacques) Chirac and Bush want to emphasize the positive," he said, adding that Chirac did not rule out a NATO role in Iraq at the G8 meeting, but "his point is to wait and see what the Iraqis ask for." Fundamentally, he said: "I think what the French want is to give a message to Washington that having NATO do things isn't a problem but having the US just come and kind of boss NATO into doing things is the issue." The Times, 11 June 2004 Brussels is bereft of authority after Prodi The Commission's weakness has become far more pronounced in the past four years of Romano Prodi's presidency, argues Charles Grant of the London-based think-tank, the Centre for European Reform. "He has proven unable to co-ordinate his team, unwilling to master the details of the various dossiers, and he has the wrong priorities: he has seldom made a priority of the single market, and focused on foreign policy instead." "He is a decent, honest, intelligent man, but he has disappointed," says Mr Grant, in a view held by many. "It has lead to the paradox that the outgoing Commission had more able people in it - Pascal Lamy [trade], Chris Patten [external relations], Mario Monti [competition] - but its reputation is at an all time low." The Wall Street Journal, 10 June 2004 Hungary is in the soup over Iraq " I think that every member of the coalition in Iraq is reassessing its position, including those of Central and Eastern Europe," said Heather Grabbe, deputy director of the Centre for European Reform. "Safety of their troops are one concern, but another is a lack of a credible plan, and queations of whether the US is simply looking for an expendient way out before the US presidential elections, whatever mess it leaves behind," she adds. Voice of America, 10 June 2004 Britons, Dutch open four days of European elections But Heather Grabbe, at London's Center for European Reform, says national governments like to claim credit for the MEPs' successes. "When things are going well and they do something that is really popular, then the governments do not bother to mention the fact that it was the MEPs that voted on this issue. They claim it as a success for themselves," she said. Ms. Grabbe says that, as the Euro-elections are being held at the same time as local elections in many EU countries, no single Europe-wide issue has dominated the campaign. "Most of the party campaigns that we are seeing at the moment are based on national issues. Many of them have really very little to do with Europe at all," she added. Reuters, 10 June 2004 G8 meeting may bolster Blair's defences Analysts said Blair could offer Bush's apparent commitment to Middle East peace as a fig leaf to rowdy parliamentarians. "He'll spin it as positively as he can," said Steven Everts, a senior researcher on EU foreign policy at the Centre for European Reform. But Everts added that it would take it would take more than a G8 statement to achieve real progress in the Middle East. The Christian Science Monitor, 10 June 2004 'Euro-fatigue' threatens turnout in continental vote "We need to sell Europe better to the people," says Katinka Barysch, an expert at the London-based Centre for European Reform. "National governments use Brussels as a scapegoat. Citizens think there is this opaque bureaucracy at the heart of Europe making decisions. People have to be reminded of the benefits, that they can travel freely, live and work in different countries, and do business easily in a market of 450 million." The Times [Malta], 10 June 2004 Making a wise choice One analyst from the London-based Centre for European Reform argues that one would expect to translate the sluggish growth in some of the large EU states and continuous pockets of high unemployment across the continent into discontent with the sitting governments, to the advantage of some independent parties that seemed to offer quick fixes to the current problems. Agence France Presse, 9 June 2004 NATO would respond to Iraq's request for help: NATO chief NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer said here Tuesday that his organization could not "turn a blind eye" if Iraq's new interim government were to request assistance. "I don't know if or when a sovereign and legitimate Iraqi government might request NATO assistance, but I do know the international community cannot simply afford to let Iraq fail," he said. "I believe that if both the UN and the Iraqi people call NATO for help, then the Atlantic alliance cannot turn a blind eye," he added. "Let's not forget, end of June, it's up to the Iraqis," he said, referring to the date for the scheduled transfer of power from the US-led coalition to Iraq's interim goverment. De Hoop Scheffer was addressing the Centre for European Reform, a London based think-tank, on preparations for the NATO summit scheduled for June 28-29 in Istanbul. CNN.com, 9 June 2004 Economic summit will likely focus on Mideast- Security Council approves Iraq resolution "It is very much a pre-election G8," said Katinka Barysch, an analyst at the Centre for European Reform. "You can see it very clearly, the U.S. trying to highlight topics that make the U.S. look more in a conciliatory mood on the global stage," Barysch said. This year terrorism and its likely impact on world oil prices will see the European leaders lining up with the U.S. in common concern, according to Barysch. "They might not be so reliant on cheap oil as the American economy is but they obviously have a very high stake in the world economy picking up. So they will want to talk about oil," said Barysch. The Scotsman, 9 June 2004 Blair and Howard step up attack on UKIP The Centre for European Reform in London, a think-tank with good access to Downing Street, has predicted "a lot of anti-incumbency votes" as people use the European elections to send a very domestic message of complaint. Bloomberg, 8 June 2004 Czech Communists, Slovakia's Meciar May Win in EU Elections Eastern European voters may use their first European Parliament elections to register discontent with the governments that brought them into the European Union and support for parties that reject membership, opinion polls show. "There could be a lot of anti-incumbency votes,'' said Heather Grabbe, research director at the Centre for European Reform in London, in a telephone interview. "If the elections bring a lot of 'euro-skeptics' into the European Parliament, of course that will have an influence on the EU as a whole.'' CNN.com, 9 June 2004 Big themes missing from EU vote - Apathy surrounds European Parliament election The election also has failed to produce a specific European theme. "Most of the party campaigns that we're seeing at the moment are based on national issues and really have very little to do with Europe at all," says Heather Grabbe of the Centre for European Reform. Reuters, 7 June 2004 Economic woes preoccupy voters before EU polls Domestic economic troubles are particularly in focus in the largest members of the bloc - Germany, France and Italy. "The sluggish growth in some of the large EU states and continuous pockets of high unemployment across the continent are in the background. It's definitely important mood music," said Alasdair Murray, director of the business and social policy unit of the Centre for European Reform, a London-based think-tank. "One would expect that to translate into discontent with the sitting governments, to the advantage of some independent parties that seem to offer quick fixes to the current problems." San Francisco Chronicle, 5 June 2004 As expanding Europe goes to the polls in mega-election, Iraq looms large "There is widespread disillusion," said Heather Grabbe of the Center for European Reform, a London think tank. "Undoubtedly Iraq is playing a role in the campaign." Grabbe said the war is not helping the British prime minister put his nation "at the heart of Europe," as he is fond of saying. International Herald Tribune, 4 June 2004 In Germany, EU parliament elections attract little voter interest "More than in previous elections, this one is a midterm referendum on the government," said Katinka Barysch, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform in London. "The people elected Schröder with a very small margin and they don't like what he's done since then. They will use these elections to give him a bloody nose." Reuters, 2 June 2004 Britain's Blair carries less clout to G-8 summit "Blair has an image problem, not just in Britain because of the issue of trust but also internationally and that does affect his leverage in this kind of fora," said Heather Grabbe, analyst at the Centre for European Reform, a UK-based think-tank. But Iraq has left a nasty blot and it will upstage any initiatives on Africa, debt relief or climate change - all close to Blair's heart - at the G-8 summit, analysts say. "Iraq hangs as a shadow over so many different aspects of Blair's foreign policy," added Grabbe. International Herald Tribune, 1 June 2004 Big issue in EU voting: Who cares? Heather Grabbe, deputy director of the Centre for European Reform in London, said that even though actions of the Parliament had a "major impact" on Europeans, it got little attention from them. "It's actually quite rare to hear about something concrete that the European Parliament has done," Grabbe said. Bloomberg.com, 1 June 2004 EU Newcomers Anger France, Germany With Tax Cuts "Enlargement will force reform of sclerotic European economies such as Germany's,'' said Katinka Barysch, chief economist at the London-based think-tank the Centre for European Reform. "Tax competition encapsulates a wider point - the EU's expansion will make Europe Inc. more competitive.'' Business week, 31 May 2004 Tax Harmony, EU Fracas - Germany and France are raising tempers by pushing for a minimum corporate tax Britain's Brown, for example, has asked his staff to scour the proposed charter to ensure tax harmonization can't be brought into that document through the back door. "How the harmonization push is resolved could affect the future structure and working of the EU," says Katinka Barysch, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform. The Straits Times, Singapore, 30 May 2004 Labour's not quite working for Britons Mr Steven Everts, a senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform, said: "It has always been the case for people to use their vote to vent their frustration of the day." This time, the crisis is the war in Iraq. Many here were against the war in the first place and have become increasingly disappointed with the government as accusations fly about the mishandling of Iraqi prisoners and as the long-drawn occupation seems unending. The Financial Times, 28 May 2004 EU appeals for fairness over Turkish talks Mr Verheugen said: "We cannot have double standards. We cannot have 100 per cent implementation. We do not do that even with our own countries," he said in a speech marking publication of "The Constellations of Europe"* by the London-based Centre for European Reform. European voice, 28 May 2004 Heather grabs top spot in 'talking heads' hit parade You're a journalist trying to explain the vagaries of European integration to a sceptical and even apathetic readership. You need a pithy quote from an expert and you need it fast. Who ya gonna call? Heather Grabbe, of course. Well, there are a few other talking heads you might try, but Grabbe, the deputy director of the Centre for European Reform in London, is the current It-girl of quotable analysts. She consistently offers accessible, but not over-simplistic, insights on a range of EU political questions. How often is she quoted? A search on the Nexis database of major world publications turned up 136 references to Grabbe in the last two years. On the Google News website, I found 52 Grabbe hits in the past month, with quotes everywhere from The New York Times to The Calcutta Telegraph. Sample quote, from a Washington Times piece on constitutional referenda: “The new members had just held referenda on whether they wanted to join the EU, so they knew what they were getting themselves into.” She even enlightens The Sun's readership with this nugget after the UK announced it would put the constitutional question to the people: “Chirac must be cursing Blair.” Euractiv.com, 28 May 2004 Verheugen: no "double standards" for Turkey According to Enlargement Commissioner Günter Verheugen, the EU's scheduled October report on Turkey's readiness to start negotiations would "use the same methodology and benchmarks, the same criteria and same rules" as those applied to the other candidate states. Addressing an event hosted by the London-based Centre for European Reform, Mr Verheugen said that "We must not have higher standards for Turkey, or lower standards". The Prague Post, 27 May 2004 Apathy test - Observers say vote will hang on domestic politics, not on Europe's future The elections, in which the 10 new EU members will participate for the first time, are "a historic moment" that is endangered by apathy and skepticism, said Heather Grabbe, deputy director of the Centre for European Reform, an independent think-tank in London. "If voters are unhappy with what the EU is doing, they should lobby their [EP member], not turn to euroskeptics within Czech politics," she said. The Boston Globe, 22 May 2004 Putin promises to ratify Kyoto treaty- Move paves way for Russia to join world trade group Instead, yesterday's summit took the pragmatic approach that a recent report by the Centre for European Reform said had begun to characterize relations between Moscow and Brussels. ''The EU's main goal is to nudge Russia along the path of economic reform and democratization," said the report. Putin sees the EU, whose members account for half of Russia's foreign trade, ''as a way of strengthening the domestic economy through trade and, to a lesser extent, investment." The Guardian, 21 May 2004 The yob of Europe: Negotiations over the constitution show all that is worst about the EU - and Britain behaves worst of all The EU will fossilise as nothing important is reformed or progressed, with 25 vetos. The union's many deformities will fester, from fraud to the CAP. Meanwhile France and Germany, now joined by Spain under its new government, are already laying plans to become a "hard core", hurrying ahead alone to forge ever closer links. Even though wise observers in the Centre for European Reform note that they are having difficulty turning hard core rhetoric into hard policy, the rest will be left behind. Britain's brilliant diplomacy will have engineered exactly what it always feared - marginalisation by a Franco-German axis. Gateway to Russia, 20 May 2004 EU and Russia eye trade prize to smooth ties Putin ruffled EU sensitivities a year earlier when he offered to arrange a circumcision for a reporter grilling him on Chechnya. Each side still sees relations in its own way, said Katinka Barysch, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform. "The EU's main goal is to nudge Russia along the path of economic reform and democratisation," she said in a new report, "EU and Russia: strategic partners or squabbling neighbours?" Putin, she said, saw the EU "as a way of strengthening the domestic economy through trade and, to a lesser extent, investment". Reuters, 19 May 2004 EU and Russia eye trade prize to smooth ties Each side still sees relations in its own way, said Katinka Barysch, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform. "The EU's main goal is to nudge Russia along the path of economic reform and democratisation," she said in a new report, "EU and Russia: strategic partners or squabbling neighbours?" Putin, she said, saw the EU "as a way of strengthening the domestic economy through trade and, to a lesser extent, investment". International Herald Tribune, 19 May 2004 Constitution for EU hits new set of snags Heather Grabbe, the deputy director at the Center for European Reform in London, said that Straw was trying to depict a hard-line image because it could help win support for the constitution in the referendum being planned by the British government. "This is typical EU politics," Grabbe said. "They've got to look tough to the electorate, and they have got to be able to claim lots of victories to fend off the charges of Euroskeptics that they have signed up to a federalizing agenda for the EU." The Financial Times, 12 May 2004 An enlarged EU fans the fears of Europe's Muslims Katinka Barysch, a researcher at the London-based Centre for European Reform, says people from the new EU states competing with North African immigrants have an advantage because east Europeans are better educated. There are big cultural differences among Europe's Muslims, but they are united in their sense of the discrimination they feel from the non-Muslim population.The Washington Times, 12 May 2004 EU urges referendums to OK draft constitution "The new members had just held referenda on