Research

Ian Bond, director of foreign policy for the Centre for European Reform, suspects some of Trump's insistence that NATO isn't doing enough is because he doesn't understand how the alliance works. "NATO is not going to start picking up random people who've been radicalized on the internet and want to blow themselves up," Bond told DW. "You're not going to deploy NATO's rapid-reaction force to a guy with a van and some knives on London Bridge. NATO is not the answer to most of the kinds of terrorism that western countries are now facing."

More worrying, says Sophia Besch of the Centre for European Reform, a think-tank, are the implications of going it alone for wider defence co-operation. In January 2017 Theresa May was criticised when she hinted that Britain’s future defence relations with Europe might be affected by the terms of any Brexit deal. 

Sam Lowe of the Centre for European Reform, said member states were unhappy about being “lectured to” by government and City representatives. “There’s been a bit of arrogance,” he told City A.M. “They know it’s bad but they’re not willing to risk the legal order of the EU and the integrity of single market, which they see as more valuable.”

“In Spain, it’s a localised issue about corruption, but Italy is obviously very serious,” said John Springford of the London-based Centre for European Reform (CER) think-tank. “It is too big to fail in terms of the eurozone, and too big to save.”

Trade expert Sam Lowe from the Centre for European Reform told The Times the UK is playing two games with the EU. He says the government doesn't want to appear too critical of Trump in light of Brexit but the UK is still hiding behind the bloc in the hope of curbing the measures.

"Spain is not going to be as problematic. Sanchez will try to show he can be a leader," said Camino Mortera-Martinez from the Centre for European Reform think-tank. She pointed out that the new Spanish leader saw himself as a caretaker prime minister, whose priorities will be to repeal some of Rajoy's laws on freedom of expression and social rights, and to enable dialogue with Catalonia.

Sam Lowe, a trade expert from the Centre for European Reform, said the UK was playing a double game on EU retaliation. “In public, Britain does not want to be too critical of Donald Trump, not least because of Brexit. However, the UK is hiding behind the EU since it needs its muscle to prevent the US action going on without end. I think the UK will say it wants to curb the measures, then fall back in line if they come into place.”

The EU may have once thought about including financial services in trade deals but won't do for the Brits. It's time for the UK to get real give hopes on "mutual recognition", writes Samuel Lowe at the Centre for European Reform: "Behind closed doors, member-state representatives say that comprehensive mutual recognition is not something an FTA can allow in and of itself. It would also require the EU to change many of its laws, which only provide certain rights to financial institutions incorporated within the territories of member-states of the EU and the European Economic Area. In itself, this would not be an impossible hurdle to clear, but it would require the will to offer mutual recognition in the first place, which is currently absent on the continent."