Tighter immigration rules could hit UK net zero mission, report warns

A report by the Centre for European Reform (CER), calculates that more than half of the foreign-born workers doing “green jobs” in the UK – 260,000 out of 465,000 – would not have been allowed in under the new rules.

Ministers are relying on employers to raise wages and provide more training in order to attract domestic workers into these roles, but John Springford, an associate fellow at the CER, said that could push up the costs to consumers of going green.

“If labour shortages raise the cost of decarbonising buildings, fewer people will insulate their homes or buy heat pumps,” he said.

Using Office for National Statistics data, the CER defined a green job as one in which more than a third of the worker’s time is spent on green tasks. Many of these are in the construction sector, given the need to retrofit homes with low-carbon technologies, for example.

The report also suggests construction jobs more generally may be difficult to fill under the new visa regime, casting doubt on the government’s target to build 1.5m homes by the end of the parliament.

“Construction is labour-intensive and has a lot of employee turnover, because the work is physical and seasonal. Given that the government’s aim is to expand housebuilding and decarbonise buildings concurrently, the sector is most at risk of labour shortages as a result of the government’s immigration proposals,” the report says.

...The CER said that using a shortage list as a safety valve could be problematic because the higher salary threshold elsewhere means migrants in the sectors with shortages are unlikely to be able to shift into other jobs, leaving them vulnerable to exploitation by the employer who sponsors their visa.

“The government should keep an eye on labour shortages in occupations that are crucial for its net zero and housebuilding missions, and relax visa rules if needed,” Springford said. “But offering exemptions to the rules for specific occupations is risky.”