Britain & other member-states

An effective UK trade policy and a customs union are compatible

Sam Lowe
29 November 2018
If the UK enters into a customs union with the European Union it will be able to operate an effective trade policy, but the political focus would need to shift away from headline-grabbing, comprehensive free trade agreements.

What happens if Parliament rejects May's Brexit deal?

16 November 2018
Theresa May's deal on Brexit is heading for defeat in Parliament. That could lead to no deal, the negotiation of a different deal, a general election, a second referendum – or MPs swallowing the package at the second attempt.

Brexit deal done – now for the hard part

15 November 2018
Theresa May’s Brexit deal offers some crumbs to Tory hardliners, the DUP and soft Brexiteers. But if the deal passes through parliament, a UK-EU customs union is likely.

Why a woolly political declaration might help Theresa May get her Brexit deal through Parliament

Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska, Sam Lowe
05 November 2018
The political declaration on the post-Brexit relationship between the EU and UK will probably be vague and lack legal authority. This could work to Theresa May's advantage.

One year since Macron's Sorbonne speech: Plus ça change?

25 October 2018
In September 2017, newly-elected French President Macron laid out his grand vision for relaunching the EU. He has not achieved much so far, but Macron remains the greatest hope for driving much-needed reforms.

The cost of Brexit to June 2018

30 September 2018
The British economy is 2.5 per cent smaller than it would be if Remain had won in 2016, according to the latest update of the CER's cost of Brexit model.

Italy and the EU: The logic of confrontation

28 September 2018
Four months after being sworn in, Italy’s League-Five Star coalition government has set a more confrontational tone in its relations with the European Union.

The EU should not fret about Singapore-on-Thames

28 September 2018
At the Salzburg EU informal summit on September 20th, EU leaders read the last rites on Theresa May’s Chequers plan.

After Salzburg: How to salvage the Brexit negotiations

Sam Lowe, John Springford
24 September 2018
Although EU leaders delivered the coup de grace to Theresa May’s Chequers plan in Salzburg avoiding no deal is still possible, but it will require some tough choices on the Irish backstop. 

The accidental prime minister: What Spain's new government means for the EU

26 July 2018
Spain’s new government might not last long. But it could act as a catalyst for progress on the thorny issues of migration, eurozone reform and Catalonia.

The EU's problem with May's plan for Brexit

20 July 2018
The EU doesn’t like the UK’s plan for Brexit and says one cannot be in just parts of the single market. But if May shifts her red lines, the EU response could be more positive.

Dead or alive? A UK-US trade deal

Sam Lowe, Beth Oppenheim
20 July 2018
The Chequers proposal would likely come at the cost of a transatlantic trade deal, but Theresa May is right to prioritise ties with the EU.

Time to let the rule of law in Poland have its day in court

Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska
19 July 2018
Poland’s government has not reversed its controversial judicial reforms, despite EU political pressure. It is time to take the dispute out of the hands of politicians and allow the European Court of Justice to have a say about the rule of law in Poland.

Inching our way towards Jersey

Sam Lowe
11 July 2018
The EU will probably reject Theresa May’s Chequers compromise. Rather than confronting the EU on its fundamental principles, the UK should build upon the foundations of a customs union.

Moving on after Galileo – lessons (to be) learnt

28 June 2018
The EU and the UK have not been able to come to an agreement over Britain’s participation in the Galileo programme.

What's the cost of Brexit so far?

23 June 2018
New analysis by the CER – which we will update quarterly – estimates that the UK economy is 2.1 per cent smaller as a result of the vote to leave the EU.

Plugging in the British: Completing the circuit

22 June 2018
Post-Brexit internal and external security co-operation arrangements seem as hard for the EU and UK to agree on as trade. Other third countries’ relationships with the EU provide models.

Is Macron becoming isolated in Europe?

13 June 2018
Macron thinks the EU is not viable without radical reform. His priority is to reshape the eurozone, but Germany is blocking his bolder ideas. He risks isolation in Europe, which could weaken him at home.