whether they wanted to join the EU, so they knew what they were getting themselves into," said Heather Grabbe, deputy director of the Centre for European Reform. "The most likely 'no' votes will be coming from the old members, particularly Britain, Denmark and the Netherlands." No one can say what will happen if one or more countries vote down the constitution, an act European Commission President Romano Prodi warned would bring "heavy" political consequences. "It's pretty uncharted territory," said Ms. Grabbe. "There is no legal or political precedent for this." Ultimately, much would depend on who and how many said no. Ms. Grabbe said if a small country rejects the constitution, the others might not allow it to hold everyone else up; however, if a large country says no, it would be more difficult. "If Britain were to reject the constitution, it would not be rejecting just a part of it, but the whole thing," she said. "So, either you get a country to adjust to the treaty, or you renegotiate the treaty. But where is the tipping point?" Newsweek, 10 May 2004 "The new accession countries really can't afford to not be competitive," says Heather Grabbe, deputy director of the Centre for European Reform in London. "In a way, they've been relieved of the burden of large subsidies." The Financial Times, 5 May 2004 EU's new members in no hurry to welcome Ankara to the club Heather Grabbe, deputy director of the Centre for European Reform, a UK research group, says: "I think there are quite a few central and east Europeans who would be happy to hide behind Jacques Chirac if he decided to block the start of talks with Turkey." Polish News Bulletin, 4 May 2004 European Economic Summit: Enlarged EU's competitiveness to benefit from new members' optimism, dynamism, and drive for reform Heather Grabbe, director at the UK-based Centre for European Reform, also criticised the "old" EU for closing itself to young and educated labour from the new member states. "Old people live in old houses and hold outdated views. They represent the real danger for Europe," said Grabbe. Warsaw Business Journal, 4 May 2004 Celebrating a reunited Europe Another area of concern is the recent suggestion that as much as five percent of the country's population could emigrate to the richer western European countries over the next 15 years. While the figure does not imply a 'swamping' of western Europe by economic migrants (so commonly cited as a threat in many countries), it could mean that the new members might suffer from a brain drain on a scale that would hamper growth, says Katinka Barysch, chief economist at the Center for European Reform, a London-based think-tank that conducted the study. "If Polish engineers come to work in London as taxi drivers, that will improve productivity in the UK, but it could lead to skills shortages in the poorer Central European countries," she explained. The danger is that such a brain drain could prove wasteful to the EU as a whole, as it would erode one of the main advantages that the new member states enjoy over at least some of the older members, namely, a relatively well-skilled and educated workforce. EU observer.com, 3 May 2004 EU faces post-enlargement test Heather Grabbe from the Centre for European Reform argues that the new member states will join 'coalitions of the willing' according to what suits them. In a report, "The Constellations of Europe", Ms Grabbe says they will join the UK, Ireland and the Netherlands on economic issues and that they fear a Franco-German hegemony in Europe more than American power in the world. Cox News Service, 3 May 2004 EU admittance gives workers hope "I think they've been quite dramatically overblown," said Heather Grabbe, deputy director of the London-based Centre for European Reform. "The people who are likely to move are the young, highly educated workers, which most West European economies need," Grabbe said. The Sunday Times, 2 May 2004 Europe cheers a brave new dawn In broad terms this should hold good, though experts such as Heather Grabbe of the Centre for European Reform foresee a more fluid future for the EU. The new states do not form a bloc: they have different interests to pursue. Nor is it clear what they will perceive as the best way to achieve those goals. It may be through an EU made more powerful by “ever closer union” or through the freedom of a looser arrangement. The Washington Post, 2 May 2004 New EU members look to emulate Irish - Experts warn path to success could be harder for other countries to follow If there's one country that most of the new countries think of emulating, it's Ireland," said Charles Grant of the Centre for European Reform, a research organization based in London. "Ireland is a poor country dominated by a big neighbour, and all of the new countries except Poland are small countries dominated by big neighbours. [Ireland] was very poor when it joined. It had high unemployment."EU Business.com, 2 May2004 Photo diplomacy gives 25-nation EU sign of trouble to come For Heather Grabbe of the Centre for European Reform in London, the EU is now likely to fragment into "coalitions of the willing" that cut across the old and new divide. The new members are unlikely to vote as an "eastern bloc", she said in a new report called "The Constellations of Europe", but will share some of the free-market ideology espoused by Britain. "They are strongly multilateralist, having suffered greatly from superpower domination," Grabbe added. "They will pull the EU's centre of gravity westwards towards the Atlantic alliance, but they will also drag European foreign policy eastwards towards their troublesome neighbours." The Age [Australia], 1 May 2004 Expanding the state of the union Dr Heather Grabbe, from the London-based Centre for European Reform, said the EU had squibbed the chance to start its next phase on a positive note by making the new entrants "feel like second-class citizens". "People are beginning to realise that the gold coins are not going to rain from heaven from the first of May and there's still a lot of pain associated with joining the EU and generally being in transition, so these governments are the stick for people's grievances about the economy and their disappointments about EU accession," she says. "It would have cost the EU so little to be generous. They could have got such a huge PR bonus out of all of this by welcoming them with open arms as opposed to welcoming them with the door half open." The Guardian, 1 May 2004 The day the great glacier suddenly shifted Not everyone agrees that everything will automatically be fine for the enlarged EU. Severe difficulties may lie ahead in reconciling the mostly poor newcomers with rich and disgruntled veterans. Finalising the constitution and settling the next budget round could both be bruising experiences. "The EU will change much more than either the old or new members expect or have prepared for," said Heather Grabbe of the Centre for European Reform, a leading London think-tank. The Wall Street Journal, 30 April 2004 EU's growing clout prompts Russia to shift its priorities It used to be that Russian leaders worried mainly about their neighbours joining NATO, the Western military alliance....Heather Grabbe, deputy director of the Centre for European Reform in London, said the change of approach was a good sign, but also cautioned that Moscow would continue to "divide and rule" when necessary. "If they can't get what they want from Brussels, then they'll go to France or Germany or Italy who will offer them whatever they want," she said. "Only they won't be able to deliver." Miami Herald, 30 April 2004 8 former communist countries among EU's new members "The fact pf the matter is that these ten new countries that are coming in ... will not tolerate a policy that is against the United States," said Katinka Barysch of the Centre for European Reform. "In terms of structural reforms, privitisation and liberlaisation, (the new members) are often more advanced than the EU's more sclerotic economies, such as Germany and Italy", says a report by the Centre for European Reform's deputy director, Heather Grabbe. The Economist, 29 April 2004 A club in need of a new vision As a new report from the Centre for European Reform, a think-tank, puts it, the new countries will be in different constellations, sometimes pushing liberal change, sometimes opposing it. There is a risk, too, that EU membership could tilt them towards more regulation. But their general direction is in favour of low taxes, smaller welfare systems and more competition than in many of the existing member states. The Telegraph [Calcutta], 29 April 2004 EU goes east to grow big The EU will change much more than either the old or new members expect or have prepared for,” forecast Heather Grabbe of the London-based Centre for European Reform in an incisive new report analysing 'The Constellations of Europe'. That could trigger a backlash, both among grumpy citizens of the old EU fearing for their jobs, living standards and benefits, and among east Europeans disenchanted at the absence of an instant “feel-good factor”. Institutional reforms in a first EU constitution due to be concluded next month will be too feeble to cope with the “big bang” expansion, and “a period of perpetual revolution.…may well continue for the next decade”, Grabbe argued. The Economist, 29 April 2004 Policy in the balance - How will enlargement change the balance of power on the EU's biggest issues? However, Heather Grabbe of the Centre for European Reform, a think-tank, argues in a recent paper 'The constellations of Europe' that regardless of what the old and new members want ideologically, enlargement will mean practical challenges that will drive further integration by necessity. For example, securing the EU's new border with rougher bits of eastern Europe will require more co-operation in justice and home affairs.Bloomberg news, 29 April 2004 EU's fragmented defence market thwarts bid to bolster military Pooling defense spending could save European governments 5 billion euro a year, said Daniel Keohane, security analyst at the Centre for European Reform. He based that figure, he said, on a formula devised by Keith Hartley, professor at the University of York, U.K., which showed that EU governments would save from 10 per cent to 20 per cent in defense spending if they bought supplies on a single market. At a time when economies in the 12 countries sharing the euro are showing virtually no growth - 0.6 per cent for 2003, according to the Paris-based Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development - the chances of an overall increase in defense spending in Europe are slim, Keohane said. "What is really important now is not to keep hammering the governments to spend any more, but to get them to spend better,'' he said. The Economist, 29 April 2004 Ever-expanding Union? There are worries that a European Union of 25 member countries will prove unmanageable. But the queue to join continues growing. Could the Union one day expand to take in the whole of continental Europe and beyond? If all of southern Europe can apply, why not all of eastern Europe? Maybe one day but, as Heather Grabbe of the Centre for European Reform puts it, “Belarus is too authoritarian, Moldova too poor, Ukraine too large and Russia too scary for the EU to contemplate offering membership any time soon.” The Financial Times, 28 April 2004 Asia-Pacific and Europe: A barrage of fiscal and industrial troubles beleaguered Berlusconi to join battle on all fronts The Berlusconi government was elected in 2001 on a platform that promised to reinvigorate the economy with tax cuts, structural reforms and an entrepreneurial dynamism inspired by the talents of its billionaire premier. But last month the Centre for European Reform, a London-based research institute, published a report that said Italy had made less progress on reform than any of the other 14 EU member states. "Italy is the villain of this year's scorecard," it said. "The Berlusconi government regularly talks of the need for radical economic reform, but has made little real progress."Italy's economic performance is deteriorating while, to an outside world at least, its government pursues an idiosyncratic agenda."The Christian Science Monitor, 28 April 2004 The lands that opted out Yet now, with the EU expanding to take in 10 new countries and become the world's third-largest trading entity behind China and India, the risks of getting left behind are becoming more palpable, analysts say. "They are shooting themselves in the foot," says Katinka Barysch, an expert on EU enlargement with the Centre for European Reform. Agence France Press, 28 April 2004 France's EU grief Heather Grabbe, deputy director of the London-based Centre for European Reform noted that, during an EU summit in Nice in 2000, Chirac lobbied for the incoming members to have less voting weight than the current 15 states.Chirac lobbied for new members to have less votes than the 15 other states. "French officials with their haughty attitude towards the new member states have created a great deal of mistrust," she said. "These things have not been forgotten." United Press International, 28 April 2004 Analysis: Europeans edgy about expansion The myth about the EU's eastern expansion breaking the bank is also not borne out by the facts. Brussels will transfer just $12 billion to the 10 new states in their first three years in the bloc. "That is a miniscule amount of money for reuniting Europe," says Heather Grabbe, an analyst at the Centre for European Reform think-tank, who argues: "For the EU, enlargement is a bargain." The Financial Times, 27 April 2004 The shock of the new But although most of the accession countries are profoundly pro-American because of their recent communist history, some observers believe they will also be strong advocates of a coherent European foreign policy. "They are strongly multilateralist, having suffered greatly from superpower domination," says Heather Grabbe of the Centre for European Reform in 'The Constellations of Europe', a new analysis of the policy outlook of the new member states. "They will pull the EU's centre of gravity westwards towards the Atlantic alliance, but they will also drag European foreign policy eastwards towards their troublesome neighbours," she says. But Ms Grabbe argues that eastern European voters retain a preference for strong social spending in areas that have worsened since the end of communism in 1989, such as healthcare and welfare. "In this respect they are more like Germany than the US," she says. The Guardian, 26 April 2004 Inside Europe Interested UK punters are advised, generally, to use a filter to take out Europhobe - and for that matter Europhile - bias. Too many of Brussels' elite of professional experts have lost touch with the citizens whose "disconnection" from Euro-reality they rightly bemoan. Try the Centre for European Reform, by far the best of all EU thinktanks in London. Its analysis of the constitution and its latest publication about a union of 25 members are models of clarity and wisdom. The Wall Street Journal, 26 April 2004 Cyprus vote offers Turkey silver lining "The Greek Cypriots have all the cards. That makes EU policy makers very keen to reward the Turkish Cypriots in some way to encourage them to say 'yes' again" in a future referendum, sais Heather Grabbe, deputy director fo the Centre for European Reform, a london based think-tank on EU affairs. The Guardian, 26 April 2004 There's a long, long paper trail a'winding Heather Grabbe, of the Centre for European Reform, predicts shifting alliances on different issues. What is certain is that geography and history will make this enlargement unlike any other. Many of the new members still relish the restoration of national freedoms, and warn that Brussels must not become the new Moscow. "The new members will have little time to learn the basics before they have to start fighting their corner," warns Ms Grabbe. EU Business.com, 26 April 2004 France seeks to preserve influence in bigger EU Heather Grabbe, deputy director of the London-based Centre for European Reform, noted that during an EU summit in Nice in 2000 Chirac lobbied for the incoming members to have less voting weight than the current 15 states. "French officials with their haughty attitude towards the new member states, have created a great deal of mistrust," she said. "These things have not been forgotten." Grabbe said that, in any case, the idea of Europe's bigger countries making decisions from a high table "just smacks too much of the past," when central and eastern Europe was carved up according to the wishes of the powers at the time. The close Franco-German cooperation in many EU areas has so far been seen as a mechanism for the two countries to protect their interests, especially when it was used to break the rules underpinning the