Britain & EU member-states
The cost of Brexit to September 2018
27 January 2019
The UK economy is 2.3 per cent smaller than it would be if Britain had voted to remain in the European Union.
Bulletin Issue 124 - February/March 2019
25 January 2019
- How to combat Europe's economic slowdown, Christian Odendahl
- Trump's foreign policy: Two years of living dangerously, Ian Bond
- Is Spain simply late to Europe's populist party?, Camino Mortera-Martinez
Is Spain simply late to Europe's populist party?
25 January 2019
Few expected Spain to join Europe’s least exclusive party, the one bringing together illiberal forces. But Vox’s rise begs the question: is Spain simply late to the populist bash?
After the meaningful vote: What are Theresa May's options?
16 January 2019
Theresa May can only win a parliamentary majority for her withdrawal agreement by agreeing to negotiate a softer relationship with the EU.
Conference report: The politics of slow growth in Europe
19 December 2018
A new CER report summarises its 2018 Ditchley Park conference, which brought together 50 leading economists to discuss 'The politics of slow growth in Europe'.
Brexit and services: How deep can the UK-EU relationship go?
06 December 2018
Even if the UK entered into an ambitious and comprehensive free trade agreement with the EU, leaving the single market would mean new restrictions on British services exports.
Bulletin Issue 123 - December 2018/January 2019
29 November 2018
- An effective UK trade policy and a customs union are compatible, Sam Lowe
- China and Europe: Buying hearts and minds?, Ian Bond
- What is Europe doing to fight disinformation?, Camino Mortera-Martinez
An effective UK trade policy and a customs union are compatible
29 November 2018
If the UK enters into a customs union with the European Union it will be able to operate an effective trade policy, but the political focus would need to shift away from headline-grabbing, comprehensive free trade agreements.
What happens if Parliament rejects May's Brexit deal?
16 November 2018
Theresa May's deal on Brexit is heading for defeat in Parliament. That could lead to no deal, the negotiation of a different deal, a general election, a second referendum – or MPs swallowing the package at the second attempt.
Brexit deal done – now for the hard part
15 November 2018
Theresa May’s Brexit deal offers some crumbs to Tory hardliners, the DUP and soft Brexiteers. But if the deal passes through parliament, a UK-EU customs union is likely.
Why a woolly political declaration might help Theresa May get her Brexit deal through Parliament
05 November 2018
The political declaration on the post-Brexit relationship between the EU and UK will probably be vague and lack legal authority. This could work to Theresa May's advantage.
One year since Macron's Sorbonne speech: Plus ça change?
25 October 2018
In September 2017, newly-elected French President Macron laid out his grand vision for relaunching the EU. He has not achieved much so far, but Macron remains the greatest hope for driving much-needed reforms.
The cost of Brexit to June 2018
30 September 2018
The British economy is 2.5 per cent smaller than it would be if Remain had won in 2016, according to the latest update of the CER's cost of Brexit model.
The EU should not fret about Singapore-on-Thames
28 September 2018
At the Salzburg EU informal summit on September 20th, EU leaders read the last rites on Theresa May’s Chequers plan.
Bulletin Issue 122 - October/November 2018
28 September 2018
- The EU should not fret about Singapore-on-Thames, John Springford
- Moving Balkan borders: Peace plan or Pandora's box?, Ian Bond
- Italy and the EU: The logic of confrontation, Luigi Scazzieri
Italy and the EU: The logic of confrontation
28 September 2018
Four months after being sworn in, Italy’s League-Five Star coalition government has set a more confrontational tone in its relations with the European Union.
After Salzburg: How to salvage the Brexit negotiations
24 September 2018
Although EU leaders delivered the coup de grace to Theresa May’s Chequers plan in Salzburg avoiding no deal is still possible, but it will require some tough choices on the Irish backstop.
The accidental prime minister: What Spain's new government means for the EU
26 July 2018
Spain’s new government might not last long. But it could act as a catalyst for progress on the thorny issues of migration, eurozone reform and Catalonia.
The EU's problem with May's plan for Brexit
20 July 2018
The EU doesn’t like the UK’s plan for Brexit and says one cannot be in just parts of the single market. But if May shifts her red lines, the EU response could be more positive.
Dead or alive? A UK-US trade deal
20 July 2018
The Chequers proposal would likely come at the cost of a transatlantic trade deal, but Theresa May is right to prioritise ties with the EU.