In Europe, or in the US more particularly, we are seeing investors are losing confidence in the ability of various economies, various governments to service their debts.
In Moscow, the speculation about Russia’s next president is becoming tedious. Dmitry Medvedev has made it clear he would like to run again, but most people think Vladimir Putin, prime minister, will be the official candidate and win March’s election.
George Soros is right that Germany's new approach to Europe bears some responsibility for the eurozone crisis. Germany's leaders are finding it hard to consider broader European rather than immediate national interests.
A single European currency has the merit of encouraging trade and investment across frontiers, and thus growth. But countries with inflexible, badly-run economies should never have been allowed to join the euro. The sooner the eurozone shrinks, the sooner it will stabilise.
Une mauvaise compréhension de ce que sont les moteurs de la croissance économique menace la reprise en Europe. Ses dirigeants sont obsédés par la compétitivité et paraissent croire sincèrement que prospérité rime avec excédent commercial.
A flawed understanding of what drives economic growth has emerged as the gravest threat to recovery in Europe. European policymakers are obsessed with national “competitiveness,” and genuinely appear to think that prosperity is synonymous with trade surpluses.
"C’est bien là la cause de toutes les difficultés qu’auront ensuite la Grande-Bretagne et l’Europe à accorder leurs violons", estime Simon Tilford, chef économiste du CER, basé à Londres.
"The impact on growth from changes in the minimum wage comes down to the level at which it is set," said Simon Tilford, chief economist at the CER in London
Simon Tilford of the CER claims the two sides will struggle to open their markets fully to each other’s farm produce. "When they get down to the nitty-gritty, it’s possible that the negotiations will founder on some of the cultural differences between the EU and the US over things such as genetically modified food," says Tilford.
"A referendum looks almost inevitable now but the timeframe is uncertain," says Katinka Barysch, deputy director of the CER in London. She says the debate is already having a negative economic impact: Investors are getting nervous.
“Politics is one of the black swans of the eurozone this year. In Italy we could have political uncertainty, perhaps the return of Silvio Berlusconi. In Spain, we don’t know where the current scandal surrounding the prime minister will go", said Philip Whyte, of the CER
Press office
To contact one of our experts for comment please either call +44 (0) 20 7233 1199 or email: pressoffice@cer.org.uk
