Europe's
Power of Attraction by
Heather Grabbe
published: 24 April 2003
Europe is full
of gloom about the prospects for a common foreign and security policy, following
the EU's spectacular divisions on U.S. policy over Iraq. But Europe should learn
from its successes as well as its failures. Last week, the EU celebrated the
success of its most effective foreign policy ever when it signed an accession
treaty with 10 post-communist countries. Their membership in the European Union
from May 1, 2004 is a triumph of Europe's "soft power"--the force
of attraction and the ability to shape countries in the EU's own image.
For over a decade, the EU has been actively involved in state-building on a
huge scale in Central and Eastern Europe. The Union has influenced almost every
aspect of institutional and economic reform in these countries. The United States
cannot boast that any country has adopted its norms and values as assiduously
as the candidate countries have taken on the EU's models.
The initial "regime change" was achieved by the people of Central
and Eastern Europe themselves. But after the 1989 revolutions were over and
the hard work of reconstructing states and markets began, the EU provided a
strong guiding hand. The EU did not just lead by example, it used its soft power
instruments actively to encourage the post-communist countries to move toward
westward models.
The Union cannot claim all the credit for the region's progress, because most
of the hard work was done by the countries themselves. But the EU was able to
empower reformist politicians by approving their efforts and rewarding them
with aid, trade and political ties. The Union influenced the political choices
of the Central and East Europeans across a vast range of policy areas, from
market regulation to the protection of minority rights. It also guided the reforms
in great detail, from setting toy standards to improving air quality.
Enlargement is a foreign policy that taps the EU's strengths. Trade, investment
and aid were much more important in influencing the post-communist transformation
than the EU's puny military capabilities. It used the power of attraction, not
coercion. And the slow-moving, cumbersome nature of the EU's supranational institutions
was an advantage--unusually--because it ensured the continuity of a long-term
policy even as the commitment of the national governments wavered.
How can the EU replicate this success in the wider region surrounding it? After
its success in Central Europe, the EU is failing to exercise soft power effectively
in neighboring countries to the east, and in North Africa. Where is the clear,
consistent, unified EU agenda for the long-term development of Ukraine, let
alone for Moldova or Algeria?
Part of the problem is that the EU is still inward-looking rather than outward-oriented.
The EU expends vastly more energy considering its own internal organization,
as the fuss over Valery Giscard d'Estaing's latest ruminations yesterday on
a possible constitution shows, than how to shape its regional environment. Another
problem is timing: the EU tends to respond slowly to crises. Soft power is greatest
at moments when countries are trying to reform themselves, when they are looking
for the kind of models that the EU can offer. Such moments have to be seized
quickly, so the EU should develop the capacity to act much faster.
The greatest problem, though, is that other countries' membership aspirations
are viewed as an existential threat in many EU countries. Somehow it is dangerous
to the EU that Morocco might try again to apply for membership some day. The
biggest carrot must be hidden away lest it tempt the unworthy.
This attitude is short-sighted. The power of attraction is a vital foreign policy
tool, one that the EU should use more creatively to shape its "near abroad."
A recent paper on neighborhood policy from the European Commission takes the
right line: it suggested that the Union's frontiers should not be established
once and for all, and that nearby countries should be offered more access to
the single market in return for reforms. But this policy needs more substance,
and it needs political leadership from the national capitals. The EU's neighborhood
is not a high priority in Paris, London, or even Berlin. But it should be, given
that many of the greatest policy challenges come from the surrounding region:
poverty and instability there create a fertile ground for crime just across
the EU's border and make more people think of moving westwards.
The enlargement process offers important lessons for using soft power better.
First, membership prospects must be credible. You have to live up to your promises,
or you will undermine the reformers' efforts. The EU has been less successful
in influencing Turkey than it was in post-communist Europe partly because it
has blown hot and cold on the membership question.
Second, the standards must be high, so that by the time a country attains them,
it will not disrupt the Union. Third, the conditions must be clear, so that
policy-makers know what has to be done before they can join. And finally, the
same standards must be consistently applied to all comers. No country should
ever be told that it will be in by a certain date regardless of how it behaves--as
some EU politicians were prone to tell Poland in the 1990s. But, equally, no
country should be told that it can never join, no matter how well it meets the
conditions-as some have told Turkey.
EU enlargement also holds general lessons for attempts at reconstructing economies
and societies emerging from authoritarianism. The two most important: Winning
hearts and minds is essential to ensuring that reforms take root. And state-building
is a long haul that offers few immediate political rewards. The new members
are finally ready to join the Union nearly 15 years after the change of regime,
and they started in better shape than present-day Iraq. None of the presidents
and prime ministers who started this process is still there at the end to take
the credit. Let's hope the Bush administration has that kind of patience for
Iraq.
Ms.
Grabbe is research director of the Center for European Reform, a think-tank
in London.