The world in 2020 will not see a new world order, but a competition between four ideas of how the world should be run: an American world striving for a balance of power that favours democracy; a 'Eurosphere' whose support for democracy is coupled with a belief in international institutions; an 'axis of sovereignty' led by China and Russia that sees multilateral institutions as protection from western interference; and a Middle Eastern 'faith zone', defined neither by democracy nor the rule of law. This essay sketches the outlines of the 'quadripolar world' that is awaiting us.

Mark Leonard was director of foreign policy at the Centre for European Reform until November 2006. In early 2007 he will set up and direct a new pan European initiative of the Soros Foundations Network, to promote the EU as a model for an open society.