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In November 2009, the German government called for the removal of all US nuclear weapons from Germany. But Germany should not claim protection from NATO's nuclear umbrella without sharing the risks associated with hosting nuclear weapons. In addition, removing tactical nuclear weapons would destabilise the alliance: Turkey could feel compelled to develop its own nuclear weapons, while some NATO members in Central Europe would feel even more threatened by Russia. Nevertheless the German proposal could have some merit if it encouraged NATO and Russia to start talks on reducing their tactical nuclear arsenals. |
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The broad orientation of the Commission's economic policy is unlikely to change. It will continue to defend the single market, free trade and a tough competition policy. However, the economic policies of the Commission and the EU as a whole will inevitably reflect the economic backdrop of slow growth and high unemployment. The most pressing immediate challenge for the Commission is to help prevent Greece or another eurozone member defaulting on its debt. Another will be to draw up a convincing 'EU 2020' programme of economic reform. A third challenge will be to reconcile pressure from member-states for more activist industrial policies with a defence of the single market and adherence to an independent competition policy. |
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The looming deadlock in Turkey's EU accession bid stands in contrast with its increasingly active role in the Middle East, the Caucasus and Central Asia. Some observers worry that Ankara is turning away from the West and is instead pursuing a 'neo-Ottoman' or 'Islamist' foreign policy. Turkey should be able to combine its EU aspirations with its re-emergence as a regional power - provided it maintains its western bonds and continue internal modernisation. The EU, meanwhile, must keep the membership talks moving forward while finding a way of co-operating with Ankara in foreign policy that goes beyond the narrow confines of the accession process. |
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In 2008, the global financial system came close to collapse. Ever since, policy-makers have been busy overhauling the way it is regulated and supervised. Will this flurry of activity produce a more stable financial system – and if it does, at what cost? Many of the changes afoot are desirable. But the reform agenda suffers from three flaws: side-issues are getting more attention than they deserve; regulation is doing all the heavy lifting; and not enough attention is being paid to the combined impact of all the changes underway. The regulatory burden is rising, therefore, but policy may not be taking the optimal path to greater stability. To do so, the reform agenda needs to be guided by a clearer sense of priorities.
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David Cameron, the leader of Britain's Conservatives and perhaps its next prime minister, has unveiled a new strategy for the European Union. Charles Grant assesses its viability and argues that Cameron's scheme to opt out of the EU treaties will be hard to pull off, particularly in the area of social policy. Grant urges Cameron to focus instead on safeguarding key British interests such as the City of London. He concludes that a Conservative Britain would boost its influence in the EU if it came up with constructive proposals on economic reform, energy, climate change and European defence.
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NATO, Russia and European security
working paper by Tomas Valasek, November 2009
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Countries in Europe's east and north worry that Moscow is blundering into a confrontation with NATO. They have begun demanding that the alliance start preparing for a possible conflict. But are they right to be concerned? Would military preparations not make Russia more suspicious of NATO? And should the alliance not focus on the war in Afghanistan? Tomas Valasek argues that allies in Central and Northern Europe have good reasons to worry. And he cautions that unless NATO takes measures to reassure the government concerned about Russia, the alliance will have trouble 'resetting' relations with Moscow and maintaining public support for the war in Afghanistan.
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