Research

"The Tory party is fundamentally a eurosceptic party, and any Tory leader who would talk about a referendum would be killed [politically], because that would possibly lead to Brexit not happening," noted Charles Grant, from the Centre for European Reform, a London think tank.
He told EUobserver that the debate was happening now "because there is much more uncertainty on what will happen" at the end of the negotiations with the EU.
"But chances of a vote are extremely small," he said.

Sam Lowe, the trade and Brexit specialist at the Centre for European Reform is among the experts who have also lent credence to the idea. “You would create a Northern Ireland-specific backstop written into the Withdrawal Agreement which is unconditional,” he suggests, “and then combine it with an agreement for a potential all-UK Customs Union that supplements the Irish backstop, but remains conditional on a future agreement.”

“The EU and US tried to bunch together all the trade disputes they had been having for decades [in the TTIP negotiations], but the differences in regulatory culture, different levels of precaution and desire for protection in different sectors proved too high a hurdle,” said Sam Lowe, senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform.

Charles Grant, the director of the Centre for European Reform think-tank, said that following his discussions with French government officials and the commission it was clear that a high bar would be set for an extension. “If there is a very good reason for it, then fine,” he said. “But if it is just because a deal hasn’t been agreed, then that’s not going to be fine. The commission and the French government say they are relaxed about a no deal, although I am not sure they are.”

BREXIT proposals set out in the Government's White Paper have zero chance of being accepted by the European Union in their current form, an economist with the Centre for European Reform think tank has warned. And senior research fellow Sam Lowe has suggested that the facilitated customs partnership idea set out in the document amounts to a "stalking horse" for the UK being part of a straightforward customs union.

The fall in migrant numbers in Italy has given the League party a political boost at home, says analyst Luigi Scazzieri of the Centre for European Reform. "The figures had already dropped very much under the previous government, due to a set of deals Italy had struck with Libya. Indeed, the arrivals had dropped very sharply. Now, of course, the policy of preventing NGO boats from docking has led to an even further decrease. But more than that, it's led to a very strong political win for the League, especially because other European countries have now been forced to take in some of the migrants arriving in Italy," Scazzieri told VOA.