CER/ECT project on Climate Action in the EU of 2035: Climate implications of EU enlargement scenarios

In the aftermath of Russia’s full aggression on Ukraine, what had been a long-dormant EU accession process has swiftly accelerated. Today, there are eight candidate countries to access the European Union: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, Türkiye and Ukraine. The prospect of a large wave of EU enlargement by 2030 could be slightly optimistic, but the path towards enlargement is set, and today’s geopolitical context appears to be more favourable towards it than at the beginning of the previous Commission term. If not all of the above candidates, it is fair to expect that many of them will be joining the EU in the next decade.

This project assesses how EU enlargement would affect the current EU climate and energy policy architecture. We also consider the impact of enlargement on some cross-cutting aspects of EU functioning – the budget and the voting process – that would have implications for EU policy-making as a whole and, as such, for the climate agenda as well. To support ECF’s foresight work on climate implications of EU enlargement scenarios, we have developed a series of four insights covering the following issues:

1. The EU budget in a larger Union: What future configuration for EU financial support of climate action? What future for the Common Agricultural Policy?
2. New institutions for a larger EU: Does EU enlargement require voting reform?
3. How can a larger Union build a decarbonised EU energy system?
4. How should the EU Emissions Trading System evolve in a larger EU?

These articles have been supported by the European Climate Foundation. Responsibility for the information and views set out in the articles lies with the author. The European Climate Foundation cannot be held responsible for any use which may be made of the information contained or expressed therein.