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The world is becoming increasingly multipolar. Will that mean democratic poles lining up against autocracies, in two competing camps? Or will all the leading powers support multilateral institutions? The authors argue that a strong and successful EU can help to ensure that multilateralism prevails over balance-of-power politics. They set out a plan for a stronger European defence policy. And they outline EU strategies for the Middle East, Russia and China.
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| Turkey – located between big energy producers and the EU market – is crucial for Europe’s energy security. However, plans for the Nabucco pipeline as an alternative to Russian gas supplies are in trouble. The fact that the EU and Turkey are negotiating about accession seems to hinder rather than help their co-operation in energy. In this new CER essay, Katinka Barysch suggests a way forward. |
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The election of a new US president in 2008 offers an opportunity to repair US-European relations. But, as Kori Schake argues in this essay, both sides must guard against high expectations. Europe will expect a post-Bush US to take a multilateral approach to foreign policy. However, the US is likely to continue acting as an exceptional power, sometimes unbound by international law. Similarly, the new US administration may expect the EU to make a bigger contribution to sorting out the world’s trouble spots. But it will be disappointed: most Europeans believe that the Iraq war has vindicated their soft-power approach and they are not going to spend more on defence.
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| Surveys show that a majority of EU citizens are against Turkish membership. This matters since France, Austria and probably other countries too will hold a referendum on Turkish accession. But it would be wrong to descend into gloom. A more detailed analysis of public opinion on Turkey shows big national differences. And it suggests that many voters are prepared to change their minds on Turkey. |
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| Many EU politicians and their voters are unsure about the merits of Turkish accession. Europe’s entrepreneurs are not. They are showing confidence by investing billions into the fast-growing Turkish economy, partly because they expect that EU accession will continue to change the country for the better. But although accession would guarantee further improvements in the Turkish business environment, few EU business leaders support it openly. This CER essay asks why. |
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Britain's membership of the EU strengthens London as a global financial centre, argues City Minister, Ed Balls. The UK should engage actively with the EU, to ensure that its financial regulation is proportionate, flexible, and implemented effectively. Similar principles should apply to European action in other areas, such as the single market, climate change and the EU budget. Ed Balls argues for a 'hard-headed pro-Europeanism'. This means recognising that Britain is stronger by co-operating with partners in the EU to meet shared challenges, but having the confidence to stand firm where UK national interests would be damaged, and argue the case where Europe risks taking the wrong course.
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The world in 2020 will not see a new world order, but a competition between four ideas of how the world should be run: an American world striving for a balance of power that favours democracy; a 'Eurosphere' whose support for democracy is coupled with a belief in international institutions; an 'axis of sovereignty' led by China and Russia that sees multilateral institutions as protection from western interference; and a Middle Eastern 'faith zone', defined neither by democracy nor the rule of law. This essay sketches the outlines of the 'quadripolar world' that is awaiting us.
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