euro with impunity, she said. Deutsche Welle, 24 April 2004 The eve of EU enlargement "It's certainly going to exacerbate how the EU tries to manage things," Heather Grabbe, the deputy director at the Centre for European Reform in London, told DW-WORLD. Having followed EU expansion for the better part of a decade, Grabbe believes adding members to the table at Brussels will force members to push for further reform of EU decision-making. "There won't be institutional gridlock - in the end it will muddle through." She said she expected a number of issues to arise after the new members had settled in, which could then be tackled by the EU. "Hopefully any shortcomings should provoke more reform," Grabbe said. International Herald Tribune, 23 April 2004 Are Britain and the euro now unthinkable? Blair's "agenda has moved backwards," said Heather Grabbe, deputy director of the Center for European Reform, a private research institute in London. When Blair came to power in 1997, she said, he assumed that once he persuaded Britons of the benefits of the European project in general, "he could move on to the euro." But the decision to call a vote on the projected constitution, made under intense political pressure, shows "how bad things had got in terms of British public opinion on Europe as a whole," Grabbe said. Financial Times, 22 April 2004 EU novices hope to roar like Irish 'Celtic tigers' rather than star in Greek tragedy "Greece was actually using EU funds to prevent economic reform, by supporting failing industries, rather than to promote it," says Heather Grabbe, of the Centre for European Reform. Ms Grabbe argues that EU membership alone is not enough for a country to succeed: it has to be accompanied by fundamental reform. The Sun, 22 April 2004 Blair: I will order 2nd poll Tony Blair last night threatened to make Britain vote, vote and vote AGAIN until we agree to an EU superstate. Mr Blair's about-face put pressure on France's leader Jacques Chirac to follow suit with a poll. Heather Grabbe, of the London-based Centre for European Reform, said: “Chirac must be cursing Blair.” Reuters, 21 April 2004 EU vote may sink constitution Prime Minister Tony Blair's decision to hold a referendum on an EU constitution strengthens his hand in negotiations, but could sink the charter if other countries follow his lead, analysts say. "I think that would probably kill it," said Heather Grabbe, of the Centre for European Reforms. Blair's apparent yielding to opposition demands and public opinion - surveys show Britons are highly wary of closer integration with the European Union - could lead to irresistible calls for referendums in other member states. To enter into force, the constitution must be ratified by all 25 members of the new enlarged EU that comes into being on May 1. Grabbe saw two risks in the wake of Blair's decision that could torpedo the constitution. These were a rejection of the charter by Britain and another major country like France, or a rejection by Britain and smaller states like Ireland and Denmark, which must hold referendums. If it was rejected by one state the charter would in theory be dead, but there would probably be efforts to keep it alive. The Guardian, 21 April 2004 Blair u-turn puts both sides into reverse ... He argues, as does as Heather Grabbe, the deputy director from the pro-Europe Centre for European Reform, that enlargement, is the new factor in the equation. The implications for asylum and migration is "the red hot issue". In the pro camp, Ms Grabbe agrees that enlargement, once seen as a good across the British political spectrum, now holds dangers for Labour. "It only takes a couple of Daily Express stories about Roma families to blow these issues up." Reuters, 21 April 2004 Chirac on the spot over calls for EU referendum With many French voters unnerved about the EU's future direction, such a referendum could produce a "No" vote that would hold up the constitution and mar any hopes Chirac has of a third term, analysts said on Wednesday. "Chirac must be cursing Blair," said Heather Grabbe, deputy director of the London-based Centre for European Reform (CER) think-tank. "This creates moral pressure on him to do the same. But a referendum would be dangerous for Chirac because it would come before the 2007 presidential election. If the French said 'No' it could seriously harm his stature," she said. The Wall Street Journal, 21 April 2004 UK Referendum ups the anti for EU Poland and Hungary, both due to join the EU on May 1, have resisted a referendum on the constitution for fear that the vote would become " a cost-free way for people to express their unhappiness with unpopular governments there," said Heather Grabbe , deputy director of the Centre for European Reform, a London based think-tank. But any bandwagon could push them into referendums, with unpredictable results, she added. The Guardian, 21 April 2004 Back-foot battle As a new report by Heather Grabbe for the Centre for European Reform makes clear, these new members will redress some of the imbalances of the old: they will be Atlanticist on defence, hostile to the dominance of the Franco-German axis, supporters of deregulation, opponents of tax harmonisation and critics of the EU budget. The constitution, partly drafted to embrace their concerns, offers the forces of reform a rare opportunity. EU Business.com, 20 April 2004 British constitution U-turn rings alarm bells in Europe Some argue that even a British 'no' would not necessarily derail the process: they point to the Denmark's rejection of the Maastricht Treaty in 1992, and the Irish rebuff to the Nice Treaty in 2001. But others see no comparison. "If the constitution gets killed by a large European member state we would have go back to the drawing board," added Katinka Barysch of the Centre for European Reform. The New York Times, 19 April 2004 Blair expected to allow vote on a European Constitution In a reversal that surprised political allies and rivals, Prime Minister Tony Blair is expected to announce Tuesday that he will submit any European Union constitution that emerges this year to the British electorate in a referendum. "He's playing a very defensive game with this constitution," said Heather Grabbe, the deputy director of the Centre for European Reform. "The government has done very little to sell this document in Britain and it needs to use the next 18 months to really sell it and it is not clear that Blair has a clear strategy for doing that." "It is also possible, Ms. Grabbe said, that Mr. Blair, in setting a distant date for a referendum, was counting on the constitutional question to first falter in any of the other elections called across Europe. United Press International, 19 April 2004 Spain's leader wastes no time in office "We need to see what kind of leader Zapatero will prove to be," said Heather Grabbe, deputy director at the Centre for European Reform in London, echoing the views of several other observers. "It's not clear right now. "In the rest of Europe, there's kind of questioning of whether Zapatero is experienced enough, whether he can lead his party," she added. "These next few months will be very important in establishing his credentials in foreign policy, but also with regards to economic policy." "Zapatero needs to do two things," added Grabbe, of the CER. "He needs to rebuild relations with the U.S. - and that's obviously going to be very difficult -and he needs to articulate a clear strategy of how Spain is going to deal with the Islamic world." Associated Press, 19 April 2004 Europeans aren't ready to share everything Europeans tend to think that their governments have an obligation to care for the weak, and they pay high taxes to finance generous health, welfare and pension systems. "That's different from the American conception where there's much more stress on individual effort," said Heather Grabbe of the Centre for European Reform in London.The Independent, 17 April 2004 BUSH-BLAIR SUMMIT: Fine words, but what do they really mean? "The key issue was Israel and Palestine, which threatens to be much more disruptive to transatlantic relations than Iraq. Blair was keen to stress that nothing has been agreed which precludes final-status negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians. I thought the Prime Minister looked less self-confident than usual." The New York Times, 16 April 2004 New unity on contracts seen in NATO "It seems to be a genuine multinational procurement decision, and that is quite a significant step for cooperation in this area," said Steven Everts, a military expert at the Centre for European Reform, a research group in London. "There is an acceleration of the desire to cooperate more closely within the E.U. and across the Atlantic.'' In addition, recent sluggishness in the global economy has depleted national coffers, leaving less room for governments to bolster military budgets. "Pooling is the way to go,'' Mr. Everts of the Centre for European Reform said. "It's good news for taxpayers and also good news for political co-operation that common sense has won." The Economist, 15 April 2004 A derailment coming - Greek-Cypriots will say "no" to a UN peace proposal and therefore march alone into the European Union Charles Grant of the Centre for European Reform, a think-tank, argues that the Greek-Cypriots will see a collapse in their “soft power”—their ability to win friends and assemble coalitions—if they are seen to abuse the privilege of EU membership. The Guardian, 15 April 2004 One size fits all - Some very different economies will be rubbing shoulders in the European Union after its eastward expansion As Heather Grabbe, deputy director of the Centre for European Reform, a pro-European thinktank, wrote in a briefing note: "The accession deal struck at Copenhagen turned out to be such a bargain for the EU that parliamentarians were hard pressed to argue against enlargement because of the costs." Poland succeeded in persuading the EU to transfer money from regional aid to cash, which meant it would have access to a lump sum paid into national finances with few strings attached. "This move of €1bn has greatly improved Poland's chances of getting all the money made available to it by the EU," Ms Grabbe wrote. "The outcome of Copenhagen was probably as good as the candidates could have hoped for," wrote Ms Grabbe. "The EU member states became progressively less generous as growth in the eurozone economies slowed and the stability and growth pact was constraining budgets. "The member states were feeling much less generous than they would have been if enlargement had taken place during the economic upswing of the 1990s." EU Business.com, 15 April 2004 Enlarged EU is no guarantee of new allies for Britain, analysts say "There will be few permanent alliances or power-blocs in the enlarged EU," says analyst Heather Grabbe, from the London-based Centre for European Reform think-tank, in a recent study examining how enlargement will transform the EU. "Even though most of the new members are small" - with the exception of Poland -"they could tip the balance in favour of one or other coalition of members on any given issue", she says. For Daniel Keohane, also from the Centre for European Reform, the big winner will be Germany because of its economic importance to the eastern Europeans. "The expectation that these countries will be natural allies to the UK when they join the EU - some of that is wishful thinking," he says. "New members want a strong transatlantic alliance, but on most foreign policy issues they go with the Europeans not the Americans," says Grabbe. "They will pull the EU's centre of gravity westwards towards the Atlantic alliance, but they will also pull European foreign policy eastwards towards their troublesome neighbours." The Seattle Times, 14 April 2004 New EU nations face many economic, cultural disparities The average per capita GDP — gross domestic product — in the newcomer countries is only about 40 percent of the EU's current members. In the bloc now, unemployment averages about 8 percent. Among the ex-communist newcomers, hobbled by obsolete and inefficient industries, the jobless rate is around 15 percent, said Katinka Barysch, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform, a London-based think tank. "In countries such as Hungary, Poland and Slovakia, only around half of all people of working age have a job," she said. The Washington Post, 11 April 2004 Most EU nations to require permits After May 1, East Europeans can come for three months to Germany and look for jobs. But if they find one and want to stay legally, they would have to apply for a permit and their prospective employer would have to show that there is no qualified candidate from any of the 15 original EU countries. Swedish officials argued that without limits, anyone could arrive from Eastern Europe and qualify for the broad range of benefits provided by the country's extensive welfare state. Denmark, whose government has been critical of immigration, also opted for restrictions, as did the Netherlands. "It's all about politics, reassuring the local populations that these people won't come here and take their jobs away," said Heather Grabbe, research director at the Centre for European Reform in London. "It's not about economics." The Christian Science Monitor, 8 April 2004 'I love you, I love you not' - As France and Britain mark 100 years of 'Entente Cordiale,' public sentiment remains wary "The two capitals differ fundamentally over how to deal with American power," says Steven Everts, an analyst at the Centre for European Reform, a think-tank in London. "Do you stay loyal in public, like Tony Blair, or do you state quite categorically when you disagree with Washington, like Jacques Chirac?" One hundred years ago, France and England drew together in the face of a threat from Germany, mustering the political will to overcome their differences. Today, they are working together with Berlin to try to lead an enlarged European Union, but the same political question hangs over them, says Mr. Everts. "What matters is not their political differences, but their willingness to make things work," he argues. "Can they come to enough substantive agreements to make unity worthwhile?" Radio Free Europe, 7 April 2004 Freedom House report highlights countries with democratic deficits "I think the key question is what happens to U.S. policy - for how long the U.S. is going to go on supporting authoritarian regimes in Central Asia while trying to spread democracy in the Middle East? It doesn't really make sense, and obviously the U.S. agenda has a huge impact on the role of the international organizations," Grabbe said. Grabbe said it's an important moment for international donors to consider the conditions they attach to their financing. But she also said there was a persistent lack of consensus within the international community on how to deal with repressive regimes. EU Business.com, 7 April 2004 EU plays down political turmoil in newcomer states Heather Grabbe, of the London-based Centre for European Reform, said the recent turmoil in central Europe "is all part of the normal process of maturing of democracies." "The main thing that unite all of these countries is the fact that they are going into a second phase of post-communist political transition in which people are very fed up with all of the hardships of the past 15 years and all the sacrifices they have made," she said. "They would like to see some of the benefits. So there are quite a lot of politicians who are picking up protest votes." The Boston Globe, 7 April 2004 BBC says 'toxic cloud' plot failed - Islamic group allegedly sought deadly chemical Daniel Keohane, a defense analyst at the Centre for European Reform in London, says Europe is clearly the current focus of Islamic terrorist groups. And Europe's vulnerability to attack has been highlighted as a result. Such vulnerability includes, according to Keohane: Europe's proximity to "a number of countries where Al Qaeda operates," from North Africa to the Middle East. The failure of European countries to "share intelligence at the EU level." And the fact that EU citizens can now move passport-free among other EU countries, while security forces and courts have no jurisdiction beyond the borders of their particular country. In the immediate aftermath of the Madrid bombings, EU interior and justice ministers met and appointed top counterterrorism officials to help coordinate efforts. The Times, 6 April 2004 EU fears stormy front arriving from the East Heather Grabbe, deputy director of the Centre for European Reform, said: "In the first few years after accession, it is going to be a rocky ride, and a lot more acrimonious." International Herald Tribune, 6 April 2004 Terrorists shift focus to Europe, experts say "Europe is now clearly in the spotlight of terrorism," said Daniel Keohane, a