Brexit’s economic damage is getting real

The Centre for European Reform’s (CER) John Springford has taken the Born-led model a step further. The CER approach uses not just GDP, but also other attributes of 22 advanced economies — including the inflation rate, openness to trade, investment ratio and how well-educated the population is — to create a doppelganger UK that most closely matches the country’s economy before the referendum. Based on that methodology, the CER puts the cost of Brexit at 2.5% of GDP.

“If Britain had voted to Remain, our analysis suggests that the UK government deficit would largely have been eliminated by Brexit day” on March 29, Springford told me. “If Theresa May fails to land a deal by then, the costs to both the economy and the public finances will be even greater.”