"They will believe the economy is their priority. They won't want Europe as an issue to distract energy and attention and time," said Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform think-tank.
"I find it sinister and silly, it is a complete overreaction," said Philip Whyte of the Centre for European Reform, a pro-European Union research institute in London. "There is a certain school of thought in continental Europe that everything is always the fault of hedge funds." Schaeuble's comments reflected "a longstanding paranoia about the Anglo-Saxon model of capitalism."
"She will not solve the peace process on her first flying visit," said Hugo Brady, of the Centre for European Reform. "The full glare of the international media is on her now to see if she will make any mistakes but she simply has to show that she is an engaged player and not create a vacuum for criticism to flow into. The EU has yet to realise its full potential for influence in that part of the world and it should have some extra weight for all the money it is pouring in."
It has gone really surprisingly well, for the simple reason that it is so relentlessly targeted on this perennial problem that has bedevilled British education for so long for generations, which is the link between social deprivation and educational underperformance, a link which is pretty well stronger than almost anywhere else in Europe. I would like to think people also recognise this is not something I have just alighted on out of nowhere; I first wrote or co-authored a pamphlet about this for the Centre for European Reform. … some nine years ago.
"Unless we see more focus on growth and a less obsessive focus on stability, I think there will be trouble. You are not going to have stability without growth," said Simon Tilford of the London-based Centre for European Reform think tank. "It will be hard to get Spanish people to acquiesce to austerity measures. It's going to be a tough sell."
"The concern over speculation is obscuring the underlying issue that Greece and other nations have very precarious fiscal positions," said Simon Tilford, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform.
"If the fund marks the start of recognition that there needs to be further political integration, then great. If it doesn't, all it will be is sticking plaster", said Simon Tilford, an analyst at the London-based Centre for European Reform.
The simple truth is that the Lisbon Treaty can't re-create the EU as a superpower. Says Hugo Brady of the Centre for European Reform, a London-based think tank: "It is not personality that denotes power: it is money, guns, political will, and diplomatic influence. When the EU can deploy those efficiently, then other countries will sit up and listen."
"It would be damaging for the eurozone going forward because it would sow seeds of doubt about whether this is really a currency union, or just a group of countries that share a currency," said Simon Tilford, the chief economist of the Centre for European Reform in London.
One point is that weakening EU competition policy to support national champions is a non-starter given that the US, Japan and, increasingly, China itself are taking a cross-border view of antitrust enforcement. Then there is the economic downside. "Diluting either anti-trust policy or relaxing state-aid rules would undermine Europe's long-term economic prospects, not bolster them," says Simon Tilford, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform, a London-based think-tank.
"C’est bien là la cause de toutes les difficultés qu’auront ensuite la Grande-Bretagne et l’Europe à accorder leurs violons", estime Simon Tilford, chef économiste du CER, basé à Londres.
"The impact on growth from changes in the minimum wage comes down to the level at which it is set," said Simon Tilford, chief economist at the CER in London
Simon Tilford of the CER claims the two sides will struggle to open their markets fully to each other’s farm produce. "When they get down to the nitty-gritty, it’s possible that the negotiations will founder on some of the cultural differences between the EU and the US over things such as genetically modified food," says Tilford.
"A referendum looks almost inevitable now but the timeframe is uncertain," says Katinka Barysch, deputy director of the CER in London. She says the debate is already having a negative economic impact: Investors are getting nervous.
“Politics is one of the black swans of the eurozone this year. In Italy we could have political uncertainty, perhaps the return of Silvio Berlusconi. In Spain, we don’t know where the current scandal surrounding the prime minister will go", said Philip Whyte, of the CER
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