Research

A analista do 'think tank' Centre for European Reform Agata Gostynska-Jakubowska concorda que "um dos destaques destas eleições é a taxa de participação"."A UE conseguiu inverter uma tendência preocupante, registou um aumento do interesse público e isso são boas notícias", até porque "uma elevada abstenção era um dos argumentos recorrentemente utilizados pelos eurocéticos para criticar a alegada falta de legitimidade democrática da UE".

"I think the first thing that we're going to see is a clarification of Labour's position on Brexit," said Camino Mortera-Martinez, a senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform. "They cannot sit on the fence any longer. They might finally become the party of remain and the second referendum."

Bundesbank chief Jens Weidmann shouldn’t succeed European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, and no other German ought to get the job either, according to Centre for European Reform Chief Economist Christian Odendahl. In a report that he quips may cost him his German passport, the Berlin-based analyst argues that Weidmann is “too conservative” for a role that might require bold action, while the region’s most populous country and biggest economy already has enough influence in the running of the euro area.

Senior research fellow Camino Mortera-Martinez from the Centre for European Reform (CER) argues that while those ascendant political groups may not dominate Parliament, their presence will be felt as they apply pressure and complicate EU decision-making."Euroskeptics and populists are going to grow exponentially this time," she says. "You're going to have a much more divided Parliament. It's going to be more difficult to find compromises."

It's also an opportunity for remainers and leavers to express their frustrations, Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska, a senior research fellow at the CER, said in a statement."Prime Minister Theresa May's Conservatives, which had hoped to avoid holding these elections, are facing a drubbing at the hands of Nigel Farage's new Brexit Party," she noted, adding that parties pushing to prevent Brexit are "likely to perform well and keep up the pressure for another referendum on the UK's membership of the EU."

Sam Lowe at the CER calls on the next post-Brexit UK government to seriously rethink its approach to immigration or risk indelibly damaging its roaring service sector. 

Mr Macron has built up the contest as a struggle of good against evil. But having bested Mrs Le Pen in the 2017 French presidential elections, Mr Macron’s LREM is trailing her party this time round. “If he is humiliated, he will be weakened at home, and he will weaken his authority in Europe,” says Charles Grant, the director of the London-based Centre for European Reform (CER).