Charles Grant, director of the CER argues that EU governments will not grant treaty opt-outs to Britain because of fears that it could gain "an unfair competitive advantage" within the single market and encourage other countries to follow Britain's pick-and-mix example.
Simon Tilford of the CER says it's the government's fault for talking tough and denting confidence. "The language they've adopted: 'We must cut. We must rein in spending. We must accept lower living standards.' This has unsettled both consumers and companies," claims Tilford.
"The consequences are likely to be far-reaching. Not only will governments struggle to push through the needed reforms, but there is a risk of a broader backlash against the market economy and the European Union," said Simon Tilford, chief economist at the CER.
In an article in the FT, Charles Grant of the CER wrote of a multi-tier Europe and said: "Life in the third tier need not be uncomfortable for the UK. If it makes an effort to win friends and allies among its partners, including those in the euro, it will have an influential voice in EU decision-making."
"Le politiche di austerità in fase recessiva sono sempre un rischio, ma lo sono specialmente quando tutta l'Europa sta tirando la cinghia. Queste politiche di austerità, attuate in modo scoordinato a livello europeo e in fase recessiva, sono state un fallimento totale e pongono una seria minaccia alla moneta unica" dice a Libero Simon Tilford, capo economista del CER.
"C’est bien là la cause de toutes les difficultés qu’auront ensuite la Grande-Bretagne et l’Europe à accorder leurs violons", estime Simon Tilford, chef économiste du CER, basé à Londres.
"The impact on growth from changes in the minimum wage comes down to the level at which it is set," said Simon Tilford, chief economist at the CER in London
Simon Tilford of the CER claims the two sides will struggle to open their markets fully to each other’s farm produce. "When they get down to the nitty-gritty, it’s possible that the negotiations will founder on some of the cultural differences between the EU and the US over things such as genetically modified food," says Tilford.
"A referendum looks almost inevitable now but the timeframe is uncertain," says Katinka Barysch, deputy director of the CER in London. She says the debate is already having a negative economic impact: Investors are getting nervous.
“Politics is one of the black swans of the eurozone this year. In Italy we could have political uncertainty, perhaps the return of Silvio Berlusconi. In Spain, we don’t know where the current scandal surrounding the prime minister will go", said Philip Whyte, of the CER
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