Press
‘A double whammy’: Strong euro compounds EU exporters’ tariff torment
20 May 2025
EurActiv
“It's a double whammy for European exporters to the United States, [in] that they get hit not only with tariffs, but that the normal offset of an appreciating dollar exchange rate to the euro is not kicking in – in fact, the opposite is happening,” said Sander Tordoir, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform.
How has Britain’s economy fared since Brexit? The five charts underpinning the UK-EU summit
19 May 2025
The Guardian
According to estimates by John Springford, an associate fellow at the Centre for European Reform, the demands of the UK and EU suggest the reset could boost Britain’s GDP by a limited amount, of between 0.3% and 0.7%. Far less than the OBR’s estimated 4% long-term reduction in GDP.
Reeves hopes hat-trick of deals shows Britain is open for business
19 May 2025
The Guardian
John Springford of the Centre for European Reform, whose analysis suggests the UK economy is approximately 5% smaller than it would otherwise have been as a result of Brexit, suggests that the government’s 0.3% estimate still looks relatively generous.He recently forecast that an SPS agreement would add less than 0.1%, for example, against the 0.2% upside modelled by the government.
ITV News: Government says EU reset is a 'huge boost for growth' - does the claim stack up?
19 May 2025
“I think the price of goods will come down a bit, certainly in the food that we import from the EU and we might get a bit of a better range, but I don't think it's really going to make a really noticeable difference to people's shopping bills,” John Springford, an associate fellow at the CER told ITV News.
How much Starmer’s Brexit deal might cost you
19 May 2025
The Telegraph
Aslak Berg, a research fellow at the Centre for European Reform, said: “Ten to 12 per cent of that is a reasonable estimate.”This would mean a rough contribution of around £15.7 million from Britain to the EU agency every year.
EU certificates deal could boost UK exports by a quarter, study finds
18 May 2025
Financial Times
John Springford, of the Centre for European Reform think-tank, said the decision was a question of “pure politics” rather than legal barriers, and that the potential benefits for both sides were significant. “It’s strange that the EU is willing to allow the US to judge the conformity of goods to EU standards, but not the UK, despite its continued alignment with EU rules in the goods sector,” he added.
'Our business needs Irish Sea border reset'
18 May 2025
BBC News
The Centre for European Reform (CER), a think tank, said that an agri-food deal would not be of "great macroeconomic significance" for the UK as a whole but that NI would be a "major beneficiary".It added: "The closer UK regulations come to those of the EU, the less is the need for border controls on goods crossing the Irish Sea from Great Britain to Northern Ireland."
The £25bn-a-year prize at stake in Starmer’s Brexit reset talks with EU
18 May 2025
The Independent
The long-awaited youth mobility scheme alone could boost GDP by 0.45 per cent in the next decade, according to a separate study from the Centre for European Reform. On youth mobility, John Springford, associate fellow at the Centre for European Reform, noted: “The youth mobility scheme would raise GDP by bringing more young EU workers into the UK labour force – although the final numbers will depend on how many are allowed to come and how long they can stay for.”
Londres y Bruselas trabajan contra reloj para que su primera cumbre bilateral sea la imagen de superación del Brexit
17 May 2025
El Pais
“El triunfo de Reform UK ―la reencarnación del Partido del Brexit― en las elecciones locales del 1 de mayo va a aumentar la precaución extrema del Gobierno laborista a la hora de dar pasos que pueden ser vistos como demasiado proeuropeos. Y el ascenso de Reform UK también ha tenido su efecto sobre la visión que la UE tiene del Reino Unido: algunos líderes europeos se muestran reticentes a lograr una reconciliación amplia con Londres, ante el temor de que en cuatro años se acabe asentando en Westminster [como se denomina al Parlamento británico] un Gobierno fuertemente euroescéptico”, han señalado Aslak Berg, Ian Bond y Charles Grant, del influyente Centre for European Reform, en su informe previo a la cumbre.
