Research

“British exporters have been seriously hit by the bureaucracy they face trying to get food and plants and animals across the frontier into the EU,” Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, told Euronews.“So I think the deal on plant animal health is actually quite important. Not macroeconomically significant, but important for one sector of the British economy.”

John Springford of the Centre for European Reform, whose analysis suggests the UK economy is approximately 5% smaller than it would otherwise have been as a result of Brexit, suggests that the government’s 0.3% estimate still looks relatively generous.He recently forecast that an SPS agreement would add less than 0.1%, for example, against the 0.2% upside modelled by the government.

"The EU's efforts to increase its defense capabilities and rebuild its defense industry will be hampered if the UK is excluded [from SAFE], while the UK risks painfully slow economic growth during a trade war if it fails to lower trade barriers with the EU," warned Aslak Berg, Ian Bond and Charles Grant of the Centre for European Reform.

Sander Tordoir, Chefökonom des Think Tanks Centre for European Reform, sagt zu The Pioneer: "Trumps chaotische Wirtschaftspolitik und internationale Politikist ein Geschenk für die neue deutsche Bundesregierung."Er glaube nicht, dass der US-Dollar seine Rolle als wichtigste Reservewährung von heute auf morgen verliere, so Tordoir. „Aber Deutschland bietet nun eine wesentliche Alternative.“

John Springford, of the Centre for European Reform think-tank, said the decision was a question of “pure politics” rather than legal barriers, and that the potential benefits for both sides were significant. “It’s strange that the EU is willing to allow the US to judge the conformity of goods to EU standards, but not the UK, despite its continued alignment with EU rules in the goods sector,” he added.

The long-awaited youth mobility scheme alone could boost GDP by 0.45 per cent in the next decade, according to a separate study from the Centre for European Reform. On youth mobility, John Springford, associate fellow at the Centre for European Reform, noted: “The youth mobility scheme would raise GDP by bringing more young EU workers into the UK labour force – although the final numbers will depend on how many are allowed to come and how long they can stay for.”

“El triunfo de Reform UK ―la reencarnación del Partido del Brexit― en las elecciones locales del 1 de mayo va a aumentar la precaución extrema del Gobierno laborista a la hora de dar pasos que pueden ser vistos como demasiado proeuropeos. Y el ascenso de Reform UK también ha tenido su efecto sobre la visión que la UE tiene del Reino Unido: algunos líderes europeos se muestran reticentes a lograr una reconciliación amplia con Londres, ante el temor de que en cuatro años se acabe asentando en Westminster [como se denomina al Parlamento británico] un Gobierno fuertemente euroescéptico”, han señalado Aslak Berg, Ian Bond y Charles Grant, del influyente Centre for European Reform, en su informe previo a la cumbre.

“Germany obviously switched off its plants, and I think in parts of the political spectrum, that’s now considered a mistake, because it’s seen as a reliable source of energy,” says Sander Tordoir, the chief economist at the Centre for European Reform.

Aslak Berg, a trade expert for the Centre for European Reform think-tank, warned the deal would mean Brussels demanding further alignment in the future.He said: “Once you say we are going to do dynamic alignment, we’re going to accept oversight in some form by the European court, that obviously raises the question ‘why not do this for other sectors?’“Maybe there are other sectors, maybe energy, electricity, where the same exception could be made.”