The election of Barack Obama in November of 2008 has changed US-European relations for the better. Obama was the preferred candidate of most Europeans and his excellent global reputation will improve America’s as well as (by association) Europe’s image in the world. But Obama also poses a challenge for the transatlantic relationship: Europe and the US will not be able to blame future disagreements on clashing personalities. The expectations are high that the two sides will resume the sort of robust co-operation they enjoyed until the fallout over the Iraq war in 2003. Europe will also watch carefully if the US is turning from its traditional alliance with Europe towards a new strategic relationship with China.   

Obama has quickly addressed Europe’s greatest complaints about the recent US policy: he ordered the prison in Guantanamo Bay closed, laid out the timetable for US withdrawal from Iraq, offered to engage in direct talks with Iran, and launched a charm offensive towards Russia. But multiple challenges lie ahead for the transatlantic relationship. On climate change, Europe would like the US to agree more sweeping cuts in greenhouse gases than any US politician is willing to contemplate. On Iran, Obama will want the Europeans to join the US in imposing tough sanctions should the US offer of engagement fail but some EU governments have reservations. In Afghanistan, the US would like Europe to send many more troops than Europe is ready to offer. And while the two sides have co-operated reasonably well on diffusing the economic crisis, intra-European divisions (on the size of the fiscal stimulus and on changes to financial regulation) have weakened its ability to shape the US and global response. Meanwhile, the Obama government has set out to form a closer political and economic relationship with China, raising fears in Europe that such ‘G-2’ could further reduce Europe’s influence in the world.

US-European differences should not be overstated. The US and Europe are far closer to one another on climate change than to any other key partner in the negotiations, and they are united in demanding that China and India cut more greenhouse gases than they have offered to so far. On Iran, the Europeans have joined the US (as well as China and Russia) in several rounds of UN Security Council sanctions. Iran’s violent crackdown on demonstrators disputing the results of the presidential elections results in June 2009 have made the Europeans more willing to support a tough line on Iran.

But Obama’s presidency will be a test of sorts for the transatlantic alliance. In terms of personalities, the 2009 line-up – with Atlanticists in charge in Germany and France, and Obama in the White House – is ‘as good as is gets’.  Any future crisis in transatlantic relations will cast doubt on whether the Europeans and Americans share enough common interest, and enough desire to work out the differences, to remain true allies. The CER’s warning from 2007, that the US and Europe could be headed for a crisis of high expectations when George W Bush leaves, remain as relevant as ever.