Research

Here’s a secret about Kosovo’s independence – it is not real; not yet anyway. Without outside help, Kosovo would not function today. But at the same time, the new EU mission will have to justify its presence in the eyes of the Kosovo people.

Fear the unknown unknowns, the former US defence minister Donald Rumsfeld once said (before falling victim to his own adage). There is a lesson in his words for the framers of the Lisbon treaty.

For the rest of Europe, the worst thing about Poland’s Law and Justice government, led by Jaroslaw Kaczynski, was its foreign policy. His approach towards Russia, Germany and (sometimes) the EU – supported by his twin brother, President Lech Kaczynski – was confrontational.

To dismiss history is usually a mistake. But in one respect, at least, history weighs down on Europe in a manner that crushes its promise and potential. After a dismal century in which the continent was torn apart by men with vision and certainties, a reaction was inevitable.

Ireland's voters have a crucial decision to make on the future of the EU – in May or June this year – when they vote in the only referendum on the Treaty of Lisbon.

The US caused a small earthquake in the foreign policy circles when it announced, in November 2007, that it believes that Iran is no longer producing nuclear weapons.

As far as the rest of Europe was concerned, the worst thing about Poland’s Law and Justice government, led by Jaroslaw Kaczynski (and supported by his twin brother, President Lech Kaczynski), was its foreign policy. The twins’ attitude towards Russia, Germany and – sometimes – the EU was confrontational. The Civic Platform government that took over in October is shifting Poland’s foreign policy. Its ministers often speak to the Germans without reminding them of the war. More controversially, the government is trying to build bridges with Russia. Moscow has lifted its ban on meat exports from Poland, while Warsaw has consulted the Russians about the Bush administration’s plans to deploy missile defence systems in Poland. Prime Minister Donald Tusk is much less enthusiastic than the Kaczynskis about missile defence

President Sarkozy has recently said that France may re-integrate into NATO's military command. This abrupt change in French policy opens doors to a much-needed improvement in EU-NATO relations.

The world is becoming increasingly multipolar. Will that mean democratic poles lining up against autocracies, in two competing camps? Or will all the leading powers support multilateral institutions?