Macroeconomics & the euro

The eurozone's grand bargain

The eurozone's grand bargain: Political pain without economic gain?

Philip Whyte
01 April 2011
Ever since the eurozone crisis broke out in late 2009, European leaders have sought to reconcile two mutually incompatible objectives: the need to restore market confidence in the zone's indebted periphery; and the unbending refusal of creditor countries in the core to turn the zone into a 'transfer union'.
Is Germany really rebalancing?

Is Germany really rebalancing?

01 February 2011
Germany has rightly been criticised for its dependence on exports and its huge trade surpluses. In normal times, when economies are growing healthily, trade imbalances pose less of a problem.
Bulletin issue 76

Issue 76 - 2011

Charles Grant, Katinka Barysch, Sir Julian Priestley
28 January 2011
Can Greece be saved?

Can Greece be saved?

Katinka Barysch
20 January 2011
Will Greece have to restructure its debt? Among most West European economists and investors, this now seems to be a foregone conclusion.
Euro crisis: In defence of investors

Euro crisis: In defence of investors

17 January 2011
The eurozone’s fiscal position is better than the US and UK, and the crisis-hit members of the currency union are doing more to strengthen their public finances than either of these countries.
Reflections on Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa and the euro

Reflections on Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa and the euro

13 January 2011
At the end of last year, Europe lost Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa, an eminent central banker and economist, and one of the founding fathers of the euro.
Eurozone: Time for damage limitation

Eurozone: Time for damage limitation

09 December 2010
Time is running out to prevent the eurozone crisis from imperilling Europe's banking system and with it the integrity of the currency union. It is beholden on policy-makers to minimise the economic (and hence political costs) to the EU.
The eurozone enters a critical phase

The eurozone enters a critical phase

01 December 2010
On November 21st Ireland accepted financial support totalling around €90 billion from the EU and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). There was an awful inevitability about this outcome.
The next five years of the euro crisis

The next five years of the euro crisis: Five key questions

01 December 2010
Will the euro break up?
The euro crisis is rooted in structural imbalances that even on an optimistic scenario will endure for years. Germany has a current account surplus and weak domestic demand, while Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain - after years of profligacy - suffer from current account deficits...
Why Berlin won't back down on euro reform

Why Berlin won't back down on euro reform

Katinka Barysch
19 November 2010
The German plan for a eurozone insolvency procedure has spooked the markets and drawn political fire.
Euro

Eurozone policy-makers are playing with fire

15 November 2010
There is an awful inevitability about the latest instalment of the eurozone crisis, which looks highly likely to culminate in Ireland being forced to seek a bailout from the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF).
Europe dances to Germany's tune

Europe dances to Germany's tune

03 November 2010
For much of this year, the response of European leaders to the eurozone crisis has been hesitant and fractious. But when the European Council met in Brussels on October 28th and 29th, the EU appeared to be acting with greater purpose and sense of direction.
Why Germany is not a model for the eurozone

Why Germany is not a model for the eurozone

Philip Whyte
22 October 2010
Many Europeans believe that confidence in the eurozone is best restored by turning the region into a larger version of present-day Germany. However, Germany is not the world-beating economy of current myth.
What currency wars mean for the eurozone

What currency wars mean for the eurozone

15 October 2010
The dollar has now fallen to $1.40 against the euro. This is still below the low of almost $1.60 that it reached in the middle in July 2008, but it represents a steep decline from under $1.20 in early June. Moreover, the US currency is likely to weaken further.
Divisions remain over euro reform

Divisions remain over euro reform

Katinka Barysch
08 October 2010
Europeans agree that the management of the euro must be improved to prevent future crises, or deal with them better if and when they happen.
The political consequences of the euro crisis

The political consequences of the euro crisis

Katinka Barysch
01 October 2010
The eurozone crisis is changing the way the EU works. It is reinforcing a number of trends that had already been visible over the last decade or so: a shift towards a Union in which governments are in the driving seat, large countries matter more than small ones, and more decisions are taken by subsets of member-states.
The EU's new supervisory architecture

The EU's new supervisory architecture - evolution or revolution?

Philip Whyte
01 October 2010
In early September EU finance ministers approved the Commission's proposals for reforming the EU's supervisory architecture for financial services.