Katinka Barysch, the head of the Russia research program at the London-based Centre for European Reform, has written extensively about politics and economics in Eastern Europe and advised Britain's House of Lords and European Commission on foreign policy.
The deal in Brussels on a new treaty this weekend is good news for those who hope the EU can become a more confident and effective contributor to global security.
Thank goodness for the agreement in Brussels last night. Without a deal, the EU would have been mired in arguments on treaties, institutions and process for a prolonged period.
Martin Wolf's critique of the proposed new EU treaty ("This is a cynical plan for an unnecessary European treaty", June 20) wrongly asserts that the new posts of "president" and "foreign minister" would "centralise decision-making in areas affecting security".
France's Socialist party needs to rethink its identity and its strategy. Having lost three presidential elections in a row, the party needs to learn from centre-left parties not only in Britain, but also in Italy, the Netherlands, the Nordic countries and Spain.
As a former activist in the French Socialist Party, it pains me to welcome the success of a right-wing populist in the first round of the presidential election. But I think that a Nicolas Sarkozy victory may be the best outcome for France and for Europe.
"C’est bien là la cause de toutes les difficultés qu’auront ensuite la Grande-Bretagne et l’Europe à accorder leurs violons", estime Simon Tilford, chef économiste du CER, basé à Londres.
"The impact on growth from changes in the minimum wage comes down to the level at which it is set," said Simon Tilford, chief economist at the CER in London
Simon Tilford of the CER claims the two sides will struggle to open their markets fully to each other’s farm produce. "When they get down to the nitty-gritty, it’s possible that the negotiations will founder on some of the cultural differences between the EU and the US over things such as genetically modified food," says Tilford.
"A referendum looks almost inevitable now but the timeframe is uncertain," says Katinka Barysch, deputy director of the CER in London. She says the debate is already having a negative economic impact: Investors are getting nervous.
“Politics is one of the black swans of the eurozone this year. In Italy we could have political uncertainty, perhaps the return of Silvio Berlusconi. In Spain, we don’t know where the current scandal surrounding the prime minister will go", said Philip Whyte, of the CER
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