The critical weaknesses in Starmer’s EU defence pact
17 May 2025
The Telegraph
“Without question, signature of the pact at the summit is desirable, but in the near future it will not create the single European defence market, including the UK, that some member-states would like to see,” the Centre for European Reform, a think-tank, has said in a report ahead of the summit.
Why Europe came to regret its ‘crippling’ nuclear power shutdown
16 May 2025
The Telegraph
“Germany obviously switched off its plants, and I think in parts of the political spectrum, that’s now considered a mistake, because it’s seen as a reliable source of energy,” says Sander Tordoir, the chief economist at the Centre for European Reform.
Why the EU’s defence pact with the UK makes sense
16 May 2025
EurActiv
“Some people in the UK said Brexit gives us a chance to have a different foreign policy in Europe, rather than always be aligned with France and Germany, but nobody says this anymore,” Ian Bond, deputy director at the Centre for European Reform, said....“NATO does a limited amount of work in the defence industrial space and defence industry co-operation – but if the EU executive incentivises defence industrial cooperation, it makes sense for the UK to try to stay as engaged to that as can be,” Bond said.
EU offers Britain truce in ‘sausage war’ – but it comes at a cost
14 May 2025
The Telegraph
Aslak Berg, a trade expert for the Centre for European Reform think-tank, warned the deal would mean Brussels demanding further alignment in the future.He said: “Once you say we are going to do dynamic alignment, we’re going to accept oversight in some form by the European court, that obviously raises the question ‘why not do this for other sectors?’“Maybe there are other sectors, maybe energy, electricity, where the same exception could be made.”
How Putin could humiliate NATO and send 600,000 troops to attack alliance's northern flank in lightning offensive
14 May 2025
The Daily Mail
Ian Bond, deputy director of the Centre for European Reform, told the BBC that even if a full ceasefire is agreed in Ukraine, it is unlikely Putin's aggression would be abated.'Nobody in their right mind wants to think that a European war is around the corner again. But the reality is an increasing number of European intelligence officials have been telling us that,' he said.'Whether this is coming in three years or five years or ten years, what they are saying is the idea that peace in Europe is going to last forever is now a thing of the past.'
Already underwhelmed
13 May 2025
Politico Brussels Playbook
“Backward-looking dogma and unnecessary red lines may result in the summit underachieving,” warn Aslak Berg, Ian Bond and Charles Grant of the Centre for European Reform think-tank.
The EU’s mysterious Russian gas plan — and what it means for US LNG exports
13 May 2025
Financial Times
“The legally most rock-solid way to ban Russia’s remaining energy imports would be sanctions, but that route is barred due to it requiring unanimous approval by all EU governments,” Elisabetta Cornago, senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform, told Energy Source, noting that the pro-Russian governments Hungary and Slovakia would block any sanctions.
Political bans may be legal, but they are unlikely to save democracy
12 May 2025
Encompass
In recent months, several far-right politicians have been banned from political competition. The courts in Romania banned two extremist candidates from running in presidential elections.
Keir Starmer faces business backlash over UK migration curbs
12 May 2025
Financial Times
John Springford, an economist at the Centre for European Reform, said Starmer’s suggestion that high levels of migration had contributed to stagnating output was “flat wrong”, noting that growth had been held back by high energy costs and Brexit. “The majority of economists think migration has a positive impact on GDP per capita,” he said.
How should the EU interpret the trade agreement between the US and the UK?
12 May 2025
Euronews
"I think it [a US trade deal with the UK],will cause a certain amount of irritation in Brussels. And it's not because there's a direct conflict between the EU and the UK. It won't jeopardise the relationship between the EU and the UK. But it does set a bad precedent," says Aslak Berg, a researcher at the Centre for European Reform.
Forget the United States and India – the deal that Sir Keir needs is with Europe
11 May 2025
The Observer
Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, argues in a forthcoming paper that the Starmer government’s “ambitions are limited, which gave the EU an excuse to lower its own ambitions”.