Taking the Pulse: Does France's political crisis weaken Europe's geopolitical hand?

France's political permacrisis is bad news for European rearmament efforts. As long as there is political instability, discussions on the country's budget, including defense allocations, will continue to be held hostage. The opposition parties have no incentive to work with any new government. They believe the prolonged instability increases their chances in the 2027 presidential elections.

Like last year, emergency legislation can roll over the 2025 budget into 2026, but this won't allow the much-needed increases in defense spending announced by President Macron in July.

France, like most EU countries, urgently needs to invest more in defense to respond to a worsening security environment. The spending limits for 2026 had earmarked €6.7 billion ($7.8 billion) for defense, an extra investment of €3.5 billion ($4 billion) over pre-existing allocations to help modernize the French armed forces and fund capability gaps including ammunition stock, drones, electronic warfare capabilities, and more. The proposed increase may not be sufficient – but it is necessary. Without it, Europe's rearmament efforts will take a hit.

France's heavily constrained fiscal situation had limited its role to expressing grand visions for Europe without the funds to put them into action. That this will continue so long as there is a political crisis is bad news for the EU.

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