security and defense expert at the Center for European Reform in London who says it is highly probable that Al Qaeda was behind the Madrid bombing. "It is the greatest terrorist threat the Continent has ever faced." While the United States remains the prime target of militant Islamist groups, Europe's relatively greater vulnerability has made it the focus of attacks, Keohane said. Its disparate security and intelligence services have fought a variety of largely individual terrorist threats for decades, from the Irish Republican Army in Britain to the Red Army Brigades in Italy and Basque terrorists in Spain. But Keohane said they were not prepared for global terrorism as America is two and a half years after the Sept. 11 attacks. Experts say the real challenge for European governments is to join forces. The only way to defeat global terrorist networks of the Al Qaeda kind is to improve infiltration of Islamic militant networks and to join forces on intelligence across Europe, Keohane said. Business week, 6 April 2004 Europe is playing with fire - An upsurge in protectionist rhetoric sends just the wrong message to investors But just about everywhere you look in Europe, the protectionist rhetoric is rising. Keeping national control over key companies and industries is seen as a way to make sure jobs don't evaporate. "The message increasingly is: 'We believe in market forces, but only up to a point,"' says Katinka Barysch, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform, a London think-tank. International Herald Tribune, 6 April 2004 'Populists' rise in former East bloc With governments of the 15 existing members also facing electoral losses and pressure from more EU-skeptical parties, the mood in an enlarged EU of 25 could well be tense. "This will create a rocky ride for the EU in the first years after enlargement," said Heather Grabbe at the Center for European Reform in London. Mlada Fronte Dnes [Czech], 5 April 2004 Heather Grabbe of the Centre for European Reform says "Slovakia could have trouble in the EU [if Vladimir Meciar becomes president], because Meciar has a bad reputation in Brussels." The EU previously censured his undemocratic activities formally when he was prime minister from 1994-98. "People in the EU have not forgotten how he behaved towards minorities." Financial Times, 3 April 2004 Discord subverts Europe's lofty foreign policy aims Other countries say sanctions would damage non-governmental organisations and the opposition, not the regimes themselves. "Then why does the EU bother to have such a clause?" asks Steven Everts, security analyst at London's Centre for European Reform. "Either you exercise conditionality or you do not. Otherwise these clauses become meaningless. European Voice, 1-14 April 2004 EU's 'ones to watch' What do German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer, former Dutch MEP Lousewies van der Laan, Finnish official Alexander Stubb and high flying diplomat Nikolaus Meyer-Landrut have in common? On the face of it, not a lot. However, the Centre for European Reform would beg to differ - it has all of the above on its list of 'Europe's future shapers' over the next decade. According to the Centre, Fischer is a potential EU foreign minister, while van der Laan is a likely future government minister in her native Netherlands. Others afforded the think-tank's accolade include Environment Commissioner Margot Wallstroöm who, we're informed, is a good bet as a future Swedish prime minister, and David Milliband, previously head of the policy unit at number 10 Downing Street and "frequently mentioned as a future UK prime minister". International Herald Tribune, 2 April 2004 Tunisian organised bombings, Spain says "There is no question that the Madrid bombings have focused the mind of political leaders," said Daniel Keohane, security expert at the Center for European Reform in London. "Fighting terrorism has become a political priority and we're beginning to see that today." In the future, the challenge for European security services will be to focus more on preventing attacks, rather than dismantling groups after the fact, Keohane said. "The key is intelligence, and that's where Europe has been weakest," said Keohane. "The U.S. has gone through this process after Sept. 11. Europe is only just waking up to it." The Wall Street Journal, 2 April 2004 Turkey will support Cyprus reunification EU diplomats and analysts say Turkey's efforts on behalf of a Cyprus deal will help its own case with the EU, but don't necessarily mean the country is a shoo-in. "Getting it [Cyprus] out of the way completely would give a much stronger sense of optimism to the whole project," said Heather Grabbe, deputy director at the Centre for European Reform, an EU think-tank in London. Politiken, 2 April 2004 NATO's nye lande leverer varen Daniel Keohane fra det britiske Centre for European Reform advarer om, at NATO's troværdighed er truet, hvis ikke de europæiske allierede leverer de ressourcer, de har lovet: "Ellers vil det altid være amerikanerne, der bestemmer, og så vil alliancen aldrig blive anset for andet end USA's rengøringsassistent". The Guardian, 31 March 2004 The people must decide "The EU has a legitimacy problem," says Steven Everts of the Centre for European Reform. "People feel disconnected from it." The only remedy is "an open expression of popular support". Everts is realistic enough to know that many of his fellow campaigners for a referendum have very different motives to his: they want a no vote to derail the EU. They hope Britons would do to the constitution what the Irish did to the Nice treaty: blow a big raspberry at the entire European project. But the moment can be postponed no longer. Pro-Europeans have at last to make their case - and fight to win. Deutsche Welle, 28 March 2004 NATO enters new era with eastwars expansion The flags of Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Rumania, Slovakia and Slovenia will all be hoisted up alongside the existing 19 members, bringing the total size of the transatlantic military alliance to 26 states and pushing the NATO map eastward across most of the former Soviet satellite states and linking Western Europe all the way to Turkey. "This is very symbolic that the Cold War is long over in Europe," said Daniel Keohane, a defense expert at the Centre for European Reform in London. "And we should remember that the EU is also taking on 10 new members this year, and that most of those countries that are joining NATO are also joining the EU. It's a sign that the final brick has been removed from the Berlin Wall." "Though the new members won't bring a lot in terms of equipment and prowess, they do have the capacity to bring niche expertise that could prove valuable to NATO. Of the new countries," Keohane said. The Baltic states, for example, are highly regarded for their minesweeping and the Rumania is renowned for its mountain troops. For the new member states, membership is expected to bring credibility as well as new responsibilities. Most will have to undertake serious reform measures to bring their militaries in line with NATO standards. "They'll have to spend their defense money in more efficient ways and in most cases they'll have to get rid of conscription armies and have more professional armies," explained Keohane. EU Business.com, 28 March 2004 EU's constitution hopes soar - but toughest leg awaits "There's a sense that in the face of grave international risks, the EU looks vulnerable and really has to get its act together," said Katinka Barysch, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform in London. "In this new scenario, to fight over the size of the commission and voting rights really looks extraordinarily petty to European citizens," she told AFP. "More and more Poles are coming round to the view that the government actually damaged the national interest by losing friends in Europe," Barysch said. Gulf Daily News, 26 March 2004 Leaders aim to push EU economic drive at forum The EU is not catching up with the US. Rather, it is falling further behind," the London-based Centre for European Reform said in a report this month. USA Today, 26 March 2004 EU leaders pick counter-terrorism czar at summit "You can sense it (the fear). People are worried, worried about an attack on the Tube (London's subway system)," said Daniel Keohane, a research fellow at the Centre for European Reform. "Terrorism is the top item at the summit. ... The question is, what can they do? Can they give up enough sovereignty for the EU to become a true terrorism actor?" International Herald Tribune, 26 March 2004 EU adopts ambitious anti-terror measures "We're traveling at the speed of light and this can only be considered impressive," said Steven Everts, a specialist on European defense and foreign policy at the Centre for European Reform in London. "But it's also true that nobody shares at a multilateral level anything that is remotely sensitive." Everts said the EU should focus on why many of the existing institutions are underutilized. The leaders sought to increase the use of Europol, a sort of nascent European FBI that was established in 1998 to fight terrorism and other cross-border crime, which has about 500 employees. Financial Times, 25 March 2004 Europe stumbles on its push for supremacy Even the most enthusiastic proponents of the Lisbon agenda can only describe the EU's performance as mediocre," writes Alasdair Murray of the Centre for European Reform, a think-tank, in a study on the Lisbon process published this month. "Four years into the Lisbon reform agenda, it has become clear that the EU stands little chance of achieving its overall goal of becoming 'the world's most competitive and dynamic knowledge-based economy by 2010'." Financial Times, 25 March 2004 EU changes tack in attempt to foster Mideast reforms The EU is beginning to move away from its traditional approach to development assistance and large inter-regional projects to focusing more on human rights, and on supporting civil society, the rule of law and non-governmental organisations. "This is long overdue," says Steven Everts, Middle East expert at the London-based Centre for European Reform. "For far too long, the EU has been dealing with governments in the region and not engaging the private sector and helping to build civil society." "This is about political will," says Mr Everts. "It is almost impossible for member states to reach unanimity over this issue. You would never get France agreeing to impose sanctions on Algeria or Germany on Israel. The EU has principles or it does not. It should be much tougher with conditionality." Business world [Ireland], 25 March 2004 Terror ro overshadow economy at summit "Four years after Lisbon it is clear that we are going to miss our mid-term targets. This should be a strong enough message to serve as a wake-up call to governments," Prodi said. And the Centre for European Reform said in a report this month, "The Lisbon reform process... has not lived up to expectations. The EU is not catching up with the US. Rather, it is falling further behind."The Scotsman, 25 March 2004 EU summit urges to clear barriers to growth The Lisbon "scorecard", published this month by the Centre for European Reform, suggests that key reform targets may seem out of reach and that EU governments are at a loss about how to kick-start the Lisbon agenda. Do the Lisbon goals have any chance of becoming reality? Associated Press, 23 March 2004 Mosques in Athens under microscope European Union security officials, at an emergency meeting in Brussels, on Friday, said they are considering closer cross-border co-operation to fight terrorism. "The EU has very limited resources for that kind of thing at the moment," said Daniel Keohane, a security and defence analyst at the Centre for European Reform in London. "Al-Qaida does not respect borders." EU Business.com, 22 March 2004 Enlargement could help Blair out of the EU woods The Spanish Socialists' election victory "shifts balance away from Atlantic Europe towards a more Franco-German core Europe", observed Steven Everts of the Centre for European Reform, a London think tank that specialises in EU issues. That was consistent with the history of Europe being "a pattern of constantly shifting alliances", he said. It might also give Blair the chance to try to sway US President George W. Bush - who faces his own bid for re-election later this year - towards the benefits of multilateralism, Everts said. Reuters, 22 March 2004 Is Italy really the European Union's economic dunce? "Italy is the villain of this year's scorecard," was the conclusion of an annual report into the Lisbon process by London-based think-tank Centre for European Reform (CER). The report slams the record of Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, who swept to power on a reformist ticket in 2001 with the biggest parliamentary majority since World War Two. "The Berlusconi government regularly talks of the need for radical economic reform, but has made little real progress. Italy's economic performance is deteriorating while, to an outside world at least, its government pursues an idiosyncratic agenda," said the report which compares the record of EU states. EU Business.com, 21 March 2004 New Europe to give reform lessons to old "The '90s was the time when the world taught this region how to reform; the 2000s is perhaps the time when this region can tell the world how to reform their economy," said Heather Grabbe, deputy director of the London-based Centre for European Reform. Neuer Zuercher Zeitung [Switzerland], 21 March 2004 Geheimdienste bleiben die nationalen Kronjuwelen Der EU-Beauftragte für die Aussen- und Sicherheitspolitik, Javier Solana, hatte vor dem Treffen in Brüssel in einem internen Papier die Regierungen scharf dafür kritisiert, nach den Anschlägen in den USA vom 11. September 2001 vereinbarte Massnahmen nur zögerlich verwirklicht zu haben. Fünf Mitgliedstaaten haben den Europäischen Haftbefehl noch nicht in nationales Recht umgesetzt. Elf Staaten tun sich schwer, Massnahmen in Kraft zu setzen, die es ermöglichen sollen, grenzüberschreitend Kommunikation zwischen terroristischen Gruppen zu überwachen. Auf dem Papier habe die EU eine Reihe von Instrumenten, um gegen den Terrorismus vorzugehen, zeigt sich Daniel Keohane vom britischen Centre for European Reform überzeugt. Im Alltag scheitert die Zusammenarbeit jedoch an nationalen Eitelkeiten und unterschiedlichen Traditionen. Terroristische Gruppen seien heute weltweit vernetzt, sagt Keohane. Die Zellen nutzen moderne Kommunikationsmittel wie Mobiltelefone oder das Internet und profitieren vom grenzenlosen Europa. Geheimdienste, Polizei- und Streitkräfte seien auf der anderen Seite noch immer besser für die Herausforderungen des Kalten Krieges als für die neue Konfrontation gerüstet. The Boston Globe, 21 March 2004 Europe goes its way in anti-terror fight Steven Everts, a senior research fellow at the Center for European Reform, a London-based think tank, said that Aznar's support of the war was a deviation of foreign policy for Spain and that Zapatero would bring the nation back to its more natural alignment with the rest of Europe. Everts pointed out that the coming introduction of 10 new countries into the European Union on May 1 would "bring a lot of countries that at a big strategic level want to maintain close relations to Washington.'' But those countries, including Poland, also want to fit in with the EU and "don't want to have to choose between their mother and their father,'' as Everts put it. EU Business.com, 21 March 2004 Terrorism casts new shadow over EU's stalled economic overhaul "The Lisbon reform process... has not lived up to expectations. The EU is not catching up with the US. Rather, it is falling further behind," the London-based Centre for European Reform said in a report this month. "As the Lisbon agenda approaches its half-term review, key reform targets, such as creating jobs or improving Europe's science and technology performance, look out of reach," it said. The Washington Post, 19 March 2004 EU taking up terrorism issues - Security officials try to forge 'Europe-wide response' after attacks Intelligence-sharing, when it occurs, is often conducted outside the EU framework between countries with shared interests. France and Spain, for example, cooperate closely out of common concern over the Basque separatist group ETA, which operates along their border. But under the current system, "if Britain and Belgium are sharing intelligence on a certain individual, they may not know that Portugal's got a file on him," said Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, a research organisation in London. Financial Times, 18 March 2004 Euro express still in sidings as issue takes a back seat The bad, if expected, news in the Budget for the euro-enthusiasts was that Gordon Brown did not think the economy