Research
Britten beginnen te accepteren dat de brexit een slecht idee was
04 January 2023
Het Financieele Dagblad
Het Centre for European Reform (CER), een Britse denktank, houdt al jaren bij hoe de prestaties van de Britse economie zich verhouden tot wat verwacht zou mogen worden als het VK bij de EU was gebleven. Daarvoor werden de prestaties van 22 andere landen in een computermodel gestopt om een 'dubbelganger' van het VK te maken, die zich voor de brexit vrijwel identiek gedroeg als het echte VK.
The impact of Brexit, in charts: How has leaving the EU affected Britain?
03 January 2023
The Economist
John Springford of the CER, tries to isolate the effect of Brexit by constructing a phantom country that tracked Britain’s performance before 2016’s referendum result. By using an algorithm to pick from a set of 22 countries rather than just selecting, say, a few economies of a similar size, he builds a plausible description of Britain’s path had it not voted to leave the eu (see chart 1). He estimates that by the second quarter of 2022, Brexit had hit gdp by as much as 6% relative to this counterfactual. Using the same method, he reckons that Brexit dragged down investment by 11%.
War in Ukraine bolstered EU solidarity — will it last?
03 January 2023
Voice of America
“At the moment, solidarity is pretty strong” among European citizens, said John Springford, deputy director for the Centre for European Reform think-tank. “But if the Ukraine war turns into a complete stalemate, things might get more difficult.”
Michael Heseltine: Fifty years ago, we joined the EU – today, I deplore the deception of Brexit
02 January 2023
The Independent
The UK economy is over 5 per cent smaller, says the Centre for European Reform, than it would have been without Brexit.
The A to Z of Brexit being done
02 January 2023
The Independent
C- Customs: Although the picture was initially confused by coronavirus, the effect on trade of leaving the single market two years ago was immediate and negative. It is now possible to quantify the damage. John Springford of the Centre for European Reform estimates that national income is 5.5 per cent lower than it would otherwise have been.
Ceska Televize: Dobře odvedená práce za velmi složitých podmínek, hodnotí komentátoři z Bruselu Čechy
02 January 2023
„Celkově to byl fantastický výkon, zvláště proto, o jak těžkou dobu se jednalo,“ hodnotí české předsednictví vedoucí bruselské kanceláře Centra pro evropskou reformu Camino Mortera-Martinez.
Brexit: The scorecard two years on
02 January 2023
BBC News Scotland
The Centre for Economic Performance reckons that including that "dynamic" effect of Brexit could increase its impact on potential output to a hit of between between 6.3% and 9.5%, and the Centre for European Reform suggests the impact may have been a shortfall by up to 11% of the output that might have been expected.
Brexit regret: Why the ‘undeniable disaster’ finally hit home with the British public in 2022
01 January 2023
The Independent
In December, the Centre for European Reform (CER) found that Brexit cost the UK a staggering £33bn in lost trade, investment and growth. The CER also estimated the tax loss from Brexit at around £40bn. The research – first shared with The Independent – showed that by June of this year Britain’s economy was 5.5 per cent smaller than it would have been if the country had remained in the EU.
Keir Starmer is ready to betray die-hard Remainers who ushered him in
01 January 2023
The Telegraph
But so far, Britain's departure has, from an economic perspective, been unambiguously negative. You can take it with a pinch of salt if you like, but the Centre for European Reform recently estimated that UK GDP is 5.5pc smaller because of Brexit, which is equivalent to around £40bn annually in tax revenue, or enough to pay for virtually all of Liz Truss's doomed tax cutting agenda.
When will Ukraine join the EU – and how is Ireland helping the cause?
31 December 2022
The Irish Times
Because of rampant problems within the western Balkans, the challenge is huge. “None is close to joining the EU,” says Luigi Scazzieri, a senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform. “They must all overcome substantial hurdles to meet the Copenhagen criteria, which define the EU’s standards on strong democratic institutions, a functioning market economy and the ability to take on the obligations of membership.”
Europe's energy sacrifices: The winter test of resolve
30 December 2022
Financial Times
“Everyone is talking about energy costs and comparing energy bills and that brings people together,” says Elisabetta Cornago, senior research fellow in energy at the Centre for European Reform. “Citizens want to see businesses, shops, and public entities save energy just as they are doing at home. Reducing very visible energy consumption like public lighting and shop signs, those things individually probably don’t make a big difference but it is about trying to put together a lot of relatively small consumption cuts and the visible ones can be highly motivating.”
Post-Brexit Guide: What's been the impact — and how did it happen?
29 December 2022
Euronews
A report by the Centre for European Reform in December 2022 is the latest to illustrate how Brexit has hit the UK's GDP, investment and trade.
UK traders on Brexit: ‘It’s increased paperwork, stress, everything’
27 December 2022
The Guardian
But John Springford, of the Centre for European Reform, says it’s important to track the UK’s performance against other, similar economies – an approach he calls the “doppelganger method”.“If you compare UK trade after leaving the single market to UK trade before, then you’re not really comparing apples with apples, because you need to compare with other countries. There’s been a big global goods trade boom since the end of the pandemic,” he says.
Brexit: The EU may have moved on, but the UK remains trapped in a doom cycle
27 December 2022
iNews
“Ukraine has opened the EU’s eyes to the fact that there are a lot of big boys in the world and they have to play at the same level,” says Camino Mortera-Martinez, head of the Brussels office at the Centre for European Reform. “It has given the EU confidence – and brought it together more than anything else. And it is the first time that the EU has found a crisis that fits it well.”
Crise au Royaume-Uni : comment le Brexit a détérioré l’économie britannique
26 December 2022
Le Parisien
Dans un article publié le 21 décembre, le Centre for European Reform (CER) estimait qu’au 2e trimestre 2022, le PIB britannique était inférieur de 5,5 % à ce qu’il aurait été si le pays était resté dans l’UE.
Tony’s picks of the week
24 December 2022
Financial Times
The UK’s gross domestic product, investment and foreign goods trade have all taken a substantial hit as a result of Brexit, John Springford calculates in an analysis for the Centre for European Reform think-tank.
Brexit chickens come home to roost
23 December 2022
The Herald Scotland
A particularly stark report on the cost of Brexit was published on Wednesday by the Centre for European Reform (CER) think-tank. CER deputy director John Springford’s latest report on the impact of leaving the EU on the UK economy estimates that Brexit had, by the second quarter of 2022, reduced the country’s gross domestic product by 5.5 per cent. That is a very big amount indeed.
Comienza una nueva era de política exterior finlandesa
23 December 2022
ES Global
La invasión rusa de Ucrania ha provocado unos cambios sin precedentes en la política exterior finlandesa. La solicitud de ingreso en la OTAN no debe ser más que el principio.
Brexit snarling again amid more grim economic news
23 December 2022
The Independent
John Springford at the Centre for European Reform, who has been tracking its increasingly dire impact on the UK economy, released his latest update this week.Based on the performance of similar countries before and after the event, he calculated that the UK’s economy was 5.5 per cent smaller in the second quarter of the year than it otherwise would have been. In real money, economic output was £33bn lower and tax revenues were £12bn lower.
Rocks and hard places
22 December 2022
Politico London Playbook
With organizations like the Centre for European Reform painting stark pictures about the GDP hit from Brexit (5.5 percent, according to John Springford) the red flashing lights don’t appear on the verge of dimming. And that means the debate about whether Brexit was such a good idea will continue to rage, while public sentiment gurgles beneath the surface.