Europe's leaders are - understandably - focused on the euro crisis, pretty much to the exclusion of all else. But policy-makers should beware another calamity in 2012: a possible breakdown of the EU's Schengen zone of passport-free travel. Undoubtedly, these two troubled flagships of European integration share parallels.
EU officials are putting the final touches to the first draft of a 'fiscal stability' treaty to be ratified by eurozone countries by the end of 2012. The treaty - which commits each euro government to run balanced budgets in perpetuity - will be one of the oddest ever signed up to by an Irish government.
There are many puzzles about the British government's tactics at last week's EU summit. One is why it chose to identify the City of London as the "vital national interest" that needed special protection. The City, after all, is the most unpopular "national champion" that the UK possesses.
Londra. "Foolish". Assurda, dissennata, imprudente. La decisione presa da David Cameron preoccupa Simon Tilford, capo economista della prestigiosa think tank britannica Centre for european reform. La mossa del premier è incomprensibile, sostiene Tilford, e danneggerà la Gran Bretagna ma, in parte, anche la Ue.
This week’s summit will do little to solve the fundamentals of this crisis. What has been agreed is definitely not a fiscal union, there is no agreement to close any of the institutional gaps in the eurozone, such as the lack of any real fiscal union or pan-eurozone backstop to the banking sector. Without these two things the crisis will continue to worsen.
«In questo momento mi pare si possa adattare ai leader europei quello che Churchill usava dire a proposito degli americani: si può sempre essere sicuri che facciano la cosa giusta, una volta che abbiano esaurito tutte le altre possibilità».
"C’est bien là la cause de toutes les difficultés qu’auront ensuite la Grande-Bretagne et l’Europe à accorder leurs violons", estime Simon Tilford, chef économiste du CER, basé à Londres.
"The impact on growth from changes in the minimum wage comes down to the level at which it is set," said Simon Tilford, chief economist at the CER in London
Simon Tilford of the CER claims the two sides will struggle to open their markets fully to each other’s farm produce. "When they get down to the nitty-gritty, it’s possible that the negotiations will founder on some of the cultural differences between the EU and the US over things such as genetically modified food," says Tilford.
"A referendum looks almost inevitable now but the timeframe is uncertain," says Katinka Barysch, deputy director of the CER in London. She says the debate is already having a negative economic impact: Investors are getting nervous.
“Politics is one of the black swans of the eurozone this year. In Italy we could have political uncertainty, perhaps the return of Silvio Berlusconi. In Spain, we don’t know where the current scandal surrounding the prime minister will go", said Philip Whyte, of the CER
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