had changed enough to warrant another euro assessment so soon after ruling out entry last June. Alasdair Murray, a director at the Centre for European Reform, said the document was "the most forth-right Gordon Brown has been in stating his view that the eurozone should import his fiscal rules". The Irish Examiner, 18 March 2004 EU states must join forces in the fight against terror The key to tackling al-Qaida-style terrorism all agree is intelligence co-operation, but academic experts like Steven Everts of the London-based Centre for European Reform believes there is little hope of doing this through setting up a European CIA one of the proposals floated by a number of countries. Steven Everts believes the best hope is for countries to agree a series of mini steps, such as implanting the European Arrest Warrant. Associated Press, 18 March 2004 Fears over social, economic costs sour mood as EU readies to absorb former communist neighbours The European Union's drive to add countries from the old Soviet bloc has been painted as a moral imperative, the return to the Western fold of lands unfairly cut off from democracy and prosperity by the vagaries of history. "It was never conceived of as an economic project," says Heather Grabbe, deputy director of the London-based Centre for European Reform. "It's really about reuniting the European continent." "If they weren't joining then they'd really be undercutting the others in the EU," Grabbe says. "There's sort of an irony there." EU business.com, 18 March 2004 Europe grapples for response to Madrid blasts Analysts say Friday's meeting risks highlighting tensions among EU member states even if all of them agree on the need both to implement measures agreed after 9/11 and to come up with new initiatives. "All those things are going on but they're not all rowing in the same direction," said Daniel Keohane, a security and defence analyst at the Centre for European Reform in London. Channel News Asia.com, 18 March 2004 Year on from Iraq war, US woos 'old Europe' A year on from the war in Iraq, "old Europe" and the United States are slowly patching up their differences -- but for many it is a marriage of convenience that could yet result in a new divorce. "Only very slowly have the wounds that were created by the Iraq split healed," said Daniel Keohane, a security analyst at the Centre for European Reform in London. "The French and the Germans haven't had to change their position on the war. The Americans have had to change their position on the peace," he said. "Rumsfeld's 'old and new' paradigm doesn't work as it did, and that's reinforced by the Spanish election," Keohane said. Financial Times, 17 March 2004 Brown 'not ready for UK entry to eurozone' The Centre for European Reform concluded last week that Europe stood little chance of achieving its overall Lisbon agenda goal of becoming the world's most competitive and knowledge-based economy. The think-tank said instead of catching up with the US, Europe has fallen behind. CNS news.com, 16 March 2004 Spanish vote studied in Europe Daniel Keohane, a research fellow with the Centre for European Reform, a London-based think tank, said that while he believes the Spanish elections were in fact a "referendum" on Iraq, it is hard to say that the same thing could happen in Britain. "For one thing," said Keohane, "this election came within a year of the Iraq war and the British elections won't be for another year. But of course it will also depend on the parliamentary enquiry into the use of evidence for weapons of mass destruction." In Italy, Keohane said, "(Prime Minister Silvio) Berlusconi is in a difficult position at the moment but not just because of Iraq. It has as much to do with his inability to reform Italy's economy. Many on the right, not only on the left, in Italy have become very disillusioned with Berlusconi." "On the other hand I'm sure the Italian left will want to make hay out of that and point to the Spanish example," continued Keohane. "So if and when there is an election in the next six months in Italy, the Spanish result will certainly help the Italian left." Responding to the question of whether al Qaeda might influence the future of European politics, Keohane said this is unlikely, partly because al Qaeda's own political aims are unclear. When it comes to al Qaeda, it's not absolutely clear what one is dealing with politically. Is this group just a nihilistic organization or do they have political aims ranging from removing U.S. forces from Saudi Arabia to recreating the Caliphate?" "The thing when you're a terrorist, terrorists only have to be lucky once, but security services have to be lucky all the time," said Keohane. Furthermore, Keohane pointed out that "the overall record of European security services in tracking al Qaeda has not been bad and many other attacks have been averted and many al Qaeda operatives have been arrested. This is really the first major al Qaeda attack we've experienced in Europe." The Straits Times, 16 March 2004 'Old' Europe's worker worries 'The simplest way for governments to begin to tackle the looming demographic crisis is to get more adults into work,' said British Conservative parliamentarian David Willetts, who published a paper on the ageing issue called 'Old Europe' last year. Making people work until later in their lives is an 'easy, quick, and cheap fix' to tackle the consequences of ageing, said analyst Katinka Barysch of the Centre for European Reform in London. Dow Jones Newswire, 16 March 2004 EU leaders risk losing focus on fiscal reforms "A greater focus on security is legitimate, in the sense that security of their people has to be the number one concern of governments," said Alasdair Murray, director of the business and social policy unit of the London-based Centre for European Reform. "But prosperity is close behind, and governments should have the capacity to do both." "The danger generally is that fiscal reforms would slip back down the agenda because security is seen as more pressing," Murray said. "This could take the pressure off those countries to reduce spending." The Christian Science Monitor, 16 March 2004 Socialist Spain a blow to US The election results, punishing Mr. Aznar for his perceived manipulation of the bombing investigation, and rewarding Mr. Zapatero's outspoken opposition to US policy, "will strengthen those forces in Europe that have questioned US strategy toward the greater Middle East," says Steven Everts, an analyst at the Centre for European Reform in London. "It will shift the balance." That shifting balance of power, says Everts, "means the question of Western troops in Iraq will have to be rethought, and the conditions attached to any NATO role will be looked at more carefully. The United Nations will have to be much more front and center. The elections were only in Spain, but they signify a change of mood" across Europe. The Calcutta Telegraph, 15 March 2004 Shift in balance of power "The 'new Europe' was always based on shaky foundations and that has been exposed now," said foreign policy analyst Steven Everts of the Centre for European Reform. Everts forecast Italy would be more cautious in extending its military engagement in Iraq as a result and noted the Dutch parliament was also reticent about its country's commitment. The Straits Times, 15 March 2004 Europe's pension time bomb 'There's some fear that Europe, the old continent, will be a continent populated by old people waiting to die,' said Mr Alasdair Murray of the Centre for European Reform (CER) in London. 'It's an exaggeration, but it raises some important issues.' One good thing, said Mr Alasdair Murray, director of the economics and social policy unit at the Centre for European Reform (CER) in London, is that the debate about the consequences of Europe's ageing society is largely focused on pension reforms. 'There is no immediate danger of a country collapsing because it can't pay pensions. By 2010, most countries will have a sustainable system in place,' Mr Murray told The Straits Times. 'It's perfectly feasible to foresee a system where people can still retire but not live in poverty, though it's a huge challenge.' Financial Times, 10 March 2004 Iran remains defiant over its right to enrich uranium "The agreement was full of holes," said Steven Everts, senior research fellow of the Centre for European Reform. "Europe's idea is to offer Iran a guaranteed supply of fuel, in that a European consortium could supply rods and take back spent fuel, but this was not in the October agreement." EurActiv.com, 10 March 2004 CER: 'Super Commissioner' must not be substitute for national reforms In its annual 'Lisbon scorecard', the Centre for European Reform (CER) confirms that in 2003, progress has been "mediocre". Furthermore, it points to the existing obstacles for the EU to reaching key goals such as creating jobs, improving the research performance and getting more Europeans to start a business. While the CER supports calls for a 'Lisbon' Commissioner, as was suggested by the UK, France and Germany, it emphasises that this cannot be a substitute for the Member States' political will to get on with the reform process. Idnes, 10 March 2004 Unie dál zaostává za USA Výkon unie je tak hodný známky tri, kterou si vysloužila od londýnského Centra pro evropskou reformu. Prestižní instituce jí vystavila vysvedcení podle série kritérií, která si unie sama odsouhlasila na summitu v Lisabonu v roce 2000. Unie svuj pokrok bude hodnotit za 14 dní na bruselském summitu. Corriere della Sera, 10 March 2004 Il caso Italiano: annunci e realtà Il governo Berlusconi parla ogni giorno della necessità di riforme radicali, ma le condizioni economiche dell'Italia stanno via via deteriorandosi, almeno così appare ad un osservatore esterno». È quasi impietoso, nel giorno in cui il presidente del Consiglio proclama ottimismo e annuncia meno tasse per tutti, leggere il rapporto sulle economie europee del Centre for European Reform ( www.cer.org.uk ), settanta pagine che raccolgono non le opinioni degli estensori, un centro di studi di Londra, ma i dati di Ocse e Commissione europea, le due istituzioni incaricate di tenere sotto controllo il cosiddetto «processo di Lisbona», grazie al quale l'Europa punta a diventare, entro il 2010, la regione più competitiva e dinamica al mondo. Dai risultati dello studio emerge che, su parametri quali la ricerca e sviluppo e l'ambiente, i servizi finanziari e gli assetti regolamentari che non impongano troppi costi alle imprese, l'Italia risulta tra gli ultimi in 6 casi su 13, in arretramento rispetto ad un analogo esercizio condotto un anno fa. E nella valutazione complessiva finisce addirittura in coda, mentre in testa figurano Irlanda e Svezia, due Paesi con governi di segno politico opposto. Irish Times, 9 March 2004 Republic gets high rating on Lisbon reforms The Republic was yesterday described as a "hero" for the way it has implemented the economic goals set down at the Lisbon EU summit in 2000. In a report from the Centre for European Reform (CER), the Republic won praise for its "rapid productivity growth in recent years" and its ability to create new jobs. However, the level of poverty in Irish society was also highlighted in the report. The CER yesterday published what it calls the "Lisbon scorecards", which investigated the speed of reform in individual EU member states. It is the fourth such publication from the CER. At the Lisbon summit in the spring of 2000, EU leaders signed up to an ambitious economic reform programme designed to close the economic gap with the US. The report assessed the progress made in achieving these reforms. Written by former business journalist, Mr Alasdair Murray, the report was highly complimentary of efforts by the Republic to improve its economic performance. The report said: "Ireland, in particular, has made remarkable progress in raising both its employment and productivity levels over recent years: it now has the highest productivity level (measured as output per hour worked) in the EU." The report said the Republic offered a role model to accession states. "Its education and employment policies offer a good example to other member states, particularly to accession countries that are keen to catch up with west European income levels." But the Republic's economy did have some shortcomings said the report. "Ireland cannot yet match the Nordic countries in terms of its innovation record, while its rising wealth is not shared evenly across the country." Based on the Irish performance the country was given a "hero" award, along with Sweden. Overall, the report was mildly critical of progress across the EU in relation to Lisbon, describing it as "mediocre", with France and Germany categorised as "laggards" for their slow approach in reforming pensions and labour market. Italy was the subject of the most robust criticism in the report. "Italy is classified as this year's villain. Its employment levels are low, its record of innovation and entrepreneurship is poor and the Berlusconi government still shies away from much-needed reform." Speaking at the launch of the report in Dublin, the Taoiseach said member states were taking their Lisbon responsibilities "very seriously". "I am delighted to see that we have been rated overall as one of this year's positive stories or heroes for our ongoing commitment to the Lisbon agenda." He said he noted the positive score in relation to encouraging new small and medium-sized enterprises. Irish Independent, 9 March 2004 Poverty risk high despite Tiger years The benefits of economic growth have failed to permeate through Irish society and one infive of the population is at risk of falling into poverty, a new report from the Centre for European Reform (CER) claims. The study, sponsored by accountants KPMG, says that among the EU member states Ireland has the highest portion of the population at risk of poverty - 21pc, which is higherthan either Greece or Portugal. "This suggests that the economic gains of recent years have not spread throughout thepopulation," the author states. The figure compares to an estimated 15pc of the EUpopulation which the EC estimates is at risk of poverty. Titled 'Lisbon Scorecard IV', the report is an assessment of the state of economic reformin the expanding EU and tracks the implementation of the economic reform programmeadopted by EU leaders at the Lisbon summit in the spring of 2000. The Lisbon reform process was aimed at making the EU the "most competitive and dynamicknowledge-based economy in the world by 2010". The report claims that more than one in five of the Irish population is at risk of poverty and categorises Ireland as a 'villain' when it comes to social reform. While the report says the best way to deal with poverty is to create better employment opportunities, it notes that there appears to be no clear correlation between high levels ofemployment and low poverty rates. The assessment comes despite the establishment of the National Pensions ReserveFund by Finance Minister Charlie McCreevy. The fund is designed to ease the burden of future State pensions on the Exchequerfinances, which was one of the aims listed in the Lisbon accord. But it also said EU governments should "significantly" reduce the number of people at risk from poverty and social exclusion, an area where Ireland falls down, according to the CER report. Author Alasdair Murray says governments must do more than reform pension systems if they are to cope with the problems of ageing societies. "They will also have to encourage more private savings for retirement to reduce the future burden on public finances," he says. The Wall Street Journal, 9 March 2004 EU is not on track to outperform US economy The fourth annual report on the Lisbon process by London think-tank the Centre for European Reform showed Ireland and Sweden with top marks from the 15 EU nations, while Italy stood out as a major underachiever. But the report stressed that despite uneven progress, there was some optimism from the decline in long-term unemployment, the spread of new technology, opening of energy markets and a step-up in overhauls in Germany and France. "The true test of the Lisbon agenda's success should be whether the EU in 2010 will be able to sustain higher levels of employment and growth than a decade earlier," said Alasdair Murray, director of the CER's business and social policy unit and author of the report. The report advised governments to focus on growth and employment, improve national reporting on Lisbon goals and resist changes in targets despite the EU's enlargement to 25 nations on May 1st. The CER also endorsed the recent call by Britain, Germany and France for an EU commissioner to co-ordinate the legislative push behing the Lisbon goals. The Guardian, 9 March 2004 Turning our backs According to Heather Grabbe from the Centre for European Reform, the maximum amount