Press

Même les experts pro-européens le reconnaissent. C’est le cas de Sam Lowe, un spécialiste des relations commerciales au Centre for European Reform, un groupe de réflexion. « En cas de “no deal”, les opposants au Brexit vont subir un contrecoup. Ce ne sera pas l’apocalypse. On trouvera à manger. »

Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, a think-tank, has warned the threat of future regulatory divergence between Britain and the EU could complicate the immediate task of brokering a Brexit deal, including arrangements to avoid the return to hard Irish border.“Johnson says he wants a minimal, Canada-style free trade agreement, with pronounced regulatory divergence from the 27 [other EU member states],” Mr Grant wrote.“That would increase the regulatory gap between Ireland and the UK, thus making the EU even keener to maintain some sort of . . . way of avoiding the need for controls on or near the Irish border.”

“This is economic madness and at the same time, expected. The balanced budget has such a high political significance that no one dares to go against it. Not even for the climate, at a time of negative interest rates,” said Christian Odendahl, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform, a think tank.

Given that she was appointed with the support of conservative governments in central and Eastern Europe, Mrs. von der Leyen made a conscious decision to alienate left-wing rather than right-wing politicians, said Camino Mortera-Martinez, a senior research fellow with the Centre for European Reform, a London-based think tank.“She’s much less a compromise figure than people thought,” Ms. Mortera-Martinez said.

Sam Lowe of the Centre for European Reform believes there is time to get a deal agreed by the October 17 summit. “The EU has already proposed the kind of relationship that Mr Johnson is aiming for. It is the initial proposal they put forward for a Northern Ireland-only backstop. If there is to be a deal, that’s what would have to be on the table,” he says.

Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, nevertheless believes Johnson could benefit from a change of mood in Paris and Berlin following positive visits to both cities last month. But he warns this could take time to permeate through to Barnier’s team in Brussels. “There seems to be some difference of emphasis between the national capitals, which are more optimistic and believe Boris may well be serious about getting a deal, and the officials based in Brussels, who have experienced Frost’s hard red lines and uncompromising stance and are more sceptical that a deal is feasible,” Grant said.

Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, said that a deal by October 31 was now “more likely than I had thought”.