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Germany opens Pandora's box
briefing note by Franklin Miller, George Robertson and Kori Schake, February 2010
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In November 2009, the German government called for the removal of all US nuclear weapons from Germany. But Germany should not claim protection from NATO's nuclear umbrella without sharing the risks associated with hosting nuclear weapons. In addition, removing tactical nuclear weapons would destabilise the alliance: Turkey could feel compelled to develop its own nuclear weapons, while some NATO members in Central Europe would feel even more threatened by Russia. Nevertheless the German proposal could have some merit if it encouraged NATO and Russia to start talks on reducing their tactical nuclear arsenals.
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Last chance for Lisbon: Ireland's EU referendum
briefing note by Hugo Brady, September 2009
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Ireland will hold a second referendum on the Treaty of Lisbon on October 2nd. Most opinion polls in the run-up to the vote show that a majority of Irish voters now back the EU treaty they rejected in June 2008. But the result of the referendum is far from certain: the public mood is volatile amidst a deep recession and many voters remain unconvinced and confused about the treaty's merits. The poll re-run will have implications far beyond Ireland's shores. A Yes vote would allow the EU to improve the way it makes decisions, particularly in the implementation of foreign policy, and put a decade of internal navel-gazing behind it. A No vote would lead to recrimination, distract from urgent policy priorities and mean that the Europeans will have to put up with the current Nice treaty for a generation.
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The latest round of settlement talks on the divided island of Cyprus will reach their decisive phase later this year or in early 2010. In this new CER briefing note, Lord Hannay contemplates the costs of failure of such talks, which could range from bad blood between Ankara and Athens to collateral damage to EU-NATO relations. He cautions, however, against expecting quick process, given that the success of the Cyprus talks has become intertwined with progress in EU-Turkey accession negotiations. The best thing the EU can do to help a Cyprus settlement is to keep its relationship with Turkey moving forward.
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The Communist Party is increasing its sway over the political system. Economic nationalism is on the rise, with foreign investors facing new obstacles. And Chinese foreign policy has become more assertive. In this CER briefing note, Charles Grant asks whether the growth of authoritarianism is is a short-term blip or a long-term trend. He notes that the pragmatism of China's leaders and the interests of the economy will constrain the actions of hard-liners. But he worries that the increase of nationalist sentiment and role of the state in the economy are stoking serious problems for the future.
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A painful recession in Europe, uncertain prospects for the Lisbon treaty, a looming gas crisis in Ukraine and a lame-duck Commission are some of the challenges that the Swedish EU presidency will have to deal with in the second half of 2009. The government in Stockholm has listed climate change, asylum policy and migration, EU enlargement and co-operation in the Baltic Sea area among its priorities. Although Swedish management of the EU will compare favourably with the lacklustre performance of the Czech Republic, the perceived success of the new presidency will largely depend on developments that Stockholm cannot influence, as this briefing note argues.
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Spain punches below its weight in EU policy-making. Since Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero became prime minister, five years ago, Spanish influence in the EU has diminished. In this briefing note, Charles Grant asks whether Spain's recent entry into the G20 summits, the election of Barack Obama and the forthcoming Spanish presidency of the EU are likely to strengthen its role. But he concludes that Spain is unlikely to match the influence of Britain, France or Germany.
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New Europe and the economic crisis
briefing note by Katinka Barysch, February 2009
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The EU's new member-states have been hit hard by the credit crunch and collapsing export markets. The Central and East Europeans sense that their post-Cold War growth model – consisting of liberalisation and EU integration – is broken. The risk is not so much political upheaval but policy procrastination. The new members have to keep preparing for ageing populations and shift towards a more diversified, innovation-based and climate-friendly growth model.
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