allocated to help the new accession countries from EU coffers over the period 2000-2006 is no more than a thousandth of the EU's total wealth. Poor UK regions are likely to continue to receive EU help for years to come. The amount of money being earmarked to help the poorest countries in central and eastern Europe is a tiny fraction of what the EU has given to new member states in the past, such as Portugal, Greece and Spain. By comparison, this enlargement of the EU is being done on the cheap. Cordis news.com, 9 March 2004 Lisbon Scorecard calls for focus and continuity in Lisbon process 'The EU should resist the temptation to add extra clutter to an already demanding economic reform agenda,' states the fourth Lisbon Scorecard, published by the Centre for European Reform. The scorecard is released in the run-up to the 2004 spring European Council, as well as the beginning of a mid-term review of the Lisbon process, which set the target of making Europe the world's most competitive economy by 2010 back in 2000. The report calls for prioritisation, saying that 'The EU pays lip service to focus and clarity, but in practice the Lisbon agenda has increased in scope every year since its inception.' The author of the scorecard, Alasdair Murray, also acknowledges the temptation to modify some of the Lisbon targets, which could be justified by the need to take account of the new Member States and make the goals realistic for all. However, such a move should be resisted, even for those targets which are unlikely to be met, for two reasons, according to Mr Murray: to maintain clear and consistent targets, and to avoid giving the impression that the EU lacks ambition with regard to economic reform. La Nazione, 8 March 2004 Competitività, innovazione, occupazione Male l'Europa, Italia fanalino di coda E' quanto emerge dal rapporto annuale del Cer (Centre for European Reform), un prestigioso think-tank proeuropeo basato a Londra, secondo cui "il governo di Berlusconi è ancora molto distante dalle riforme necessarie" per rilanciare l'economia. Il rapporto, che reca la firma di Alasdair Murray, direttore della sezione economica del Cer, è stato presentato oggi in un convegno a Dublino, a cui ha partecipato anche il premier irlandese Bertie Ahern, presidente di turno del Consiglio europeo. Secondo una sintesi del documento, sottolinea che l'Europa sta andando incontro a un "collo di bottiglia nel processo delle riforme" e che "i progressi realizzati l'anno scorso sono stati mediocri". Libération, 8 March 2004 L'UE "doit mieux faire" pour atteindre ses objectifs L'Union européenne "doit mieux faire", car on voit mal comment elle pourrait atteindre son ambitieux objectif de devenir d'ici 2010 la puissance économique la plus compétititive et la plus dynamique du monde, d'après une étude publiée lundi par le Centre for European Reform (CER). Cet institut de recherche basé à Londres la crédite de la note "C" (assez bien) dans la réalisation des objectifs qu'elle a elle-même définis dans son "agenda de Lisbonne", lors du sommet européen organisé en 2000 dans la capitale portugaise. Wprost, 8 March 2004 Dwója z bezrobocia Opublikowany w Dublinie raport londynskiego Centrum na rzecz Reformy Europejskiej (CER), w obecnosci premiera przewodniczacej Unii Irlandii Bertiego Aherna przedstawil Alasdair Murray. Ocenil on wdrazanie tzw. strategii lizbonskiej, która miala uczynic z Europy najbardziej konkurencyjna i dynamiczna gospodarke swiata w 2010 roku. Wlochy uznano za "czarny charakter" niemal we wszystkich kategoriach strategii lizbonskiej. Ten niechlubny tytul przypadl tez w wielu kategoriach Grecji i Portugalii. Polsce przyznano go w polityce zatrudnienia i w liberalizacji uslug finansowych. Corriere della Sera, 8 March 2004 Ricerca e occupazione: Italia ultima nell'Ue Una secca bocciatura dell'Italia, considerata la maglia nera nell'Unione europea in tema di competitività, ricerca e occupazione, è arrivata dal londinese Centre For European Reform (CER). La ricerca presentata lunedì dal primo ministro irlandese Bertie Ahern, presidente di turno dell'Ue. traccia un bilancio della strategia di Lisbona a quattro anni dallo storico accordo che si proponeva di fare dell'Ue "la più competitiva e dinamica economia del mondo entro il 2010". La Gazzetta del Mezzogiorno, 8 March 2004 Economica: I'UE galoppa, L'Italia striscia Il documento - realizzato dal "Centre for European Reform" di Londra - rappresenta il quarto di una serie di studi comparativi sugli obiettivi di Lisbona e fa il punto sulla crescita, sull'occupazione e sulla coesione sociale europea. L'Italia - afferma Alasdair Murray, autore dello studio, nella prefazione - è il "cattivo" del quadro comparativo di quest'anno. Secondo l'autore "il governo Berlusconi parla regolarmente del bisogno di riforme economiche, ma ha fatto ben pochi progressi reali. Le prestazioni economiche italiane stanno rapidamente peggiorando". Reuters, 8 March 2004 EU reform scorecard poor, renewed push urged CER The European Union "must do better" in reforming its economy as it looks set to fail in its ambitious goal of being the world's most competitive and dynamic economy by 2010, a scorecard of its progress showed on Monday. A detailed independent assessment of where the bloc stands on its self-imposed reform targets, dubbed the "Lisbon Agenda" from its launch at the Lisbon EU summit of 2000, gave it a school grade of "C" - just one year from a mid-term review. The fourth annual report on the process by London-based think-tank Centre for European Reform said a disappointing macroeconomic performance over the past two years meant it was now almost certain the EU would miss its overarching goal of leapfrogging the United States in six years time. A breakdown of individual countries' results in 2003 showed Ireland and Sweden with top marks from the 15 EU nations while Italy stood out as a major underachiever. But the CER report stressed that despite uneven progress, there was some optimism from the decline in long-term unemployed, the spread of new technology, opening of energy markets and a step-up in reforms in Germany and France. EU Business.com, 8 March 2004 EU ministers mull candidates for IMF chief "The Lisbon reform process... has not lived up to expectations. The EU is not catching up with the US. Rather, it is falling further behind," the London-based Centre for European Reform said in a new report Monday. "As the Lisbon agenda approaches its half-term review, key reform targets, such as creating jobs or improving Europe's science and technology performance, look out of reach." EU observer.com, 8 March 2004 'Mediocre' EU scores low grade for economic reform An influential report due to be unveiled later today (Monday 8 March) by Irish Taoiseach Bertie Ahern has delivered a very downbeat assessment of progress towards the EU's economic goals. The "Lisbon Scorecard", compiled by the London-based Centre for European Reform (CER) assesses progress made by the EU towards the so-called Lisbon objectives, which is the ambitious goal to make the EU the "most competitive, knowledge-based economy in the World by 2010". Overall, the report is highly critical of EU leaders for failing to implement the necessary economic reforms that would enable these goals to be met. The survey concludes, "even the most enthusiastic proponent of the Lisbon agenda can only describe the EU's performance over the last 12 months as mediocre ... After a second consecutive year of disappointing economic growth, it is already apparent that the EU will miss some of its key targets". Furthermore, the CER believes, "worryingly, EU governments look bereft of new ideas to reinvigorate the reform agenda just as the EU begins a mid-term review of the Lisbon process." The Times, 8 March 2004 ECB is just a scapegoat for Europe's failing revival Europe's progress, or lack of it, in pursuit of its Lisbon goals is comprehensively assessed in an annual paper from the independent Centre for European Reform (CER). This year's Lisbon Scorecard, by Alasdair Murray, is unveiled in Dublin today and delivers a far from resounding verdict. “Even the most enthusiastic proponents of the Lisbon agenda can only describe the EU's performance over the last 12 months as mediocre,” the CER concludes. The paper points to a number of areas where there has been progress. Germany has forced through Agenda 2010, while France has pushed ahead with a painful overhaul of pensions provision. Brussels has made substantial headway with the Financial Services Action Plan to create a single market for the financial industries. And the Nordic states of Sweden, Finland, and Denmark stand out for achievements in “almost every aspect” of the Lisbon agenda. None of that, though, is enough to rescue the EU from being awarded a dismal “C” grade by the CER for its Lisbon efforts as a whole. Crucially, the think-tank's analysis makes clear that the least progress has been made by the largest of the member states, and in the most critical areas of policy, such as market liberalisation, labour reforms, and easing the burden of regulation. Worse still, the paper concludes that, “worryingly, EU Governments look bereft of new ideas to reinvigorate the reform agenda just as the EU begins a mid-term review of the Lisbon process”. When finance ministers and EU leaders gather next year to reflect on Lisbon, they will inevitably find it hard not to reach the same verdict as many independent observers: that their vaunted aim of becoming the world's most dynamic economy by the end of this decade is now pie in the sky. But rather than abandon their objective, they should redouble their efforts to achieve it. This is a race worth running, even if it cannot be won. The CER's analysis makes a number of practical proposals for the pursuit of the Lisbon goals. It argues that the EU should resist the urge to move the goalposts by tinkering with the programme's individual targets. Instead, the leaders should continue to “aim high”. It also calls for member states to produce an annual report on their progress, and suggests that a single EU commissioner should be put in charge of overseeing the effort. Most importantly, it advocates an intense focus on the measures most likely to deliver increased growth and employment. The Prague Post, 4 March 2004 Critics balk at choice of EU envoy - Some say Pavel Telicka lacks political mandate "I personally think he will be a good choice, but within the Czech Republic there are doubts about his political base," said Heather Grabbe, an EU-enlargement expert at the London-based Centre for European Reform. "Telicka's lack of political base at home could be problematic," said Grabbe. As an EU commissioer, Telicka would effectively be a spokesman for the country, but the controversy surrounding Telicka would not be an international issue. "It's more about Czech politics than the EU," she said. The Straits Times, 3 March 2004 Ageing Europe forces to open door to immigrants "Why would people want to come if they can get more pay and more favourable terms from other countries like the US that do not put restrictions on them?" asked Alasdair Murray, director of the economics and social policy unit at the Centre for European Reform in London. Currently, he said, most European countries want to uphold "as tough a barrier as possible". Mr Murray said the debate about the consequences of the ageing society was still largely focused on pension systems. There is little acknowledgement in Europe's political circles of the significant role permanent immigration can play in mitigating the effects of the wider demographic problem. "At the political level, there is not a mature debate. There is now a crass debate about eastern European workers and they are part of Europe!" he said of the fears that millions from the EU's 10 new member-states would flock to the west after their countries join the club in May. "Nobody has a clear vision of what they want to achieve," said Mr Murray. But he said the immigration debate had begun and would eventually move up the agenda because it is "inevitable". International Herald Tribune, 3 March 2004 Asia keeps New Europe on edge "China will loom large after expansion," said Heather Grabbe, deputy director of the Centre for European Reform, a research group in London. "It could become the new demon, rather than say, Romania," she added, alluding to the fact that wages are still lower, and overall costs cheaper, in the Europe that is being left out of this round of expansion. Still, Grabbe draws a distinction between European and American attitudes toward China. The rise of China has become a hot issue in the US partly because Americans are in the midst of an election campaign and an economic recovery that has so far failed to generate a lot of jobs. China remains more of an abstract threat in Western Europe, which has enjoyed little growth, in employment or anything else, and still worries more, Grabbe said, "about the giant sucking sound from Eastern Europe." The Herald, 1 March 2004 Yes, we have no bananas "We have just done a comparative survey of the European economies and we consistently marked Italy the lowest in terms of growth, employment rates and levels of innovation, says Alasdair Murray, of the Centre for European Reform. "This is an economy that in the 80s was bigger than the UK's, but now there is a sense that they have just gone backwards. Germany and France perform worse in some categories, but even they are being more pro-active and they don't have the range of problems Italy has." Chief among these is Europe's fastest-ageing population, a timebomb that will require far more drastic reform of the pension system than Berlusconi has so far been prepared to undertake. While giving Berlusconi more credit than some, the CER sees some truth in the clichéd view of Italy as "the banana republic of Europe", an opaque business culture dominated by family ties and ruled by a mouthy businessman-politician absorbed with legislating in the interests of his own empire. Corriere della Sera, 27 February 2004 E Galieleo monstra che la sfida a Roma è anche economica Perché, fa capire Charles Grant, quella delle tecnologie di spazio e difesa è anche una questione politica. Direttore del Centre for European Reform di Londra, Grant partecipa in questi giorni al "dialogo" della sinistre di Francia, Germania e Gran Bretaga a Londra. "Nella difesa e in politica estera i tre paesi possono mettere a disposizione dell'Europa la loro leadership, ma devono farlo caon trasparenza," dice ogi Grant. Ed è una novità solo apparente: tre anni fa, dopo il fallimento del vertice di Nizza che mostrò l'ingovernabilità dell'Unione a 25, Grant espresse in un rapporto di 90 pagine lo stesso concetto. Con liu firmarono Gilles Andréani, oggi capo della pianificazione politica al ministero degli Esteri di Parigi, e Christoph Bertram, direttore di Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (il più influente laboratoio di politica estera in Germania). Un anno fa poi la dichiarazione comune nello stesso senso dell'industria dei Tre: Eads, Thales e Bae insime. El'Itlaia? "Nel sruppo di testa può entrare, visto il suo peso nella difesa - sostiene Grant - ma ha bisogno di una guida più chiara e affidabile di quella dell'attuale governo". The Christian Science Monitor, 26 February 2004 To EU newcomers: thin welcome The accession countries are grumbling about their treatment, while many experts say that fears of a migration torrent are overblown. "States have very little to fear from Central and Eastern Europeans coming to seek employment," says Heather Grabbe an expert in enlargement at the Centre for European Reform, a London-based think-tank. "Numbers are likely to be small, most people will be young, educated; motivated and [will] speak foreign languages and bring skills to fill gaps in the labour market," she says. The Prague Post, 26 February 2004 Brussels envoy makes rapid exit - Telicka tapped after Kuzvart's about-face on EU appointment Heather Grabbe, an EU enlargement expert at the London-based Centre for European Reform, said the Kuzvart situation put added pressure on the government to choose a quality person with EU expertise. She said Telicka fits the bill. "He's politically savvy without being a candidate for any party," Grabbe said. "It's very hard to think of anybody better," she said. International Herald Tribune, 23 February 2004 Softly, Europe walks in parallel with US "France and Germany have worked out that they cannot lead Europe's foreign and defense policy without British input," Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, a London research group said. "And Tony Blair has worked out that he cannot fulfill British objectives in Europe without working with France and Germany." Scotland on Sunday, 22 February 2004 Blair's euro vision As the Centre for European Reform a think-tank reported last week, "the smalls... fear the EU could be changing from a Community based on law to one where 'might makes right'." Financial Times, 22 February 2004 Vitorino catching London's attention In an article in Monday's Financial Times, Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, says Mr Vitorino "combines intelligence with charm." "EU leaders neef to get this appointment right," he writes. "Unless they find someone who can give the Brussels bureaucracy a more human face, restore staff morale and work constructively with national governments, they will condemn the Commission to further decline." Insight on the news, 19 February 2004 Europe lukewarm about Bush Mideast plan "The Americans have to realise that this is the cancer of the region," says Steven Everts, a Middle East analyst at the Centre for European Reform think-tank in London. "As long as the perception exists that America has double standards - that it indulges the Israelis while being tough on Muslim regimes - they're not going to get very far." The Wall Street Journal, 19 February 2004 Three-Nation summit stirs up controversy in EU "Germany and France are seen as having a negative effect on integration," said Katinka Barysch of the Centre for European Reform, a London think-tank. "They have formed mostly a defensive alliance against the things they are scared of, such as globalization and enlargemnet, rather than a progressive alliance." Ms Barysch was skeptical of the summit's proposals to create a new vice president of the European Commission, a position in charge of EU economic measures designed to improve Europe's competitiveness. "For the Brits, this would be a position that stands up for the free market," Ms Barysch said. "But for the French and Germans, it's likely someone who defends old industrial policies that make sure state-run companies survive." The Times, 18 February 2004 European dinner will test appetite for a constitution Some attempts to broker deals have looked at whether the thresholds of double majority voting should be changed. Should it be 65 per cent, even a bit higher, to tempt those now opposed? The attraction to Poland and Spain - in theory - is that a higher threshold would more easily allow them to block moves by the bigger countries. But the interest appears to be draining out of this option. Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, the London-based think-tank, says: "I think it is now most likely that they will keep the existing numbers. If you start changing them, other countries will get upset." CNN.com, 18 February 2004 Suspicion dogs 'Big Three' summit The leaders of Germany, Britain and France are meeting in Berlin for a one-day summit with talks expected to focus on boosting Europe's economy. Steven Everts of the Centre for European Reform said French President Jacques Chirac and German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder "both ... realize this old way of running the EU is no longer viable." "We're going to have 10 very pro-American countries entering the EU, and even among the present 15 the Franco-German pretence of leadership is much harder to accept," Everts said. The failure of the EU summit in December to agree on a constitution for an enlarged union was a reminder of just how hard it will be to avoid gridlock as a decision-making body of 25. "It is true that decision-making is going to be harder, there are more interests to reconcile, the national reflexes will grow further, so we need more leadership in Europe," Everts said. Reuters, 18 February 2004 Blair set for "Big Three" meeting Blair is keen to re-establish his credentials as a committed European, as well as a faithful U.S. ally, and all sides want to put last year's divisions over Iraq behind them. Schröder and Chirac both want to reinforce the traditional Franco-German axis after the uproar caused by last year's decision by EU finance ministers to suspend the bloc's Stability Pact after Germany and France broke EU budget rules. "I think it's really still about overcoming the divisions after Iraq," said Heather Grabbe, deputy director of the British-based Centre for European Reform think-tank. "It's not at all clear how a summit between three countries is going to achieve something that 15 countries have not achieved in the years since Lisbon," Grabbe said.EU observer.com, 16 February 2004 Europe waits to asses UK-French-German relationship A core Europe? However, one of the most important aspects of the meeting on Wednesday will be whether the alliance is permanent.The determining factor will be whether the three will have enough to fill a common agenda, says Heather Grabbe, deputy director at the Centre for European Reform. While they have some common ideas in foreign and defence policy – last year they formed an alliance to confront Iran on its nuclear weapons and brokered a deal to bring forward EU defence policy – there are still many areas of division in justice and home affairs issues, economic issues and the single market. Nevertheless, "the idea of a core Europe looks very tempting on the eve of enlargement", says Ms Grabbe adding that the meeting is an admission by the three countries that an "EU of 25 is going to be really quite hard to manage". Retaliatory alliances - Depending on how concrete the relationship between France, Germany and the UK proves to be – it may also spawn retaliatory alliances. It is conceivable that Spain, Italy and Poland – as the other big countries in the EU - also set up their own group, says Ms Grabbe or that in the future "several different groups form to try and block things they do not like." The Wall Street Journal, 13-15 February 2004 Some new jobs, more layoffs "If the EU's labour market statistics look bleak, those in the accession countries are desolate," says Katinka Barysch, chief economist at the London-based Centre for European Reform. The EU's goal of raising employment to 70 per cent of the labour force by 2010 looks out of reach for most east European economies, she says. To help out of work coal miners, farmers and others unable to commute to jobs in better-off cities. Ms Barysch urges increased funding for education and retraining rather than "tighter EU rules." Reuters, 14 February 2004 Europe's big three search for common ground for EU "Clearly all three leaders are worried about how the EU can take decisions after enlargement," said Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform in London. "Chirac and Schröder know they can't drive a common foreign and security policy without Britain, and Blair thinks they've all got to overcome the old Europe/new Europe divide," he said. Grant said Blair might be willing to help coax Poland and Spain towards accepting a deal on member states' voting rights that would unblock the stalled EU constitution after May. The three might also be able to agree on ways to adapt the EU's budget deficit rules, which might in the long term make it less unattractive for Britain to join the euro, he argued. But on Iraq and on some areas of European integration, like tax harmonization, farm subsidies or calls for a European public prosecutor, Blair differs strongly from the others. And mistrust between Blair and Chirac runs deep after two years of conflict. BBC News, 13 February 2004 Howard outlines his vision of EU Michael Howard has called for "a new deal on Europe" that would allow member-states like the UK to determine how much integration they want. Charles Grant from the Centre for European Reform, said the speech marked Mr Howard's desire for a more positive realationship with Europe from that favoured by his predecessor, Iain Duncan Smith. MENAFN.com, 12 February 2004 Europe lukewarm about Bush Mideast plan Could the Middle East, which sparked such bitter divisions between the United States and Europe last year, be the issue that brings the two powers together in 2004? Senior officials on both sides of the Atlantic certainly hope so - and there are encouraging signs Brussels and Washington will be able to ditch their differences over Iraq to focus on the wider goal of bringing peace and democracy to the "Arab street." But the biggest problem Europeans have with Bush's master plan is that it diverts attention away from the conflict between Israelis and Palestinians. "The Americans have to realize that this is the cancer of the region," says Steven Everts, a Middle East analyst at the Center for European Reform think tank in London. "As long as the perception exists that America has double standards - that it indulges the Israelis while being tough on Muslim regimes - they're not going to get very far." Says Everts: "This is a great project for trans-Atlantic relations. It is not only the right thing to do for the Middle East, but it has therapeutic value - it is something that should unite the EU and the United States." Not all EU-watchers share Everts' optimism, but if there is one rule that governs both Brussels and Washington's approach to the Middle East it is enlightened self-interest. The Christian Science Monitor, 12 February 2004 Poland tightens eastern border as new outpost of EU - Flexible visas? The new visa, if approved, would be issued for people who have relatives or property on the other side; it would also help facilitate short- distance commercial travel between countries such as Poland and Ukraine. However, the proposal is controversial among current EU member states, all of which still need to approve the plan. Meanwhile, some analysts say a dangerous division between EU and non-EU is developing nonetheless. "People on the other side of those borders don't see what's going on at the policy level, or what the concerns [of the EU] are," says Heather Grabbe, a researcher at the Centre for European Reform in London. "What they care about is whether or not their daily lives have changed as a result of the EU expansion," she says. "And they have. This new border is a big deal for Russia, for Ukraine, for Belarus. It's already disrupted trade and daily cross-border traffic, and it's kept them from seeing their relatives." Antiwar.com, 12 February 2004 Towards the EU super-state? Since 9/11, all European security forces have, regardless of their opinion on the Iraq war, been refocused to the fight against terrorism. That this is not just America's fight would seem to be proven by the pervasiveness of terrorist planning cited by European police. Nevertheless, even within the affluent and interconnected countries of the European Union, many believe there is still room for improvement. A report from the British Centre for European Reform claims: "…national governments urgently need to overhaul further their approach to security policy: Europe's security agencies intelligence, police and armed forces are organized in ways that remain more suited to fighting the battles of the Cold War era. …since the terrorist threat exists both inside and outside the EU, governments cannot afford to maintain the traditional distinction between external and internal security."Business Week, 9 February 2004 Turkey's EU bid: resistance is on the rise When it comes to its ally Turkey, the US has long has a consistent goal: The European Union should take in the largely Muslim eastern Mediterranean nation as a full member. That was one of the key messages when Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan met with President George W. Bush in Washington on 28 January. "Turkey is becoming a symbol for too much Islamic influence in Europe," says Charles Grant , director of the London-based Centre for European Reform. Radio Free Europe, 5 February 2004 Romania: Brussels' tough stance sends clear signal to other EU hopefuls Analysts say it is not uncommon for the EU to send warning letters to candidate countries when they do not fulfill the political criteria for membership. Analyst Heather Grabbe of the London-based Centre for European Reform (CER) said such letters have been sent in the past to Slovak Prime Minister Vladimir Meciar. But Grabbe told RFE/RL that it is the first time that a candidate has come so close to having the EU consider the issue of suspending negotiations. "The EU has not got a common position on this [suspension issue] yet, and even the commission itself hasn't taken a clear line of saying that it is going to suspend negotiations [with Romania]," she said. "But it's true this is the first time that a candidate country has been so close to the commission having to look at the question of suspending negotiations. It's primarily because of action by the [European] Parliament." Grabbe says that by mentioning the possibility - however remote - of a suspension of negotiations, the EU has sent a strong signal to all current and future EU hopefuls that they have to strictly observe the political criteria. Turkey, which is a candidate but has yet to be given a clear date to start admission talks, has had a difficult time fulfilling the political criteria. "The EU has, in fact, shown itself in the past to be willing to enforce its political conditionality, and I think it will do so in future, definitely with Turkey," Grabbe said. "Turkey has to fulfill the political conditions before it can begin negotiations, and the EU is keeping a very close eye on that. So the commission will come up with a report in the autumn in which they will say whether or not they think Turkey has met the political conditions. But even if the country is said to have met the conditions and actually started negotiations, as Romania has done and as Turkey will do at some point, even after that, the conditions are not deemed to have been met forever." Grabbe concluded that the European Commission does not appear to be trying to present Romania as a negative example to others. But the European Parliament has reiterated that it remains very keen that candidates not only must meet all the technical conditions, but also the political conditions. Reuters, 5 February 2004 East Europe dismayed as UK mulls migration curbs "It's a classic example when policy is made in response to a few scare stories," said Heather Grabbe, deputy director of the London-based Centre for European Reform. "They should know better and be more robust standing up to this scaremongering." Grabbe and other experts say fears that millions of east Europeans will hit the road come May 1 are overdone, also because thousands are already working across the EU as cleaners, nannies and builders, low paid jobs often shunned by locals. Financial Times, 2 February 2004 UK to tighten benefit rules to limit EU migration There is a growing fear across western European governments that EU enlargement could prove the rallying ground for populist or xenophobic campaigns. "This is the perfect ground for the right-wing press," said Heather Grabbe, deputy director of the Centre for European Reform think-tank. "They can bash the EU, asylum seekers and the Roma in one single story." De Volkskrant, 31 January 2004 Grote Drie in EU gaan afstemmen Volgens Steven Everts van het Centre for European Reform in Londen is het vaak "domweg nodig" dat de Grote Drie samenwerken, wil er iets gebeuren in de EU. "Maar als het een poging van de Drie wordt om een heel breed scala van onderwerpen te bedisselen, dan gaat dat te ver." Radio Free Europe, 30 January 2004 Poland: call for US visa reprive may inspire others Heather Grabbe of the London-based Centre for European Reform, says lifting visa restrictions is very important because it offers a direct benefit to ordinary citizens. "Most ordinary citizens don't see the benefits of high political relations, or, say, a good rapport between President Kwasniewski and President Bush, whereas if the visa restrictions are actually lifted, that's an immediate and direct benefit to nearly 40 million Polish citizens," she said. "So I think they are actually incredibly important, and it was quite right of Kwasniewski to raise this issue, because if the U.S. is tightening the entry requirements as part of the fight against terror, then Poland should surely get some benefit from helping the U.S. in the fight against terror. So I think it's quite right that allies should ask for rewards from the U.S. for their support." Analyst Heather Grabbe says requesting similar visa treatment from the United States could prove an important electoral issue in Romania. "For Romanians, to get a lifting of restrictions to [go to] the U.S. would be a big deal," she said. "It would mean that the U.S. is treating them the same as all the other Europeans. It's also a very popular measure, so I can see why it would be appealing in an election year."Grabbe also pointed to the fact that all candidates set to join the EU will want to enjoy the same treatment as current EU members, whose citizens do not need visas to enter the United States For now, however, U.S. visa restrictions are decided on a strictly bilateral level. The Boston Globe, 29 January 2004 Ex-associates paint Clark as decisive, 'micromanager' Ever since retired Army General Wesley K. Clark tossed his helmet in the ring for the Democratic nomination, his campaign has trumpeted his experience as the supreme allied commander of NATO forces during the war in Kosovo. Steven Everts, director of the transatlantic program for the Centre for European Reform, a London-based think-tank, has closely studies the diplomatic and military lessons of Kosovo. "On paper, Europeans should like Clark. But there is some hesitation," said Everts. "He pushed all the right buttons on multilateralism and consensus, but when you speak with those who worked with him, there is often a different impression." European Voice, 22-28 January 2004 Europe should play hardball as Iran stalls for time over weapons and human rights A new paper from the London-based Centre for European Reform sounds a sceptical note. "Iran has enormous oil and gas reserves and every year flares off more energy than its nuclear plants will produce. Why exactly is Iran building a heavy-water reactor in Arak and a uranium enrichment facility in Natanz? Iran only admitted their existence after a group of exiled Iranians, the National Council of Resistance of Iran, revealed them all." The paper's author Steven Everts, says that EU policy makers have to prove that their policy of 'conditional engagement' with the country is a serious one. The conditional nature of the strategy was highlighted last year when the EU called off its talks on trade and co-operation agreement (TCA), saying they would only be resumed once fears over Iran's nuclear intentions are allayed. "At the moment, the Europeans have to make the nuclear agreement stick," Everts remarks. "It is a very fragile agreement. The Iranians are playing for time and the Europeans have to make clear that is not acceptable. The bigger picture is that Iran is a real test case for the EU. If we want effective multilateralism after the reservations expressed about how the Iraq campaign was managed, it is incumbent on us to show that other policies and strategies can deliver results." Progress, he believes, can be made if the EU skillfully emphasizes the rewards that Iran can achieve in response to abandoning its weapons plans and in improving its record on human rights and democracy. "Both sides are condemned to succeed. Iran needs Europe because it has no relations with the US. It needs trade links and investment." Gazeta Wyborcza, 27 January 2004 Malo prawdopodobne, aby raport Briana Huttona zakonczyl polityczna kariere Heather Grabbe, ekspert londynskiego Centre for European Reform: Tony'ego Blaira. Na pewno jego opublikowanie bedzie dla niego trudnym momentem, ale mysle, ze premier przetrwa. Blair byl wystarczajaco daleko od osób zamieszanych w samobójstwo Kelly'ego. Bardziej prawdopodobne, ze zniszczona zostanie kariera ministra obrony Geoffa Hoona. Bowiem to jemu podlegly departament ujawnil nazwisko naukowca. Reuters, 24 January 2004 EU takes foreign policy to new territories A trip last week by Solana to Iran, Afghanistan and Georgia signaled the dramatic eastward shift of territory where the EU wants to wield influence. "The Europeans can't be everywhere. They must think strategically and globally but start with the 'Near Abroad'," said Steven Everts of the Centre for European Reform in London. While the Commission has long had relations with most parts of the world, based on political dialogue, trade and aid, the Council only appointed Solana as its first High Representative for Common and Security Policy in 1999. It is this role that Solana is trying to build on. "The Commission has always had a global role in aid and trade, but [the EU] has not yet been involved politically." The Prague Post, 22 January 2004 Brussels bound - critics say likely envoy to European Commission could mean missed chance Poland and Lithuania are two new member countries likely to send women representatives. For a small country such as the Czech Republic, analysts say, it could pay dividends to follow suit. "The job you get depends on your country and your candidate," says Heather Grabbe at the London-based Centre for European Reform. "It is a big deal having a woman," she added. ...Kuzvart was replaced as environment minister when the Spidla government took power in 2000 but has remained loyal to the party. "It sounds like a reward for good behaviuor," said Grabbe. ...Grabbe said it is vital that a small country sends a commissioner who is seen as "really great," perhaps a former prime minister. "The quality of the candidate matters a lot [in determing] what portfolio a country gets," she said. The odds of getting a top spot would be greatly improved by the choice of Janu, Grabbe said. "If the Czechs had a really good woman, they would get a better portfolio," she said, Grabbe added that she would be surprised if Prodi pushed for the election of a woman. The incoming president could also have a say in whether Kuzvart's term lasts six months of five years. "If he completely bombs, the new president can reject him," Grabbe said. EU Observer, 21 January 2004 EU downbeat on its goal of trying to catch US ...Alasdair Murray, economics expert at the Centre for European Reform, told the EU observer, "The Commission report shows that although we are nearly at the half-way point in the Lisbon programme, many EU governments are still half-hearted about the need for reform." Mr Murray warned, "EU leaders must use the spring summit in March to push through some meaningful reform measures. Otherwise the economic gulf between the EU and the US risks becoming ever larger." European Voice, 15-21 January 2004 Vitorino emerges as dark horse in race to win top job Charles Grant, of the London-based Centre for European Reform (CER), believes Vitorino, a former Portuguese defence minister, is already the front-runner to replace Prodi when the Italian's term in office ends in October. "He's a good communicator, has good English and is intelligent without being arrogant," says Grant. "He also has a good technical understanding of how the EU works." Grant argues that member-states must not make the "mistake" of thinking the next president should be a former prime minister. "You only have to look at Prodi and Jacques Santer, former prime ministers of Italy and Luxembourg respectively, to see that isn't necessarily the best move. Prodi's term has, frankly been a disappointment while Santer was forced to resign." Time, 17 January 2004 All ready on the Eastern front - Will the U.S. military shift from Old Europe to New? The Pentagon ponders bases beyond the Iron Curtain Pentagon officials and military analysts have been quick to insist that the changes have nothing to do with the souring of relations between the U.S. and Germany over Iraq. "It's part of a natural progression, as the U.S. rethinks its positioning globally, to lower-cost, more flexible facilities," says Steven Everts, director of the transatlantic program at the Centre for European Reform in London. Voice of America, 16 January 2004 Upcoming EU expansion raises many questions Analyst Heather Grabbe, at London's Centre for European Reform, says, asking where Europe's borders end is a bit like asking how long a piece of string is. "The way the EU has tried to define it is more as a community of values. If you can sign up to our values, and you're reasonably close to Europe geographically, then, maybe, you can apply for membership," she said. "But this raises some very difficult dilemmas. Is Turkey European, for example, is a question that many Europeans still ask themselves, even though the EU has basically promised Turkey that it can join eventually. It has accepted it as a candidate. But then, there are other countries, like, say, Israel, or Morocco, where sometimes people talk about membership. Are they to be considered European? And, if, say Turkey is accepted as European, then why not Ukraine as a member of the Union?" Wprost [Poland], 16 January 2004 The race to Brussels To najmocniejszy typ, wlasciwie nie ma wad. Pozostali kandydaci stanowia dla niego tylko tlo - powiedziala "Wprost" Heather Grabbe, wicedyrektor londynskiego Centrum Reform Europejskich (CER). Paradoksalnie jednak nikt nie daje Junckerowi duzych szans na zwyciestwo. - Jego problemem jest kraj pochodzenia, Luksemburczycy juz dwukrotnie stali na czele komisji. Poza tym nie lubi go Tony Blair, a bez poparcia Wielkiej Brytanii trudno zostac szefem waznej europejskiej agendy - wyjasnia Grabbe. Mimo to Juncker chyba do konca bedzie sie liczyc w rozgrywce o fotel przewodniczacego. International Herald Tribune, 15 January 2004 Caught in middle of euro battle - Dutch government to decide by end of week on joining suit "The timing is very funny," said Heather Grabbe, deputy director at the Centre for European Reform in London. "Why is the Commission picking a fight when it's on the way out? They're leaving it for their successors to sort out." De Volkskrant, 14 January 2004 The European Commission against the powerful According to Katinka Barysch, economic expert at the Centre for European Reform, the Commission is trying hard to defend its influence via-a-vis the member-states of the EU. "The trend in the last few years has been that member-states are trying to regain powers from Brussels. The big countries especially are less and less willing to abide by European rules." "The general tendency is that member-states no longer take the EU very seriously and apparently the Commission has decided: enough is enough," says Barysch. The Times, 14 January 2004 Dismay greets £18bn defence spending cuts Daniel Keohane, research fellow at the Centre for European Reform in London, said that the cuts would send the wrong signal. "If the biggest members of the European Union with the largest economies won't spend more on defence, it will have a huge impact on smaller countries," he said. Mr Keohane said that 15 EU members were spending $125 billion on defence, less than half of the United State's expenditure, and they could deploy overseas fewer than 10 per cent of their two million troops. Dow Jones, 13 January 2004 EU unveils plan to free up movement for Svc professionals "Freeing up public services such as construction and garbage collection could prove problematic," says Alasdair Murray, director of the economics and social policy unit at the Centre for European Reform. "The proposals will make life easier for SMEs by cutting legal and compliance costs," says analyst Murray. Financial Times, 12 January 2004 Solana travels to Iran to revitalise nuclear talks Javier Solana, the European Union foreign policy chief, was due in Iran on Sunday night for a two-day visit designed to keep up European momentum for dialogue with Tehran, which last month agreed to greater international access to its nuclear facilities. "The challenge [for the EU] is to make clear that it takes Iran's security concerns seriously, while showing that nuclear weapons are not the answer," said Steven Everts, senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform, the London based think-tank. Business Week, 12 January 2004 He'll need the luck of the Irish - As Charles McCreevy heads for Brussels, the economic infighting is deafening Poland and nine other Eastern Europe nations are preparing to join the EU in the largest single act of expansion the union has ever witnessed. "The EU is divided, stressed, and anxious," says Heather Grabbe, deputy director of the Centre for European Reform, a London think-tank. Can McCreevy be the great conciliator and a free-market apostle at the same time? "He can be a bit confrontational," says Daniel Keohane, a research fellow at the Centre for European Reform. "But he is a shrewd politician. You only get to the top of Fianna Fail [the biggest party in Ireland's center-right governing coalition] if you understand and can handle its Byzantine politics." Scotland on Sunday, 11 January 2004 Italy sees return of anarchist spectre ...while the Informal Anarchist Federation (IAF) is not expected to have any serious political impact, a continued spate of letter bombs could undermine the mainstream Europsceptic view. Heather Grabbe, an analyst at the Centre for European Reform, said: "Once an anarchist group is involved, and there is a hint of terrorism, it takes some of the wind out of the sails of legitimate oppnents of the constitution. If this is the start of a major terrorist campaign, it will change the political landscape, and change the terms of debate." Reuters, 8 January 2004 Productivity puzzle complicates euro reform push "The headline Lisbon goal is more aspirational than realistic," said Alasdair Murray, director at the business and social policy unit at the London-based Centre for European Reform. "But we can at least hope further reforms will narrow the gap with the U.S." International Herald Tribune, 7 January 2004 EU talks on charter 'urgent' "We're going to have so many problems really quite quickly," said Heather Grabbe, the deputy director at the Centre for European Reform in London, referring to the impending expansion of the Union. "We need to get on with it." With the prospect of continued deadlock on the constitution, Romano Prodi, the president of the European Commission, on Tuesday reiterated the option of a two-speed Europe - with a core of European countries that would integrate faster than the rest. ...But as a measure of the deeply ingrained pessimism on the chances of the Irish presidency to clinch a deal, British officials are reportedly anxious because they may be given the constitution dossier when they take over the presidency - in the second half of 2005. The Netherlands and Luxembourg are before them. "This could go on until 2005," Grabbe said. "There is a lack of political will to see the project through to completion," she added. International Herald Tribune, 6 January 2004 Booby-trapped devices again reach EU offices Despite the relatively harmless nature of the booby-trapped letters, Heather Grabbe, the deputy director at the Center for European Reform in London, said the apparent failure to better co-ordinate investigations revealed a weakness in pan-European police co-operation. "European anti-terrorist co-operation is still so incredibly fragmented, so dependent on bilateral deals and individual police officers trusting one another that you can't expect any kind of co-ordinated institutionalised response," Grabbe said. "It's very ad-hoc." Financial Times, 5 January 2004 Life will be cool for Eurocrats under Ireland's EU presidency ... and unofficial "future shapers of Europe" list from the London-based Centre for European Reform, which falls into Observer's hands, tips Siim Kallas, Estonia's former prime minister and central bank governor, as his country's man. But the CER says most new member-states are dithering between a competent technocrat or a politician. "Politics," it concludes, "is likely to win out". Most newcomers "will be national politicians with very little experience of doing business in Brussels." Yet interns learn fast... European Voice, 18 December - 14 January 2004 Time has come for stability pact overhaul, declare policy pundits The Stability and Growth Pact may have lost pretty much all credibility since eurozone finance ministers refused last month to sanction France and Germany for blatantly ignoring it, but that's no reason for scrapping EU budgetary rules, argue many of Europe's leading think-tanks. “The rationale for having common fiscal rules is as valid today as in 1997, when the pact was drawn up,” argues Katinka Barysch, chief economist at the London-based Centre For European Reform (CER), in a recent in-depth paper entitled A Pact for Stability and Growth. “If countries share a common currency, they should not and cannot be indifferent to each others fiscal policies. Profligate public spending in one eurozone country could push up inflation and force the European Central Bank to keep interest rates higher than they would otherwise be,” she adds. But having argued strongly in favour of keeping some budgetary discipline rules, Barysch is scathing about the pact in its current form. “As it stands, the Stability and Growth Pact ensures neither stability nor growth,” she said bluntly, adding that in her opinion the Union's fiscal rulebook has “lost all credibility”. The CER analyst favours a new pact that would allow eurozone governments with low public debts to borrow money, and not just for investment. Such comments are likely to go down well with many of the smaller eurozone countries who are seething after seeing Paris and Berlin let off from obeying the tough EU budgetary rules they all had to respect. Barysch also says that governments who fail to rein in large deficits during periods of strong economic growth – as was the case with France in 1999 and 2000 – should face immediate sanctions. The current pact only “starts to bite when growth slows and budget deficits hit the 3% ceiling”, she adds. |